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2024 Guinness Six Nations
Maro Itoje - the greatest rugby player of all time, is he there already?
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<blockquote data-quote="Every Time Ref" data-source="post: 786630" data-attributes="member: 71826"><p>There are too many variables to ever be able to accurately predict who is going to be world class. Talent is just one of them - even if your assessment of Slade's talent is 100% accurate, you have no idea how personality, coaching, injuries, personal circumstances, the whims of selectors and other factors might affect his future.</p><p></p><p>There's a lot more luck in the world, and in sport, than people like to admit. For example, the International Monetary Fund conducted a study of international cricketers, studying various statistical trends to analyse the role of luck in determining success. Batsmen making their debut at home had a higher average by 30% (I think ... can't remember exact figure). Different sport, but that shows an incredible degree of variation in success based on one seemingly arbitrary fact.</p><p></p><p>Everyone remembers that Jonny Wilkinson was predicted for greatness from very early on. You have to remember that so were a load of names listed above, and any number of other players who turned out to be duds.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Every Time Ref, post: 786630, member: 71826"] There are too many variables to ever be able to accurately predict who is going to be world class. Talent is just one of them - even if your assessment of Slade's talent is 100% accurate, you have no idea how personality, coaching, injuries, personal circumstances, the whims of selectors and other factors might affect his future. There's a lot more luck in the world, and in sport, than people like to admit. For example, the International Monetary Fund conducted a study of international cricketers, studying various statistical trends to analyse the role of luck in determining success. Batsmen making their debut at home had a higher average by 30% (I think ... can't remember exact figure). Different sport, but that shows an incredible degree of variation in success based on one seemingly arbitrary fact. Everyone remembers that Jonny Wilkinson was predicted for greatness from very early on. You have to remember that so were a load of names listed above, and any number of other players who turned out to be duds. [/QUOTE]
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2024 Guinness Six Nations
Maro Itoje - the greatest rugby player of all time, is he there already?
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