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Okay, this is a pretty long-winded, and probably over-thought thread but please, give it a chance. And remember, it’s only a hypothetical situation.
Right, rugby will obviously never reach the global popularity that soccer has because soccer has the edge due to its headstart at world domination and the simplicity of the game. But, to be fair to the IRB they’re not doing a terrible job at promoting the game in smaller nations what with the expansion of the PNC and the creation of the Emirates Cup of Nations. But I want to give you a scenario here. If rugby’s popularity did rocket around the globe, would it kill off some of the traditional powers?
Okay, consider this:
- The Italian franchises in the PRO 12 continue to get better and better over, say, twenty years. The popularity of rugby in Italy (in the North at least) improves due to the improvement of the national team, which would surely happen if Treviso and Zebre were more competitive. Think about it, is it really unreasonable to think Treviso will be winning PRO 12 ***les in the next twenty years?
- Okay. So now Treviso are winning league ***les and Zebre are, say, Scarlets standard. Rugby is more popular in Italy so they need more franchises. Maybe just one more. Maybe in Rome. Either way, eventually, the Italians get more and more into their rugby until Treviso and Zebre are back home playing in a solely Italian tournament coz the country is in need of even more franchises. The country would be big enough to sustain such a tournament if the interest was there.
- This leads to a Top 14-like tournament which could very likely bring the Azzurri up the standard of France and before you know it, Italy are winning Grand Slams.
- All the while, growth of the game all around Europe due to tournaments in the East (such as Croket66’s idea http://www.therugbyforum.com/forum/...ranchise-system-a-solution-for-Eastern-Europe) and Spain & Portugal could very likely lead to the national teams of Romania, Russia, Georgia, Spain and Portugal â€" at the least â€" becoming as good as Italy are in the present day (remember we’re a good 30, 40 years into the future here).
- The 6 Nations would have to succumb to the pressure eventually and allow a promotion-relegation system OR (shock horror) the legendary tournament becomes defunct and a sort of European Championships starts up. Remember, if Romania, Georgia, etc are the new Italys then the likes of Germany, Ukraine and Belgium could be the new ‘best of the rest in Europe’ sides so a properly continent wide tournament would be possible.
Next thing you know, European places (Heineken or Amlin) aren’t guaranteed for EVERY team in the PRO 12, Top 14 and Premiership. There’d have to be qualifiers because the Iberian, Italian and Eastern European league teams need to have equal places. That would give the French and English what they want in the present day because it would put more pressure on Celtic teams to perform in the PRO 12 for Heineken Cup spots.
Scotland could move backwards rapidly because there’s way more teams to show them up in Europe and the fact that they only have two professional franchises would damage them further. Wales and Ireland could struggle too due to their relatively small populations. Look at Scotland, Ireland and Wales in soccer, they have fairly small populations - approx 3m, 4m and 5m respectively â€" so they can’t compete with the big nations with bigger populations like France, Spain, Italy, Portugal. All of which are countries that, in this scenario are competitive rugby nations. It’s really not that unrealistic, is it? Hey, the Netherlands are roughly the same size as the three Celtic nations (in area) but the population is nearer the 16million mark and they are giants of soccer. Obviously, popularity of the sport and the time invested into developing it at a young age plays a part, but it’s clear that if a country has enough interest in a sport, coupled with a big population, it will excel. If rugby shared the popularity it has with soccer in Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc like it does in France we would be left with loads of Frances. How could little old Wales, Scotland and Ireland combat all of them. When it’s only France we can deal with it but if there was that many others……
And here’s the other scary part. How about outside Europe? In this 40 year period, Japan have surely become a force of massive proportions. World Cup contenders even. Maybe other Asian nations have gained an interest. What if rugby became hugely popular in China? Japan would have joined the Rugby Championship by this point. The USA and Canada, too. Correct me if I’m wrong but rugby’s experiencing quite a lot of growth there so, 40-50 years time and they could be brilliant, no? I think we can all agree that if the US weren’t so preoccupied with their own national sports (Basketball, Baseball, American Football, Ice Hockey) they would be world beaters at soccer and rugby.
All this leaves everyone’s favourite second team(s) falling behind. Fiji. Tonga. Samoa. Nations that are to rugby what Brazil is to soccer (in popularity terms) and if it weren’t for their tiny populations and the awkwardness of being made up of loads of little islands they would surely be three of the best teams there is. They can hold on to the position of plucky underdogs that have the respect of the big boys nowadays because of the small pool of competitive nations but if there were even more competitors they could fall way behind in the rankings, even losing there ***les of kings of sevens rugby. It is highly unlikely they would ever find the resources to compete if rugby took on such a global popularity and they would probably end up merging to form a Pacific Islands team, like the West Indies in cricket.
Other areas of growth could be south and east Africa (Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Namibia), Uruguay, Chile and Brazil. Maybe even the Middle East if some Sheikh started throwing money at the sport.
I’m not trying to say this is definitely what’s going to happen, I’m just saying that the IRB’s ultimate goal for the growth of the game is to have as many nations competing at as high a level as possible. If/when they succeed it could mean a huge shift in the hierarchy of the sport.
Thanks for reading (if you got this far).
Right, rugby will obviously never reach the global popularity that soccer has because soccer has the edge due to its headstart at world domination and the simplicity of the game. But, to be fair to the IRB they’re not doing a terrible job at promoting the game in smaller nations what with the expansion of the PNC and the creation of the Emirates Cup of Nations. But I want to give you a scenario here. If rugby’s popularity did rocket around the globe, would it kill off some of the traditional powers?
Okay, consider this:
- The Italian franchises in the PRO 12 continue to get better and better over, say, twenty years. The popularity of rugby in Italy (in the North at least) improves due to the improvement of the national team, which would surely happen if Treviso and Zebre were more competitive. Think about it, is it really unreasonable to think Treviso will be winning PRO 12 ***les in the next twenty years?
- Okay. So now Treviso are winning league ***les and Zebre are, say, Scarlets standard. Rugby is more popular in Italy so they need more franchises. Maybe just one more. Maybe in Rome. Either way, eventually, the Italians get more and more into their rugby until Treviso and Zebre are back home playing in a solely Italian tournament coz the country is in need of even more franchises. The country would be big enough to sustain such a tournament if the interest was there.
- This leads to a Top 14-like tournament which could very likely bring the Azzurri up the standard of France and before you know it, Italy are winning Grand Slams.
- All the while, growth of the game all around Europe due to tournaments in the East (such as Croket66’s idea http://www.therugbyforum.com/forum/...ranchise-system-a-solution-for-Eastern-Europe) and Spain & Portugal could very likely lead to the national teams of Romania, Russia, Georgia, Spain and Portugal â€" at the least â€" becoming as good as Italy are in the present day (remember we’re a good 30, 40 years into the future here).
- The 6 Nations would have to succumb to the pressure eventually and allow a promotion-relegation system OR (shock horror) the legendary tournament becomes defunct and a sort of European Championships starts up. Remember, if Romania, Georgia, etc are the new Italys then the likes of Germany, Ukraine and Belgium could be the new ‘best of the rest in Europe’ sides so a properly continent wide tournament would be possible.
Next thing you know, European places (Heineken or Amlin) aren’t guaranteed for EVERY team in the PRO 12, Top 14 and Premiership. There’d have to be qualifiers because the Iberian, Italian and Eastern European league teams need to have equal places. That would give the French and English what they want in the present day because it would put more pressure on Celtic teams to perform in the PRO 12 for Heineken Cup spots.
Scotland could move backwards rapidly because there’s way more teams to show them up in Europe and the fact that they only have two professional franchises would damage them further. Wales and Ireland could struggle too due to their relatively small populations. Look at Scotland, Ireland and Wales in soccer, they have fairly small populations - approx 3m, 4m and 5m respectively â€" so they can’t compete with the big nations with bigger populations like France, Spain, Italy, Portugal. All of which are countries that, in this scenario are competitive rugby nations. It’s really not that unrealistic, is it? Hey, the Netherlands are roughly the same size as the three Celtic nations (in area) but the population is nearer the 16million mark and they are giants of soccer. Obviously, popularity of the sport and the time invested into developing it at a young age plays a part, but it’s clear that if a country has enough interest in a sport, coupled with a big population, it will excel. If rugby shared the popularity it has with soccer in Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc like it does in France we would be left with loads of Frances. How could little old Wales, Scotland and Ireland combat all of them. When it’s only France we can deal with it but if there was that many others……
And here’s the other scary part. How about outside Europe? In this 40 year period, Japan have surely become a force of massive proportions. World Cup contenders even. Maybe other Asian nations have gained an interest. What if rugby became hugely popular in China? Japan would have joined the Rugby Championship by this point. The USA and Canada, too. Correct me if I’m wrong but rugby’s experiencing quite a lot of growth there so, 40-50 years time and they could be brilliant, no? I think we can all agree that if the US weren’t so preoccupied with their own national sports (Basketball, Baseball, American Football, Ice Hockey) they would be world beaters at soccer and rugby.
All this leaves everyone’s favourite second team(s) falling behind. Fiji. Tonga. Samoa. Nations that are to rugby what Brazil is to soccer (in popularity terms) and if it weren’t for their tiny populations and the awkwardness of being made up of loads of little islands they would surely be three of the best teams there is. They can hold on to the position of plucky underdogs that have the respect of the big boys nowadays because of the small pool of competitive nations but if there were even more competitors they could fall way behind in the rankings, even losing there ***les of kings of sevens rugby. It is highly unlikely they would ever find the resources to compete if rugby took on such a global popularity and they would probably end up merging to form a Pacific Islands team, like the West Indies in cricket.
Other areas of growth could be south and east Africa (Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Namibia), Uruguay, Chile and Brazil. Maybe even the Middle East if some Sheikh started throwing money at the sport.
I’m not trying to say this is definitely what’s going to happen, I’m just saying that the IRB’s ultimate goal for the growth of the game is to have as many nations competing at as high a level as possible. If/when they succeed it could mean a huge shift in the hierarchy of the sport.
Thanks for reading (if you got this far).
), but more complex. You do not take into account the climate. Play Romania and Georgia in February, a big risk. In Russia is simply not realistic. This works only if the game move in May \ June, but it will not go 6 Nations, so far they are conservative.
