Political Crisis in Canada

[Canadian_Rugger]

A Political Crisis is going on right now in Canada... The Socialist New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party are attempting to overthrow the Conservative Harper government by forming a coalition government which will be supported by the Separatist Bloc Quebecois.... This is unprecedented in Canadian politics and has never happened before

As of now the Conservative party has 143 seats, just 11 shy of holding a majority government, the NDP and Liberals have 113 seats .... not enough to form a government but this is where it gets interesting. They have signed an agreement whereby they will form a government with the supportist Bloc Quebecois, a political party whose agenda it is to separate Quebec from Canada and who also hold 50 seats in parliament. The Bloc is not formally part of the coalition but they have agreed that they will conditionally support the Liberal-NDP coalition for a period of 18 months and allow them to form a government.

In order to do this the opposition will strike down the governments motion on monday which is a confidence vote. If the house loses confidence in the government then the governor-general would normally call an election, but he/she also has the ability to see if someone else can make the house work... The NDP and Liberals have offered this proposal.

This event, while it hasn't been widely reported as so, has sparked outrage across Canada as the balance of power of government is being placed in the hands of a party whose ultimate goal is to breakup the country. It is also an issue because the governor general is an appointed figure and merely a figurehead so essentially a lot of people take the view that this is simply a bloodless coup.



As for my opinion I had a feeling it was only a matter of time before the left united against Harper, he has been in a minority government situation for the past 3 years and has been able to basically run a majority government because the opposition was so scared of election that they wouldn't dare challenge him. He has admittedly bitten off more then he could chew IMHO and this is the consequence.

I also feel though that this is very dangerous for the country... and while the Liberals may gain in the short term I have a feeling this will do longterm damage to the Liberal party of Canada. The Conservatives are on the up in Canada and they have been getting consistently stronger with each election. Also putting the balance of power in the hands of a separatist party is a terrible thing. This has also brought into question whether our system of government needs to be amended.

Thoughts anyone


also here is some background info on the subject

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7760506.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7764071.stm

 

[redunderthebed]

I'm sincerely glad that they have got together to get rid of that bush clone and all round nonce Stephen Harper. The tories where planning to pass legislation to *ban* public servants from striking for the next 3 years that is f**ked and violation of people's democratic rights. :angry:

"say no to the coup" f**K off you tory ******** say no to a bunch of republican clones that dont even have a majority in parliament running the country.

 

[Prestwick]

Canadian sketch artist J.J McCulloch's take on the fiasco:

One of the things my Government & Politics lecturer once told me about politics is that "what you read as theory will most likely be happening before your very eyes!" This is true.

Canada has a similar system to that of the UK: an Anglo-Saxon constitutional monarchy and so as a result, the situations tend to be similar. What you are seeing now however is a demented compromise of the Continental European system of government by collective argument (or, as normal people call it, Coalition) and the Anglo-Saxon system which was never even designed to hold organised political parties!

In this situation, the representative of the Crown must decide whether to back the existing government, dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections or ask the Opposition to form a government.

In this case, it is important to point out (as people do tend to get confused) that this whole process is effectively out of the hands of the electorate.

By voting, you are voting to choose who send to Ottowa to represent your Constituency/Riding. You are not voting for a new PM, you are not voting for a new government. You are voting for a new Parliament.

The prerogative to choose a government is the Crown and the Crown's alone. Thus, Ms Jean (who is frankly woefully inadequate for the job no matter how one eyed you look at it) has one of the toughest decisions of her career to make in the next few weeks.

Convention states (both in Canada and the UK) that she should either dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections or ask the Opposition to form a government if Parliament votes that it has lost confidence in the existing executive. This, like most convention, is open to extreme interpretation. While the letter of the law (or convention) seems clear cut, she has a lot of room for maneuver and will probably use this to suspend Parliament until budget day at least to get the important stuff out of the way before the blood letting begins.

My view? Phyrric victory for both sides. All this means is that the highy unscrupulous Liberal party will damage their image amongst Canadians by being perceived to win power on a technicality away from any standard Democratic methods like, say, voting. The Tories however will be undoubtedly weakened. They may well go back to the nation again but any chance of them increasing their share in Parliament are damaged.

Yet more minority government for Canada I'm afraid but its all awfully fascinating.

 

[DonBilly]

Coalitions are quite common in Europe, is this better or worse? I don't know to be honnest. Countries such as Germany, Nederlands, or France have shown this doesn't go against stability while other countries such as Italy and Israel have shown the opposite. There's not one clear rule, it is actually very dependant on the convention, constitution, your country follows. Just look southward, the USA can be ruled by the President gobvernment even if his party has no majority in none of the chambres of the congress.

Regarding the support of independentist party, Canada is not the first country where this happens. All the leading parties of Spain (either the conservative Partido Popular or the leftist Partido Socialista Obrero Español) have had to negotiate with the Catalan and Basques parties. This didn't prevent this country to be one of the most dynamic countries of the European Union. They have also been quite stable. on the other hand when they received the support from these parties they had to give more autonomy and rights to Catalan and Basques regions (these regions are equivalent to Canadian provinces, Spain is a federal kingdom). I guess it is likely that the Bloc in case the coalition manages to get the power reins is likely to similarly ask more rights, money, etc. for Quebec province. I wonder though if the electorate of the Bloc will really appreciate this supports although when you look the way the Quebeckers behave, i.e. le Bloc at the parliament and the Liberals at Québec city, they look like being mainly motivated by defending the interests of a Québec part of Canada without taking care of the rest of the country. In the short term this may pay off.

I wondered too what triggered this coalition. Why it didn't happen sooner? Having read some of the Canadian press it looks like Harper has some responsibility. He behaved like he had a strong majority supporting him at the parliament. This was not very clever.

 

[Prestwick]

This is usually the case when there is a minority government in the UK or Canada. Because of the nature of the system, it is sometimes better to brave it out as a minority government and try and strong arm the bills you wish to pass through Parliament. Harper has managed this so far by negotiating on a case by case basis with the right honorable and gullible Charles de Gaulle appreciation socie- I mean the Bloc.

In a similar situation, James Callaghan's Labour minority government survived negotiating with the then Liberal party on a bill by bill basis.

The problem is that with the Anglo-Saxon system, the stakes are even higher. If you lose a vote, you automatically trigger a vote of no confidence. This isn't like France or the United States where the President gets to fight another day, you lose a vote on a bill and most likely you'll be heading to the polls within a month.

The Alliance's decision to combine their powers was sparked by proposals by Harper's government to abolish state funding for political parties. This would have seriously harmed the Liberals, NDP and Bloc so on that basis, I'm not surprised This though is a Pyrrhic victory. If they do take the reigns, this may cost them the support and goodwill of sympathetic French Canadians on both the left and right who feel that this is an undemocratic way of taking power. These people could well be persuaded to vote Tory or Liberal in the coming elections.

As a final parting shot, if by "dynamic" you mean stealing everyone elses fish, polluting the Mediterranean and being utterly hypocritical over the issue of Gibraltar then yes, Spain is pretty damn dynamic!

 

[Woldog]

Aye? Whats all this aboot?

 

[DonBilly]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Dec 4 2008, 12:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

As a final parting shot, if by "dynamic" you mean stealing everyone elses fish, polluting the Mediterranean and being utterly hypocritical over the issue of Gibraltar then yes, Spain is pretty damn dynamic! [/b]

Well this can be a view but I would say it's rather a collateral damage.

Just look where Spain was 20, 10, 5 years ago and you see how fast they have developed and evolved, financially, politically, culturally... That's the dynamism I had in mind.

By the way I don't understand what is the issue you're referring about Gibraltar. B) Spain accepts that a foreign country occupies and colonises a bit of their land. When global warming make Cornwall more friendly they should colonise a bit of it.

 

[Fa'atau82]

** politics la la la la la la la politics**

I am planning to visit nate's kingdom, the commonwealth of awesometonia and radvalia du la grand nichons, possibly to stay there indefinitely. Who's coming with me?!

 

[Prestwick]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Dec 4 2008, 01:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

By the way I don't understand what is the issue you're referring about Gibraltar. B) Spain accepts that a foreign country occupies and colonises a bit of their land. When global warming make Cornwall more friendly they should colonise a bit of it.[/b]

*cough*Ceuta*hack*Melilla*cough*

Gibraltar was handed over as part of 1713 Treaty of Utrecht, and as the vast majority of Gibraltarians wish to remain under the Union Flag, much like the Falkland Islands I feel that this is a moot point

 

[Canadian_Rugger]

You are absolutely right I believe Prestwick,in your analogy of the current political situation. We had a major discussion about this today in my third year federalism and constitutions class. As it stands the majority of Canadians do not understand the political system of our country. They do not understand that you vote for a constituent and not the Prime Minister or party. If you asked most Canadians who they were voting for they would probably tell you the leader of the party they voted for and not their MP.

The problem with this is and this is how the Conservatives are spinning it is that the Liberals and NDP have hijacked democracy. The Liberals have lost a lot of headway to the NDP recently and part of the reasons the Cons were able to gain so much in the previous election wasn't due to them garnering much more support it was because the Liberals split the vote with the NDP in many of their ridings. I have a feeling that this situation while it may give the Liberal party a tactical victory in the short term in the long term it is going to damage them. There are going to be a lot of red tories who don't like the idea of siding with the NDP and the Bloc and this is going to force them to move over to the otherside.

In any case if this government goes down Harper's political career is over. I feel that he bit of a little more then he could chew... he knows the liberal party is in a huge amount of debt and he tried to cut their heads off by cutting out public funding with which the Conservatives only draw 37% of their income from. As Harper is his own tactician I am sure the knives are already being brought out in the back rooms.

As for the Liberals they are going to further weaken their power base as more people will now vote NDP as the distinction between the two parties is skewed and more people will now vote conservative as many red tories will be very upset by all this. I think the Liberals should of backed off, they got their public funding back they got what they wanted they should of stayed away and rebuilt for next election.

The ultimate winner in this situation though is Mr. Layton and boy oh boy do I hate that loud mouthed idiot. He has brought his party into previously uncharted territory though and for that he should be commended by his supporters.

 

[St Helens RLFC]

This is a fantastic read.

 

[DonBilly]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Dec 4 2008, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Dec 4 2008, 01:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

By the way I don't understand what is the issue you're referring about Gibraltar. B) Spain accepts that a foreign country occupies and colonises a bit of their land. When global warming make Cornwall more friendly they should colonise a bit of it.[/b]

*cough*Ceuta*hack*Melilla*cough*

Gibraltar was handed over as part of 1713 Treaty of Utrecht, and as the vast majority of Gibraltarians wish to remain under the Union Flag, much like the Falkland Islands I feel that this is a moot point
[/b][/quote]


Well as far as I know kingdom of Morocco is not part of UK.

Gilbratarians being the foreign colonisers I don't see what's the point. It's a bit like asking the Pieds Noirs what they think of Algeria.

 

[Canadian_Rugger]

The Bloc are the true winners in this whole thing.... they are going to get a big payoff which will look good in the eyes of their constituents and the Liberal and Conservative parties are going to alienate their voters in Quebec so the Bloc are going to do quite well for themselves. The best part is they will hold the strings of government and be able to pull whenever they see fit.

Don't count the conservatives out though they are the wealthiest party in Canada by a long shot and they are highly disciplined and united. The thing about Conservatism in this country is that while they may not be a majority they make up for it by being hardcore supporters. They are also the only true national party with MPs in every province. The Liberals are only supported in the major cities and the NDP are thrown around where there is a strong union presence.

 

[MunsterMan]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Dec 4 2008, 03:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Gilbratarians being the foreign colonisers I don't see what's the point.[/b]

That's the bit I don't understand. They shouldn't be there in the first place, why should it be up to them which country the land they stole belongs to? It should be up to the people who rightfully own it.

 

[Prestwick]

The Tories in Canada are incredibly disciplined and I think this whole crisis will probably galvanise their hand. Its going to set the West against the Francophone East which is probably why Harper's televised address so heavily spoke against working in government with "separatists". The battle lines have been drawn.

1. The land wasn't stolen. The exchange of ports and land has been going on between European nations since time immemorial. Britain wasn't the first and it definitely won't be the last.
2. Ceuta and Melilla however were stolen. Typical double standards.
3. Morroco isn't a part of Spain either so that still doesn't excuse Ceuta or Melilla.
4. We'd love to consult the "rightful owners" but they're currently six feet under because, y'know, they died. About 300 years ago after they left Gibraltar on their own accord.
5. Comparing Gibraltarians with the Pied Noir?! Oh come off it, absolutely crazy comparison.

 

[Canadian_Rugger]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Dec 5 2008, 06:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

The Tories in Canada are incredibly disciplined and I think this whole crisis will probably galvanise their hand. Its going to set the West against the Francophone East which is probably why Harper's televised address so heavily spoke against working in government with "separatists". The battle lines have been drawn.

1. The land wasn't stolen. The exchange of ports and land has been going on between European nations since time immemorial. Britain wasn't the first and it definitely won't be the last.
2. Ceuta and Melilla however were stolen. Typical double standards.
3. Morroco isn't a part of Spain either so that still doesn't excuse Ceuta or Melilla.
4. We'd love to consult the "rightful owners" but they're currently six feet under because, y'know, they died. About 300 years ago after they left Gibraltar on their own accord.
5. Comparing Gibraltarians with the Pied Noir?! Oh come off it, absolutely crazy comparison.[/b]

Well its official parliament has been prorogued by the governor general. The Parliament will resume work on the 27 Jan 09. The GG came to the conclusion that this was the best thing for the country at the present time. This may provide some time for the parties to cool down.

What I believe is going to happen though is the Tories are going to come to the table with a strong budget and stimulus package and the house is going to reject it.... and we will goto the election. I doubt Mr. Harper will be so bold now that he knows the other parties will not tolerate him bullying them any longer... these next few months are going to be very interesting.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/harper-jean.html

I hope this will actually cut all the Partisan crap that has been going on the past little while and allow the parties to sit down and come to a compromise

 

[DonBilly]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Dec 4 2008, 06:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

The Tories in Canada are incredibly disciplined and I think this whole crisis will probably galvanise their hand. Its going to set the West against the Francophone East which is probably why Harper's televised address so heavily spoke against working in government with "separatists". The battle lines have been drawn.

1. The land wasn't stolen. The exchange of ports and land has been going on between European nations since time immemorial. Britain wasn't the first and it definitely won't be the last.
2. Ceuta and Melilla however were stolen. Typical double standards.
3. Morroco isn't a part of Spain either so that still doesn't excuse Ceuta or Melilla.
4. We'd love to consult the "rightful owners" but they're currently six feet under because, y'know, they died. About 300 years ago after they left Gibraltar on their own accord.
5. Comparing Gibraltarians with the Pied Noir?! Oh come off it, absolutely crazy comparison.[/b]

You really think that the European countries will follow fighting each other and sign this kind of treaty? Come on, 21st century has started more than seven years ago now...

Ceuta and Melilla should be returned to Morroco no problem with that. These pieces of land are clearly Morrocan. My point was that we were discussing of the land UK has been colonising in Spain, not of what Spain occupies in Morroco which is not part of the UK.

Gibraltarians are not citizens of the country's land they're occupying so I don't see why they should be consulted. When Algeria was returned to Algerian people there was no point in asking Pieds Noirs opinion.

 

[DonBilly]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Canadian_Rugger @ Dec 4 2008, 06:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Dec 5 2008, 06:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Tories in Canada are incredibly disciplined and I think this whole crisis will probably galvanise their hand. Its going to set the West against the Francophone East which is probably why Harper's televised address so heavily spoke against working in government with "separatists". The battle lines have been drawn.

1. The land wasn't stolen. The exchange of ports and land has been going on between European nations since time immemorial. Britain wasn't the first and it definitely won't be the last.
2. Ceuta and Melilla however were stolen. Typical double standards.
3. Morroco isn't a part of Spain either so that still doesn't excuse Ceuta or Melilla.
4. We'd love to consult the "rightful owners" but they're currently six feet under because, y'know, they died. About 300 years ago after they left Gibraltar on their own accord.
5. Comparing Gibraltarians with the Pied Noir?! Oh come off it, absolutely crazy comparison.[/b]

Well its official parliament has been prorogued by the governor general. The Parliament will resume work on the 27 Jan 09. The GG came to the conclusion that this was the best thing for the country at the present time. This may provide some time for the parties to cool down.

What I believe is going to happen though is the Tories are going to come to the table with a strong budget and stimulus package and the house is going to reject it.... and we will goto the election. I doubt Mr. Harper will be so bold now that he knows the other parties will not tolerate him bullying them any longer... these next few months are going to be very interesting.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/harper-jean.html

I hope this will actually cut all the Partisan crap that has been going on the past little while and allow the parties to sit down and come to a compromise
[/b][/quote]

I've seen a poll suggesting that Canadian don't want new election and would prefer a coalition running the country. is there any chance that the Liberal and the Conservatives find an agreement? In Germany the Conservatives and the Socialist managed to find such an agreement, they were in the same situation as Canada.

 

[Prestwick]

The situation is very confusing at the moment. There are a few conflicting polls which either back elections or back the coalition. Some say that if there were fresh elections, Harper would be re-elected, others say that the coalition would be elected to government.

The next 45 odd days will be crucial but also very unpredictable. Dion and Layton need to prepare for Budget day and how to respond to whatever it is that Harper has planned. Harper however has hamstrung himself because right now, he has frozen any ability to legislate or create any new emergency fiscal plan as this must be put before Parliament. If he does have to go back to Parliament before the suspension ends then that will be incredibly humiliating for him.

Extraordinarily high stakes here.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Dec 5 2008, 08:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

You really think that the European countries will follow fighting each other and sign this kind of treaty? Come on, 21st century has started more than seven years ago now...

Ceuta and Melilla should be returned to Morroco no problem with that. These pieces of land are clearly Morrocan. My point was that we were discussing of the land UK has been colonising in Spain, not of what Spain occupies in Morroco which is not part of the UK.

Gibraltarians are not citizens of the country's land they're occupying so I don't see why they should be consulted. When Algeria was returned to Algerian people there was no point in asking Pieds Noirs opinion.[/b]

The 21st century may well be into almost its eighth full year but remember that there has been war and bitter discourse in the Balkans and Georgia followed by treaties and declarations unilaterally transferring land from one party to another.

The first thing that has always irked me about the European Union is the idea that it can lecture people on the ideas of peaceful co-existence and it is this holier than thou attitude (as well as its general reluctance to actually get its hands dirty) that condemned hundreds of thousands to their deaths in the Balkans during the 1990s.

Again, comparing a people like the Pied Noir who were generally a not very nice people clinging onto a dream that was rapidly vanishing and backing to the hilt a French regime which was as savage as it was brutal and which completely backfired in the end, to compare them with around 30,000 people who live peacefully with others on the penninsula, who democractically elect their own government and who are quite happy to share the bit of rock that they're on is frankly crazy.

You can't compare the Pied Noir with the Gibraltarians. Its a silly comparison and it gives me a migraine just trying to work out how they are similar... unless the British Army has carried out any brutal reprisals or burnt any villages on the Gibraltarian penninsular in the last fifty years? In any case, please stop using it.

My point at the end of the day is that this is set in stone. The only way you are going to turf these peace loving and friendly 30,000 people off of the rock is by invasion. And thats the bottom line.

 

[Canadian_Rugger]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Dec 5 2008, 08:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

The first thing that has always irked me about the European Union is the idea that it can lecture people on the ideas of peaceful co-existence and it is this holier than thou attitude (as well as its general reluctance to actually get its hands dirty) that condemned hundreds of thousands to their deaths in the Balkans during the 1990s.[/b]

I can definitely attest to this atleast from a military perspective. Its a general consensus in the Canadian, American, and Brit Armed forces that troops from the continental european countries are of poor quality and of little use in an actual combat situation. I have many friends who have recently come back from Afghanistan and all they have to say about the European NATO forces excluding the Danes, Dutch, Romanians, and Brits is that they are lazy and useless and may as well not even be there.

Part of the problem in Afghanistan is that we don't have enough ground troops to actually fight the war and hold the ground. NATO has 50,000 soldiers in the country but most of those countries, germany, spain, italy, etc.. have caveats whereby there troops are not allowed to engage in any combat action whatsoever and they must remain in the North.

It is inhibiting the coalitions ability to respond effectively to the Taliban insurgency and actually get the troops where they are needed. Germany especially from what I have been told are the most useless of the lot... their soldiers are fat, they are reluctant to work and supposedly some of them are drunk half the time, as they are the only ones allowed to drink beer on OPS, they are essentially the laughing stock of NATO and its quite sad that a country with such a proud military tradition known for its strong fighting men could have fallen so far.

The Brits, Americans, Canadians, Dutch have been able numerous times to defeat the Taliban and inflict substantial casualties on them but the problem is their is nobody to hold the ground after we have removed the threat, and as soon as we leave the Taliban return. Its quite disheartening really when essentially half of NATO's fighting stock in Afghanistan is useless and may as well not even be there.

Its ok though I really didn't expect anything less as the Euro governments, at least when it comes to dealing with International issues, are known for saying one thing and then doing the complete opposite.