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November tests and IRB rankings
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<blockquote data-quote="ZeFrenchy" data-source="post: 534861" data-attributes="member: 47244"><p>Hey guys. I had some free time, so I built up a table to figure out the possible ranking changes this November. I'll explain how I did it and how to use it.</p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>What the numbers below mean: </strong>The numbers below are (negative) 1/10 of the rating difference taking the home advantage handicap and capped to a magnitude of 1, which is how the IRB rankings are calculated.</p><p></p><p><strong>How to obtain them: </strong>Take, for instance, the game between France and Australia. Australia's rating is 86.37, and France's is 86.06 (the actual ranking plus 3 pts for home advantage handicap). The difference is 0.31, so 1/10th of it is 0.03.</p><p></p><p><strong>How to use these numbers: </strong>The numbers below represent the ratings change if a match is drawn. If a team wins a game, you have to add 1 to the number below, whereas if they lose, you substract 1. If the difference is more than 15 points, you multiply them by 1.5. Thus, if France wins by more than 15 points, we gain 1.5*(1+0.03)=1.55 points. In any case, the points that are won by a side are lost by the opponent (zero-sum). The explanation is taken from the IRB website.</p><p></p><p>[TABLE="class: grid, width: 700"]</p><p><colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]</p><p>[TD]Ranking[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Country[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Rating[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Match 1[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Match 2[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Match 3[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Match 4[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]</p><p>[TD]New Zealand[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]92,91[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,76[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,68[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Australia[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]86,37[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,03[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,03[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,73[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,11[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]</p><p>[TD]South Africa[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]84,69[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,18[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,37[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,14[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]</p><p>[TD]England[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]83,09[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,03[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,14[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,68[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]</p><p>[TD]France[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]83,03[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,03[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,74[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,98[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Wales[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]82,26[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,66[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,90[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,76[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,11[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Ireland[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]79,85[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,18[/TD]</p><p>[TD]NA[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,42[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Argentina[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]78,63[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,66[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,74[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,42[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Scotland[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]77,97[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,37[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,62[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Samoa[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]76,23[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,39[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,90[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,98[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Italy[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]76,03[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,42[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,73[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Tonga[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]74,79[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,42[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,82[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,62[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Canada[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]72,3[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,39[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Fiji[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]70,6[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD]NA[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,04[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Georgia[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]67,95[/TD]</p><p>[TD]NA[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,30[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,04[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Japan[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]67,93[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,04[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,30[/TD]</p><p>[TD]NA[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]</p><p>[TD]USA[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]66,61[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,46[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,82[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,09[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Romania[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]64,54[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,04[/TD]</p><p>[TD]NA[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]-0,09[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]</p><p>[TD]Russia[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]62,05[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]0,46[/TD]</p><p>[TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD]</p><p>[TD]NA[/TD]</p><p>[TD] [/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD][/TD]</p><p>[TD][/TD]</p><p>[TD][/TD]</p><p>[TD][/TD]</p><p>[TD][/TD]</p><p>[TD][/TD]</p><p>[TD][/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p></tbody>[/TABLE]</p><p></p><p>Now go do your math. The 4th place is up for grabs. Example: if France win all three games by 15 points or less, we will get 1.31 points (1.03 from Australia, 0.26 from Argentina and 0.02 from Samoa), making a total of 84.34. If England lose againt the All Blacks and win the rest, all by 15 or less, they will get 0.57 points (0 from Fiji, 1.03 from Australia, 0.86 from South Africa and -0.32 from NZ), making a total of 83.66 and thus losing the fourth spot.</p><p></p><p>The 8th spot is also interesting and, imo, is a lot more important than tha fourth one. A 9th place in the rankings makes it sure that you will have 2 tier 1 nations in tour pool, whereas an 8th spot makes it a 25% chance.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ZeFrenchy, post: 534861, member: 47244"] Hey guys. I had some free time, so I built up a table to figure out the possible ranking changes this November. I'll explain how I did it and how to use it. [B] What the numbers below mean: [/B]The numbers below are (negative) 1/10 of the rating difference taking the home advantage handicap and capped to a magnitude of 1, which is how the IRB rankings are calculated. [B]How to obtain them: [/B]Take, for instance, the game between France and Australia. Australia's rating is 86.37, and France's is 86.06 (the actual ranking plus 3 pts for home advantage handicap). The difference is 0.31, so 1/10th of it is 0.03. [B]How to use these numbers: [/B]The numbers below represent the ratings change if a match is drawn. If a team wins a game, you have to add 1 to the number below, whereas if they lose, you substract 1. If the difference is more than 15 points, you multiply them by 1.5. Thus, if France wins by more than 15 points, we gain 1.5*(1+0.03)=1.55 points. In any case, the points that are won by a side are lost by the opponent (zero-sum). The explanation is taken from the IRB website. [TABLE="class: grid, width: 700"] <colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR] [TD]Ranking[/TD] [TD]Country[/TD] [TD]Rating[/TD] [TD]Match 1[/TD] [TD]Match 2[/TD] [TD]Match 3[/TD] [TD]Match 4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]1[/TD] [TD]New Zealand[/TD] [TD="align: right"]92,91[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,76[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD]Australia[/TD] [TD="align: right"]86,37[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,03[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,03[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,73[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD]South Africa[/TD] [TD="align: right"]84,69[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,18[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,37[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,14[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD]England[/TD] [TD="align: right"]83,09[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,03[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,14[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD]France[/TD] [TD="align: right"]83,03[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,03[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,74[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,98[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD]Wales[/TD] [TD="align: right"]82,26[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,66[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,90[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,76[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]7[/TD] [TD]Ireland[/TD] [TD="align: right"]79,85[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,18[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,42[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]8[/TD] [TD]Argentina[/TD] [TD="align: right"]78,63[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,66[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,74[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,42[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]9[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD="align: right"]77,97[/TD] [TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,37[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,62[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]10[/TD] [TD]Samoa[/TD] [TD="align: right"]76,23[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,39[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,90[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,98[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]11[/TD] [TD]Italy[/TD] [TD="align: right"]76,03[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,42[/TD] [TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,73[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]12[/TD] [TD]Tonga[/TD] [TD="align: right"]74,79[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,42[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,82[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,62[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]13[/TD] [TD]Canada[/TD] [TD="align: right"]72,3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,39[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-1,00[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]14[/TD] [TD]Fiji[/TD] [TD="align: right"]70,6[/TD] [TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,04[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]15[/TD] [TD]Georgia[/TD] [TD="align: right"]67,95[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,30[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,04[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]16[/TD] [TD]Japan[/TD] [TD="align: right"]67,93[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,04[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,30[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]17[/TD] [TD]USA[/TD] [TD="align: right"]66,61[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,46[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,82[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,09[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]18[/TD] [TD]Romania[/TD] [TD="align: right"]64,54[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,04[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD="align: right"]-0,09[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: right"]19[/TD] [TD]Russia[/TD] [TD="align: right"]62,05[/TD] [TD="align: right"]0,46[/TD] [TD="align: right"]1,00[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] </tbody>[/TABLE] Now go do your math. The 4th place is up for grabs. Example: if France win all three games by 15 points or less, we will get 1.31 points (1.03 from Australia, 0.26 from Argentina and 0.02 from Samoa), making a total of 84.34. If England lose againt the All Blacks and win the rest, all by 15 or less, they will get 0.57 points (0 from Fiji, 1.03 from Australia, 0.86 from South Africa and -0.32 from NZ), making a total of 83.66 and thus losing the fourth spot. The 8th spot is also interesting and, imo, is a lot more important than tha fourth one. A 9th place in the rankings makes it sure that you will have 2 tier 1 nations in tour pool, whereas an 8th spot makes it a 25% chance. [/QUOTE]
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