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Cruz_del_Sur

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I get your point. Not that long ago i watched a video where Mendez (IM and Khabib's coach) talked a bit about their differences and he said that IM took stand-up coaching from everyone while Khabib, probably out of a sense of loyalty that JM says was not required, was only coached by him in that aspect. That shaped their styles.

I get (and agree!) when people say that KN is amazing at avoiding damage while on his feet. Incredible stuff but again, as you mentioned, given his style not many go all in against him.
So that leaves his stand-up offense. I see him move and strike, and i put IM both above CO and KN. Again, stand up offense alone.
Let me put it this way, if the 3 were to box, i have little doubt IM beats both of them.

I think we're reading this quite similarly. Most of the poeple CO has faced, when on top, are focused on not getting submitted. I believe IM will be focused on making damage.
I guess if you talk to people from IM camp they will argue it's hard to work on a sub while getting elbowed ad nauseam on the face and if you ask people from the other camp they'll say that is precisely what will open opportunities for an elite bjjer to take adv of.
We'll know the answer soon enough.
 

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TRF_Olyy

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Birmingham.

Mixed Martial Arts Sport GIF by UFC
 

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First person to ever (officially) take Usman down, first person to beat him in the UFC, first person to knock him out

I went nuts when it happened
 

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Gane vs Tuivasa the best HW fight in years,
Such a shame Aspinall is out for so long now, would love to see him vs Gane

Don't know what this means for the division now - Blaydes vs Gane the fight to make but doubt Gane will want a quick turn around after taking so many heavy shots, and then Ngannou wants to fight in early 23 but is also still saying he wants to box so he might not even be in the UFC in the new year
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Oldie but i hadnt seen it tbh. I nearly peed my pants.


 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Did you guys see nate vs tony? Jesus christ.
Couldnt help thinking what khabib would have done to him. Even at tony's best.

To be honest, i had tony, specially in the first two rounds. I thought given Tony's chin, kicks and Nate's not particularly strong punches it would be rather one sided event, on the stand up, course. All tony had to do was chop, chop, chop against a guy who never knocked out anybody, not get entangled in dirty ****, etc. Both's bjj canceled each other out.
God was i wrong.

After all the talk about how good he was with his bjj, how he was hyper mega super dangerous, even from his back.... he gets submitted in that fashion?
I still dont fully get how Nate's second hand was closing the guillotine.
I mean, we're all armchair warriors here, sure, but doesnt that look like a rather stupid, nearly amateur mistake?
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Just checked. Nate gets performance of the night and chimaev doesn't? Is it because he missed weight or something?
He literally went in, rushed, looked for the spot and submitted his oponent. All under 3 mins. He never gave him an inch, relentless and agressive.
 

TRF_Olyy

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Yeah, if you miss weight you're ineligible for bonuses

Khabib definitely would've beaten Tony in their primes but it's still sad to see how much father time has taken from Tony, he's a shadow of his former self
That said it was a much much better fight than the two that were originally scheduled - two TUF veterans, no weight cuts, lotta respect, just going in there to have fun
I'm glad Diaz went out like that

Khamzat is just another level. He shouldn't get a ***le shot off of a weight miss but who else is there? He looks levels above almost everyone
At WW he could fight Colby but I think his explosiveness will see him run through Colby
If the UFC forces him up to 185 I want to see him vs Whittaker - that's a very interesting fight

Also thought Leech was robbed
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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I was thinking about those two fights. I actually think Colby stops him. I see colby weathering the storm the first two rounds and my gut tells me Colby's tank is considerably deeper than chimaev.
And whittaker is a beast. I quite like him, so i am biassed. They way he analyzes fighters/fights. Or maybe tons of people do the same, it's just that he is way more eloquent at expressing those thoughts.

Dunno, i see both whittaker and colby as smart fighters who will do their research, find holes in khamzat's game and exploit them. Sounds crazy but i think he is too agressive and i dont see him being able to keep that pace for 25 minutes. Especially with colby.

Given recent evetns i wouldnt mind seeing costa vs chimaev either.
 

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Do agree on Colby's skillset but time is ticking, MMA (especially the wrestling aspect) is a young man's game and he'll likely be 35 by the time he's back in the octagon
I think he's been relatively injury free when compared to the other wrestlers in the game (look at the likes of DC, Fedor, Dan Henderson in their later years, unable to wrestle because of the wear and tear) but it'll wear his body out sooner or later
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Something interesting. I understand the odds are 3-1 (makhachev) but when i watched the videos of pros they all (except people who are friends, same camp, etc) appear to favour Olivera. To different degrees, but they all think Olivera takes the win.
I dont see it. I really, really dont. I dont see CO stopping the takedown and once on the ground, well, no matter how good your bjj is, hard to get a game plan executed when soeome is elbowing your face.

Can CO know the lights out. Possible, but very, very unlikely imo.
Can CO submit him? Possible but again, i dont see it.

If there is one and ONLY one thing these guys (khabib, makhachev) are ridiculously good at, is dodging risks, dangerous situations, getting stuck in silly positions. They have a plan, a method that works and i've yet to see a strat that can stop it. They are not the greatest standing up fighters but they are good enough to avoid big damage. And to stop their plan you either have to

a) Continously stop their take downs
b) take em down yourself and land on top

I do not see CO being able to do either.

These guys (again) are very good at taking you down and then gaining a position from which they can do damage without risking getting submitted. This is their thing, their core competence. I believe CO needs that mistake to win and odds are, IM won't give him that platform from which to build a sub.

I like numbers and i see CO needing to take chances to win, and that doesnt really improve his odds imo.
Say Co comes out of the gates guns blazing, etc.... IM takes two steps back, goes for a single, puts him against the fence, spends the next 2 minutes securing position and the last 2 min landing elbows from the top.
Does CO have a better chance as the fight goes to rounds 3-4-5. I dont think so. I really, dont think so. People can hardly keep up with their pace for 2 rounds. I'd be surprised, actually flabbergasted if IM's endurance wasnt the best in the division.

I've yet to see/hear a strategy that dominates what IM brings to the table. It comes down to a) & b) above. Can they stop him. I dont think anyone in the division can.
I would LOVE for people to go for b), but i am not optimistic.
Remember, these guys are not risk takers, they believe in their method and it has yielded them amazing results. The other day someone countered, or tried to, bringing up Fedor vs Werdum. As in 'fedor's strat worked wonders until it didnt'. The thing is, Fedor's went guns blazing on such positions, his ground and pound were lethal. IM goes inch by inch, slowly, ties your legs, and once he has secured the position and only then, goes for the damage. And yes, the damage is not Fedor's strenght but it goes on, and on, and on, and on...

These guys (Khabib-Islam-Khabib's father- Mendez & AKA & Cornier, etc) is a bit like Guardiola's Barcelona. You have the talent, the right strat/plan, the right people surrounded by the (also) the right people, right place, right time...
These are one a million situations. Sure, they can lose, but they play the odds and those are in their favour.
 

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I understand the odds are 3-1 (makhachev) but when i watched the videos of pros they all (except people who are friends, same camp, etc) appear to favour Olivera.
I think a part of it is how likeable CO is, he's taken over from Frankie Edgar as "your favourite fighter's favourite fighter"
 

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Well Charles' tactic of getting flatlined every fight but somehow coming back to win afterwards came back to bite him in the bum
Reckon Islam has the belt until he retires now - outgrappled the best grappler in the division and has good enough hands that people have to take him seriously on the feet so he can set up his takedowns
If Volk were bigger that'd be an interesting matchup but he'll just get outmuscled pretty easily

O'Malley did infinitely better than expected - think he should have lost the decision but I expected him to get steamrolled
If he's next for Aljo that's got potential: Aljos standup is straight trash, worst in the division, and O'Malleys TDD is trash too
O'Malley manages distance well, and has significant speed/striking advantage, but once Aljo gets hold its likely gameover
Could be a fun one rounder
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Quite a few thoughts. If you're bored, course.

The IM vs CO fight was a bit like i expectd but not so much. I think mentioned here earlier that i thought IM's standup was better than CO's, but what i saw was quite brutal. Did CO even land one clean shot? Clean leg kick? IM looked clean, sharp, tight. Very, very, very good. Nothing flashy but solid all along. The kind of stand up i adore.

I expected IM to take him down (no surprise there) but to go very slowly and safely after that. You know, tie the legs, secure position and then let the elbows go. I wonder what Gaetje and Poirier thought after watching the fight. Maybe that impregnable defense that everyone marketed as a death trap was worth taking a jab at.
I did not expect CO to get submitted, least of all, tapping out like that.

One comment about AV. I mentioned before i favoured IM vs CO because, other than a lucky punch ko, i genuinely couldnt (still cant) see what CO can do to beat him.
I do see how AV could win this. It's a long shot, but i do see a way. I still favour IM thouh, just so we are clear.

I place AV in a class of his own. Almost. Nearly all the greats either stayed a LONG time in their class dominating (anderson silva, gsp, etc) and bragging about such dominance, and even rightly so. Sure, GSP won the middleweight ***tle but to be fair, we won it against Bisping. And no disrespect to Bisping (huge fan of his) but he was not the greatest champ the division has had. And Gsp never defended that ***tle. He's not dumb. Even KN didnt do that. If you are so dominant and no one is at your level, why not just go up a weight class? I actaully cannot believe how journalists never cornered him with this. The only one that comes to mind a bit to counter my argument was BJ Penn, but you could argue that didnt end up well.

Now back to AV. The guy has completely dominated his division. He won... and they questioned the call. So he fought again. They questioned the call again. So he agreed to fight a third time (as his manager i would have done everything i could to prevent this from happening) and won, again, more convincingly than anyone expected. Against some pretty bloody good competition. Max is a monster.

So having cleared the division, he did what a true, genuine natural competitor would to: he looked for a tougher challenge and called out both the best fighters in a category above his. You could add CMcG to the list, but i think he got very lucky with the draw, fought people who were 'circumstantial' champs and never defended his belt. Not giving Aldo a rematch was poor imo. From him and the ufc.

Two points about AV. First: He, unlike many who've done this before, challeneged the two best fighters of the division above his while both were at their peak. These are two guys that are arguably top 5 in the category ever.
The second point i want to make is size/height. Many of the fighters that could have moved up didnt, EVEN when their height/weight would have been a natural fit for the weight class above. AV is taking some serious risks in terms of height/range here. Sure, you can go with the lower centre of mass thingie, etc.
I think we all agree range matters.

I have nothing, absolutely nothing but respect for AV and what he is doing.

Say the weight clases were A-B-C. Most of the multiple weight classes champs were something like a B- saw a weaker category in A-C and took the chance. Or they were huge Bs that waled around as already Big Cs.
AV is not that. Sure he used to play rugby, bla-bla-bla. His natural wc is 145. He's never struggled to make weight, never complained about it and has tens of fights in that wc.

Hats off to him. Again, i think IM is the favourite but i can see a way for AV to win. He is slippery, fast, bounces back up and he can punch. Potentially IM will catch him, eventually, and bring him down. The questions i have are
How much damage can AV deliver in the process
How much damage can IM deliver on the ground till AV gets back up
I dont know.

Both have paces that are just ridiculous. Again, favourite is IM. If everything goes ' as planned' i think IM's plan and arsenal are stronger.
 

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