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<blockquote data-quote="Cruz_del_Sur" data-source="post: 1103451" data-attributes="member: 55747"><p>Something interesting. I understand the odds are 3-1 (makhachev) but when i watched the videos of pros they all (except people who are friends, same camp, etc) appear to favour Olivera. To different degrees, but they all think Olivera takes the win. </p><p>I dont see it. I really, really dont. I dont see CO stopping the takedown and once on the ground, well, no matter how good your bjj is, hard to get a game plan executed when soeome is elbowing your face. </p><p></p><p>Can CO know the lights out. Possible, but very, very unlikely imo. </p><p>Can CO submit him? Possible but again, i dont see it. </p><p></p><p>If there is one and ONLY one thing these guys (khabib, makhachev) are ridiculously good at, is dodging risks, dangerous situations, getting stuck in silly positions. They have a plan, a method that works and i've yet to see a strat that can stop it. They are not the greatest standing up fighters but they are good enough to avoid big damage. And to stop their plan you either have to</p><p></p><p>a) Continously stop their take downs</p><p>b) take em down yourself and land on top</p><p></p><p>I do not see CO being able to do either. </p><p></p><p>These guys (again) are very good at taking you down and then gaining a position from which they can do damage without risking getting submitted. This is their thing, their core competence. I believe CO needs that mistake to win and odds are, IM won't give him that platform from which to build a sub. </p><p></p><p>I like numbers and i see CO needing to take chances to win, and that doesnt really improve his odds imo. </p><p>Say Co comes out of the gates guns blazing, etc.... IM takes two steps back, goes for a single, puts him against the fence, spends the next 2 minutes securing position and the last 2 min landing elbows from the top. </p><p>Does CO have a better chance as the fight goes to rounds 3-4-5. I dont think so. I really, dont think so. People can hardly keep up with their pace for 2 rounds. I'd be surprised, actually flabbergasted if IM's endurance wasnt the best in the division. </p><p></p><p>I've yet to see/hear a strategy that dominates what IM brings to the table. It comes down to a) & b) above. Can they stop him. I dont think anyone in the division can. </p><p>I would LOVE for people to go for b), but i am not optimistic. </p><p>Remember, these guys are not risk takers, they believe in their method and it has yielded them amazing results. The other day someone countered, or tried to, bringing up Fedor vs Werdum. As in 'fedor's strat worked wonders until it didnt'. The thing is, Fedor's went guns blazing on such positions, his ground and pound were lethal. IM goes inch by inch, slowly, ties your legs, and once he has secured the position and only then, goes for the damage. And yes, the damage is not Fedor's strenght but it goes on, and on, and on, and on...</p><p></p><p>These guys (Khabib-Islam-Khabib's father- Mendez & AKA & Cornier, etc) is a bit like Guardiola's Barcelona. You have the talent, the right strat/plan, the right people surrounded by the (also) the right people, right place, right time...</p><p>These are one a million situations. Sure, they can lose, but they play the odds and those are in their favour.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Cruz_del_Sur, post: 1103451, member: 55747"] Something interesting. I understand the odds are 3-1 (makhachev) but when i watched the videos of pros they all (except people who are friends, same camp, etc) appear to favour Olivera. To different degrees, but they all think Olivera takes the win. I dont see it. I really, really dont. I dont see CO stopping the takedown and once on the ground, well, no matter how good your bjj is, hard to get a game plan executed when soeome is elbowing your face. Can CO know the lights out. Possible, but very, very unlikely imo. Can CO submit him? Possible but again, i dont see it. If there is one and ONLY one thing these guys (khabib, makhachev) are ridiculously good at, is dodging risks, dangerous situations, getting stuck in silly positions. They have a plan, a method that works and i've yet to see a strat that can stop it. They are not the greatest standing up fighters but they are good enough to avoid big damage. And to stop their plan you either have to a) Continously stop their take downs b) take em down yourself and land on top I do not see CO being able to do either. These guys (again) are very good at taking you down and then gaining a position from which they can do damage without risking getting submitted. This is their thing, their core competence. I believe CO needs that mistake to win and odds are, IM won't give him that platform from which to build a sub. I like numbers and i see CO needing to take chances to win, and that doesnt really improve his odds imo. Say Co comes out of the gates guns blazing, etc.... IM takes two steps back, goes for a single, puts him against the fence, spends the next 2 minutes securing position and the last 2 min landing elbows from the top. Does CO have a better chance as the fight goes to rounds 3-4-5. I dont think so. I really, dont think so. People can hardly keep up with their pace for 2 rounds. I'd be surprised, actually flabbergasted if IM's endurance wasnt the best in the division. I've yet to see/hear a strategy that dominates what IM brings to the table. It comes down to a) & b) above. Can they stop him. I dont think anyone in the division can. I would LOVE for people to go for b), but i am not optimistic. Remember, these guys are not risk takers, they believe in their method and it has yielded them amazing results. The other day someone countered, or tried to, bringing up Fedor vs Werdum. As in 'fedor's strat worked wonders until it didnt'. The thing is, Fedor's went guns blazing on such positions, his ground and pound were lethal. IM goes inch by inch, slowly, ties your legs, and once he has secured the position and only then, goes for the damage. And yes, the damage is not Fedor's strenght but it goes on, and on, and on, and on... These guys (Khabib-Islam-Khabib's father- Mendez & AKA & Cornier, etc) is a bit like Guardiola's Barcelona. You have the talent, the right strat/plan, the right people surrounded by the (also) the right people, right place, right time... These are one a million situations. Sure, they can lose, but they play the odds and those are in their favour. [/QUOTE]
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