Predictions

[TheSaffycen]

So after the 4th round of the new European Rugby Champions Cup we have seen every team play each other in their respective groups. So what are peoples predictions ? Pool winners from 1-5 ? the quater finalist ? who will get the home quaters ? Even the winner ?

For me pool 1 is now Clermont Auvergne's to lose, Saracens at home should be easy enough and then they go down to Sale who probably wont have had a win in the comp by then.

Pool 2 is a real tricky one with the Quins and Leinster on 14 with Wasps in 3rd with 13 points ! An incredibly tight pool and I feel the second placed team will also go through. I have to go with Leinster though, they should pick up 5 points at home to Castres (who have been shockingly poor) and if they need a result at Wasps I would also back them to win.

Pool 3 is easily Toulon's and faliure to not get a home QF should be seen as embarrassing for Laporte and co. Scarlets should not pose any real threat for Toulon now that their scrum doesn't have too face Ayerza again, if Giteau can get back as well than it should be 5 points.

Pool 4 again goes to the French with Toulouse out in front by 6 points. Bath could potentially be a tricky fixture at home but I would expect them to win that as well. Toulouse could end up with 26 points (more likely 24) and should secure the home QF.

Pool 5 goes to the Saints for me. Racing must be kicking themselves for letting the Ospreys draw down in Swansea, whereas Saints have just picked up 10 points from the Treviso games and I can see them winning both their remaining games. Racing should get 5 points against Treviso this time but who knows with them.

So QF in order
1-Toulouse
2-Clermont
3-Clermont
4-Toulon
5-Leinster
6-Racing
7-Quins
8-Saracens/Munster

For me there is no clearly best team. No one looks like the 2011-2012 Leinster or the 2012-2013 Toulon. I would say that Clermont looks like the best team so far but they got beaten by Saracens who haven't looked anything like last year, Toulon got beaten by Tigers this year, Saints didn't even get the LBP against Racing. The comp is really open this year but I would put Clermont as the winners at this stage.

 

[FrenchFan]

Hard to see a winner yet. I still think Toulon are favourites.
They look very solid. They dropped one pool game last year in similar circumstances in Wales. And they cranked it up in a big way after January. I can't see many going to Mayol and beating them. Also they'll have Giteau back by then and he makes a big difference. But no one's unbeatable. We beat them in Toulouse in Top 14 last October, so they are vulnerable. Still, we had to play our best rugby of the season and blitzed them in the first half and managed our lead well afterwards

The only thing that can affect the French teams will be their performance in Top14. It's going to be such a battle from January onwards. A lot of energy will go into it, how much will they have left in the tank, hard to say. Injuries to key players will come into it as well.

Toulouse, I can see us getting a home QF but I don't see us going past that stage. If we're not back in top 6 in the league, Europe will become much less of a priority. I hope I'm wrong. But we can no longer chase the double. These days are gone. It'll be one or the other.

I would expect Sarries to make the last 4. They're a top side and can win it. I don't know enough about other Aviva teams to judge. Won't be an easy ride for anyone!

Edit: Another factor that could work agst Toulon this season is the toll they're paying to les Bleus with 8 players. That's a lot even with their depth. More games in an already congested season. What state will their players end up in after the 6N? Not to mention the impact of the toxic environment that surrounds the national team messing up players' head (Doussain and Picamoles for us last season)... Toulon didn't have to deal with that before. That argument works in reverse for Toulouse, the less exposure we have to the national side (only 4 so far), the better for the club's chances in both competitions.

Try of the weekend for me was Naikataci beating 5 Munster defenders.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

1. Toulouse
2. Clermont
3. Saints
4. Toulon
5. Winner of Quins v Wasps
6. Racing Metro
7. Leinster
8. Munster

All four home QFs to win if it's like that, maybe Munster could beat Toulouse but unlikely. Final to be between two of Clermont, Toulon and Saints. It's anyone's then if I were to put abet on now I'd stick it on Saints, Toulon may struggle to motivate themselves for three in a row, it's natural and you see it in a lot of great sides in many sports and Clermont aren't used to winning all that often whereas Saints are off the back of an AP win and look hungry for more.

 

[Maverick1987]

1. Toulouse
2. Clermont
3. Saints
4. Toulon
5. Winner of Quins v Wasps
6. Racing Metro
7. Leinster
8. Munster

All four home QFs to win if it's like that, maybe Munster could beat Toulouse but unlikely. Final to be between two of Clermont, Toulon and Saints. It's anyone's then if I were to put abet on now I'd stick it on Saints, Toulon may struggle to motivate themselves for three in a row, it's natural and you see it in a lot of great sides in many sports and Clermont aren't used to winning all that often whereas Saints are off the back of an AP win and look hungry for more.

Yep agree with all of this . Scary that Toulon still look a good side and they are playing poorly for their standards lets hope they don't turn it on

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

1 Toulouse
2 Saints
3 Clermont
4 Toulon

5 Leinster
6 Harlequins
7 Racing
8 Saracens

My slim hope is that Racing manage 5 log points off of Treviso at home (we *should* but I won't put money on it) and sneak a win over Saints on the road to make for a home QF (and all French QFs?). We are a better side than the one that played the Ospreys these last two weeks and in a secure enough position in the Top14 to give the ECC a go..

 

[munstermuffin]

So many permutations but can I ask 1 question. All the English and French clubs used to give out about Italian teams in pool meaning 1 pool is easier but doesn't that problem still exist like looking at Saints pool it's still the same issue?

But certainly it's anyones -
Ulster may concentrate on Pro 12 opening door for Leicester.
Leinster could get 2 Bonus Point wins or they could go the other way. It's 1 beauty of MOC.
We could win in London but equally Clermont could be rattled by Sarries.

So many permutations that it's nearly impossible to predict

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

So many permutations but can I ask 1 question. All the English and French clubs used to give out about Italian teams in pool meaning 1 pool is easier but doesn't that problem still exist like looking at Saints pool it's still the same issue?

But certainly it's anyones -
Ulster may concentrate on Pro 12 opening door for Leicester.
Leinster could get 2 Bonus Point wins or they could go the other way. It's 1 beauty of MOC.
We could win in London but equally Clermont could be rattled by Sarries.

So many permutations that it's nearly impossible to predict

Absolutely, it's weird! Looking at the teams drawn out of the 4th tier you have Treviso who all are milking- I mean RM92 got 4 points away to Treviso and it felt like the end of the world that they didn't get the BP while you have Toulouse also from tier 4 and they are looking like topping the overall log nevemind being competitive for the bottom seed in their pool.

 

[Big Ewis]

1 Toulouse
2 Saints
3 Clermont
4 Toulon

5 Leinster
6 Harlequins
7 Racing
8 Saracens

My slim hope is that Racing manage 5 log points off of Treviso at home (we *should* but I won't put money on it) and sneak a win over Saints on the road to make for a home QF (and all French QFs?). We are a better side than the one that played the Ospreys these last two weeks and in a secure enough position in the Top14 to give the ECC a go..

+1 for being a SH- based poster but still showing genuine interest in something else than your own league, and talking like a true Racing fan

About seeding and all dat...I'll keep from giving predictions or making a ton of calculations. I just don't know who'll end up being 1st, 8th, and anything in between...and lots of that actually determines who advances and who doesn't. If somehow Toulon end up not playing at home, they could very well be eliminated, all it takes is one 80min block and it's job over, go home and focus on Top 14.

I'll say this much:
- Pool 1: Clermont probably have it in the bag (Sale away and Sarries at home...very doable)
- Pool 2: least interesting for me being French, I just don't know. Wasps are pretty damn good and they're third...Leinster host Castres and then @Wasps, Quinns host Wasps and then at Castres. Easier endeavor for Quinns and they're leading the pool right now.
- Pool 3: Toulon. Why ? Oh well parce que Toulon.
- Pool 4: Montpellier. Haha, just kidding, right @Gaston la gaff (hahaha, I'm such a mischievous kidder, haha...) - the ST host Bath then travel to MP...yep, that's it, and they're undefeated in 6. Ima go with Toulouse to win and not to lose (ooh ooh, there I go again !!)..
- Pool 5: Saints. The only thing I'm planning on that could change that figure is the Racingmen get that much closer to their potential in the meantime, play good confidence-instilling games domestically and solidify that starting xv with a Machenaud and Sexton well in place and an attack that finally clicks on the regular rather than in jerky spurts. The pack knows what to do, but it's the pretty boys outside that can make a difference, and they do need stability just generally (defensively, emotionally, at the end of games, psychologically...).

And while I'm at it fellas, how rich is this Champions Cup, ay ? FIVE pools, I don't even have the one.

 

[Irishkid]

1 Toulouse
2 Saints
3 Toulon
4 Clermont
5 Leinster
6 Wasps
7 Racing
8 Bath

 

[duncanb]

Still hard to guess but for what it is worth here is my QF's

Toulouse(1) v Sarries (8)
Saints (2) v Quins (7)
Toulon (3) v RM92 (6)
Clermont(4) v Leinster(5)

But would be surprised if more than 1 is right at this stage.

 

[Every Time Ref]

1 Toulouse
2 Saints
3 Toulon
4 Clermont
5 Leinster
6 Wasps
7 Racing
8 Bath

I appreciate the vote of confidence! You do know we almost certainly need to beat Toulouse away for that to happen, don't you?! Not that I'm saying it's entirely unrealistic, but it certainly wouldn't be where I'd place my money at this stage ...

 

[Every Time Ref]

Almost impossible, so much so that it's laughably pointless essentially trying to predict the outcomes of 20 separate fixtures, but what else am I going to do on a Tuesday morning?! My match-by-match prediction led me to the following unassailable conclusion:

Toulouse 25
Northampton 24
Clermont 23
Toulon 22
Harlequins 21

Racing Metro 20
Glasgow 19
Sarries 17
Leinster / Wasps 17 - second place too tight to call. Might well come down to whether Wasps can win at home by more than the 5 points they lost by away ...
Leicester 16

So, Sarries Vs Leinster/Wasps may well come down to points difference in their respective groups? Wasps' is significantly better than any at present so I'll back them:


Toulouse Vs Wasps
Northampton Vs Glasgow
Clermont Vs Racing Metro
Toulon Vs Harlequins

 

[Chistera]

1. Toulon
2. Clermont (they're the best side right now but won't win it if they face Toulon in the final)
3. Saints
4. Leinster
5. Toulouse
6. Saracens
7. Racing Metro (my dark horse, possibly a top 3 team individually speaking, with a monster backline: Machenaud-Sexton-Thomas-Dumoulin-Roberts-Imhoff-Dulin, Goosen and Laulala off the bench)
8. Bath

 

[Big Ewis]

I agree with lots of what you're saying Chistera, especially about Racing. They had Sexton and everybody when they played Prem champ Saints and beat them and it wasn't really that close honestly. As everybody knows though they need some ****ing !!!!! stability. That lineup has been like a woman on PMS.

But I think this year Clermont can beat Toulon. The final two years ago was a bit 'special', peculiar. Clermont score two tries in a row and everybody in the universe knows they've got it, they'd basically lifted the trophy and gone down in the history books and everybody looked ahead for the next year. And then a few inattention errors and Toulon come right back and win. Clermont might slip again big time, but I've a feeling if they don't slip before and get to the final, they're beating whoever they'll play there. Plus, Castres won't be playing past the pools so they can breathe a little bit

 

[Chistera]

I agree with lots of what you're saying Chistera, especially about Racing. They had Sexton and everybody when they played Prem champ Saints and beat them and it wasn't really that close honestly. As everybody knows though they need some ****ing !!!!! stability. That lineup has been like a woman on PMS.

I agree that Racing only need things to start clicking collectively on a regular basis to perform at the top top level, on the European stage as well as Top 14. 2014-2015 might be their be their best chance though, they'll lose Sexton next year and Talès will be an important downgrade compared to him (even though Goosen is playing great rugby right now, I assume Talès comes in a starter, especially with his past coaches at Racing).
edit: nevermind, they've got Carter coming in and, assuming Labit and Travers do a decent job, they'll scare the hell out of everybody's next year, galactic-Toulon-style. Talès probably isn't so about happy about the news though...

In another story, remembered about this piece from the beginning of the season by the Guardian's rugby editor, Robert Kitson, which explained why English clubs benefited from ERC's new format and went on: "For better or worse it is even possible to imagine a posse of four English clubs – Saints, Sarries, Bath and Wasps – and perhaps just one French side in the last eight" .
Quite off the mark it seems .