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Mind the Gap (between Tiers)
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<blockquote data-quote="Bruce_ma gooshvili" data-source="post: 1067922" data-attributes="member: 74121"><p><strong>2021 - Tier 2 to Tier 1 gap review</strong></p><p></p><p>There is a lot of projects bubbling away that are unfortunately being hampered by the pandemic. If they can survive, then MLR, SLAR, RESC & Toyota Challenge all have potential to accelerate development of Tier2 and Tier3 nations. </p><p></p><p>The best way to gauge the gap between Tiers is to look at results of matches between Tiers. In the End of Year Tests (EOYT) I consider the following fixtures were one where a Tier2 had a greater than 5% chance of beating a Tier1 or a Tier2 with favoured status.</p><p></p><p>- 23/10 Japan vs Australia (Aus win)</p><p>- 6/11 Ireland vs Japan (Ire win)</p><p>- 6/11 Spain vs Fiji (Fiji win)</p><p>- 20/11 Scotland vs Japan (Sco win)</p><p>- 20/11 Romania vs Tonga (Rom win)</p><p>- 20/11 Italy vs Uruguay (Ita win)</p><p>- 20/11 Georgia vs Fiji (draw)</p><p>- Portugal vs Japan (Jap win)</p><p></p><p>All but one of the above resulted in the underdog failing to win, so it looks negative. However only Japan being thumped by Ireland and Spain losing badly to Fiji were uncompetitive. Romania defeated a strong Tonga selection essentially only using players from Steaua Bucharest (runners up in the Superliga). </p><p></p><p>Japan did decent against Australia and Scotland, but almost lost to Portugal. Uruguay kept the score very respectable against Italy. In summer, Romania hosted Argentina and almost defeated them. Georgia, look as competitive against RSA and France as Italy would be, possibly more so. I'd argue that for so many of the above fixtures to be competitive games is a positive sign. </p><p></p><p><em>2022 - Tier2s to Watch</em></p><p></p><p>Pacific Islands - change in eligibility rule could potentially massively raise their level. New teams in Super Rugby for Fiji (Drua) and Tonga/Samoa (Moana Pacifika) means they will be able to cultivate younger prospects and provide pro contracts for interested players raised by other unions. </p><p></p><p>Japan - raising the standard of their domestic league with big contracts, but in a sensible way that will not ignore players developed at age grade by the Japanese union. Could potentially use 6N as leverage to pressurise The Rugby Championship into admitting them into the competition. </p><p></p><p>Georgia - pro contracts in the RESC. Top players in all positions getting exposure in the French league, not just forwards. Can consistently score tries in open play against Tier1 sides and showing improvement in play by backs. Should be hosting Italy this summer. </p><p></p><p>Romania - almost defeated a first XV Argentina. Great new modern stadium. Defeated first string Tonga with a second string Romanian side exclusively from the domestic league. Like Georgia, transitioning to better play by the backs. However, involvement in RESC and/or Toyota Challenge unclear and ongoing financial concerns for the domestic Superliga. </p><p></p><p>Uruguay - improving consistently via SLAR, already qualified for RWC. Ran Italy close in Italy. </p><p></p><p>Chile - meteoric rise via SLAR for a young side with average age of 24 and experimental selections at flyhalf and wing. Lots of upward potential yet and may qualify for RWC direct or via the repechage. Lack of depth in some positions so must avoid injuries. </p><p></p><p>Portugal - second only to Chile in the meteoric rise stakes. Almost defeated Japan and took some scalps in the REC. Chance of RWC qualification. Could improve further via RESC. </p><p></p><p>Russia - hired a new coach with excellent pedigree and expertise in youth and coach development (although this will likely result only in improvement over the longer term). Professional league seems well established and involved in RESC, so gaining access to additional games against Georgian pros. </p><p></p><p><em>Stagnating</em> - Canada, Brazil, Spain (subject to an emergency performance review by World Rugby in November) and possibly USA (very nice league seems firmly established but questionmarks around national team coach and hindered by the demise of the Americas Rugby Championship of the 6 best national teams in the Americas).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Bruce_ma gooshvili, post: 1067922, member: 74121"] [B]2021 - Tier 2 to Tier 1 gap review[/B] There is a lot of projects bubbling away that are unfortunately being hampered by the pandemic. If they can survive, then MLR, SLAR, RESC & Toyota Challenge all have potential to accelerate development of Tier2 and Tier3 nations. The best way to gauge the gap between Tiers is to look at results of matches between Tiers. In the End of Year Tests (EOYT) I consider the following fixtures were one where a Tier2 had a greater than 5% chance of beating a Tier1 or a Tier2 with favoured status. - 23/10 Japan vs Australia (Aus win) - 6/11 Ireland vs Japan (Ire win) - 6/11 Spain vs Fiji (Fiji win) - 20/11 Scotland vs Japan (Sco win) - 20/11 Romania vs Tonga (Rom win) - 20/11 Italy vs Uruguay (Ita win) - 20/11 Georgia vs Fiji (draw) - Portugal vs Japan (Jap win) All but one of the above resulted in the underdog failing to win, so it looks negative. However only Japan being thumped by Ireland and Spain losing badly to Fiji were uncompetitive. Romania defeated a strong Tonga selection essentially only using players from Steaua Bucharest (runners up in the Superliga). Japan did decent against Australia and Scotland, but almost lost to Portugal. Uruguay kept the score very respectable against Italy. In summer, Romania hosted Argentina and almost defeated them. Georgia, look as competitive against RSA and France as Italy would be, possibly more so. I'd argue that for so many of the above fixtures to be competitive games is a positive sign. [I]2022 - Tier2s to Watch[/I] Pacific Islands - change in eligibility rule could potentially massively raise their level. New teams in Super Rugby for Fiji (Drua) and Tonga/Samoa (Moana Pacifika) means they will be able to cultivate younger prospects and provide pro contracts for interested players raised by other unions. Japan - raising the standard of their domestic league with big contracts, but in a sensible way that will not ignore players developed at age grade by the Japanese union. Could potentially use 6N as leverage to pressurise The Rugby Championship into admitting them into the competition. Georgia - pro contracts in the RESC. Top players in all positions getting exposure in the French league, not just forwards. Can consistently score tries in open play against Tier1 sides and showing improvement in play by backs. Should be hosting Italy this summer. Romania - almost defeated a first XV Argentina. Great new modern stadium. Defeated first string Tonga with a second string Romanian side exclusively from the domestic league. Like Georgia, transitioning to better play by the backs. However, involvement in RESC and/or Toyota Challenge unclear and ongoing financial concerns for the domestic Superliga. Uruguay - improving consistently via SLAR, already qualified for RWC. Ran Italy close in Italy. Chile - meteoric rise via SLAR for a young side with average age of 24 and experimental selections at flyhalf and wing. Lots of upward potential yet and may qualify for RWC direct or via the repechage. Lack of depth in some positions so must avoid injuries. Portugal - second only to Chile in the meteoric rise stakes. Almost defeated Japan and took some scalps in the REC. Chance of RWC qualification. Could improve further via RESC. Russia - hired a new coach with excellent pedigree and expertise in youth and coach development (although this will likely result only in improvement over the longer term). Professional league seems well established and involved in RESC, so gaining access to additional games against Georgian pros. [I]Stagnating[/I] - Canada, Brazil, Spain (subject to an emergency performance review by World Rugby in November) and possibly USA (very nice league seems firmly established but questionmarks around national team coach and hindered by the demise of the Americas Rugby Championship of the 6 best national teams in the Americas). [/QUOTE]
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