Quarter Final Scenarios

[An Tarbh]

With 1 round of matches left in the pool stages things have become significantly clearer but still many possible outcomes remain.

Pool 1.

Munster have a 2 point lead over Northampton heading into their pool decider at Thomond Park on Friday. A win for Munster will guarantee them a home quarter final while leaving Northampton needing a string of results over the weekend to go in their favour, mainly Leinster beating London Irish and hope that Ulster, Sale and the Cardiff Blues fail to pick up bonus point wins. A Northampton win would leave Munster hoping that Leinster can deny London Irish the bp win. If they don't then tries scored will come into the equation and Munster have scored 1 more try than Leinster.

Pool 2

Biarritz have already secured qualification and will be looking to seal a home quarter final with a bonus point win against Glasgow. Gloucester will be looking to get one of the 3 spots in the Challenge Cup when they travel to the Dragons.

Pool 3

The tightest of the pools but 2 sides will come through. Clermont will guarantee qualification with a bonus point win in Viadana with the winner of the Ospreys Leicester match joining them, only a bonus point win for Leicester will deny Clermont from topping the pool.

Pool 4

Paris are in control of this pool going into the final round with a 4 point lead over Ulster. A losing bonus point will be enough to take them through. Ulster need a bonus point win, coupled with no points for Paris, Munster holding Saints tryless, scoring 5 tries and hoping that Cardiff Blues and Sale fail to do likewise. Having said that Ulster have never won in England so there's little chance of them realistically being in contention this weekend.

Pool 5.

Toulouse secured their place in the knockout stages with their bonus point win over Quins. For Sale to qualify their predicament is similar to Ulster's, they'll need a bonus point win at home to Toulouse and hope that Munster can hold Saints tryless. If that does happen and Saints fail to get a bonus point then a 5 point win for Sale will be enough to take them through provided Leinster can win at Twickenham. That could all prove to be in vain though if Cardiff Blues manage to pick up a bonus point win at Quins as that would see them finish ahead of Sale because of the better head to head. In that scenario the Blues would need to score 5 tries to overtake Northampton and let the other scenarios play out as well.

Pool 6.

Leinster only need a losing bonus point to top the pool. London Irish will top the pool if they get a bonus point and win by more than 7. Leinster could already be through though before they play their match if Munster beat Northampton they'll be guaranteed at least a runner-up spot. The Scarlets aren't out of it yet, they need a bonus point win in Brive, Leinster to beat London Irish, Munster to beat Saints and hold them tryless and for Sale, Cardiff Blues and Ulster to not get a bonus point win.

So that's all the scenarios, my guess is that Munster will beat Saints, Biarritz will get the bp against Glasgow, Clermont will top pool 3 with the Ospreys taking the runner-up spot, Paris will get the bonus point they need to top their pool. Sale will only get the win against Toulouse. London Irish will probably beat Leinster but not by more than 7 and without the try bonus point.

All that would leave us with these quarter finals.

Munster v London Irish
Biarritz v Ospreys
Clermont v Paris
Leinster v Toulouse

So how do you think things will play out and what are your quarter final predictions?

 

[Bullitt]

Al lot to take in... Well done for working that out!

Not sure about your NotNots v Irish prediction though. If the Brive match is anything to go by, Leinster seem to be able to get results even when they maybe don't deserve them at the moment while Irish have gone nearly a month without a win - Morale soul-destroying also by throwing 2 results away in the final moments of matches (Saints and Scarlets).

From biased perspective, I want them to get beat. However from a realistic point of view, they're not in good health right now.

 

[gingergenius]

I can see Leicester turning the Hairsprays over. They're in great from, plus they're Leicester... and the Hairsprays are the Hairsprays.

I can't see Munster losing at home, but I hope Saints go through anyway.

Irish don't deserve to based on today.

Otherwise, my money's on a French winner this year.

 

[An Tarbh]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bullitt @ Jan 18 2010, 12:27 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Al lot to take in... Well done for working that out!

Not sure about your NotNots v Irish prediction though. If the Brive match is anything to go by, Leinster seem to be able to get results even when they maybe don't deserve them at the moment while Irish have gone nearly a month without a win - Morale soul-destroying also by throwing 2 results away in the final moments of matches (Saints and Scarlets).

From biased perspective, I want them to get beat. However from a realistic point of view, they're not in good health right now.[/b]

I take your point but it's a similar situation that we had last year when playing Wasps, knowing that we could afford to lose and true enough we did, Wasps weren't in the best of form then either, same with Castres when we went there as well, no form to speak of and yet they turned us over. Still though given it's the last pool game and that a win guarantees a home quarter final there's no reason for complacency.

 

[QLD]

Are top spot of each group in the QF and the two best 2nd spots get in?

 

[Bullitt]

Yep. 9, 10 & 11 seeds go into the Challenge Cup.

 

[dullonien]

I seriously hope that's what happens, because I think Biarritz are one of the easier teams there (not that any are easy!). Although Biarritz have waltzed through their pool, they aren't the quality of the likes of Muster, Leinster, Clermont or Tolouse, and the Ospreys would have a good chance of turning them over, even away.

That of course all depends on the Ospreys beating Leicester. Although I expect them to do that at home, Leicester are Leicester, as everyone keeps reminding me. However, the Ospreys are completely used to playing them, and have had a good run against them in recent years (EDF final, last years HC etc.), especially at home.

 

[monkeypigeon]

If Leinster were to beat LI and Nothampton were to get a bonus point (or 2) in Thomand and went through as the last seeded runner up and Munster the top seeds...Could we have a Munster vs Northampton Quarter Final in Thomand Park?

 

[stormer2010]

I have to say that JdV moving to Munster (even though he has hardly seen ball or form) and my getting behind a team in the HC has opened my eyes as to just how much better the format is than what our boys have come up with and I fear that it will just get worse from 2011 on; imagine all the French teams in 1 conference and all the Irish in another etc. So sad. Conferences are the way forward IMO but it needs to be a mixed bag and include teams form Arg, Fij, Tonga and Samoa IMO. But I guess thats for another thread, sorry.

John O'Neil, you chop!

 

[An Tarbh]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Monkeypigeon @ Jan 18 2010, 01:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

If Leinster were to beat LI and Nothampton were to get a bonus point (or 2) in Thomand and went through as the last seeded runner up and Munster the top seeds...Could we have a Munster vs Northampton Quarter Final in Thomand Park?[/b]

yeah that's very likely unless Leinster win with a bp and Munster don't, can't see that happening in fairness.

 

[bates]

I only saw this weekend games due to a busy calendar but I think whatever the games will be, they will bring exciting rugby as all the resting teams are quite good. I already reserved a seat in the pub with a pint of bitter love.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 18 2010, 12:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Leinster v Toulouse[/b]

I'd love to see that. To be the best team in Europe, you have to beat the best - Toulouse along with Munster and Leicester are the "big 3" in European rugby in my opinion. Beating Toulouse in the knockout stages would help Leinster climb closer to their level. A full house in Croke Park would be all but guaranteed.

 

[DonBilly]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (snoopy snoopy dog dog @ Jan 18 2010, 06:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 18 2010, 12:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Leinster v Toulouse[/b]

I'd love to see that. To be the best team in Europe, you have to beat the best - Toulouse along with Munster and Leicester are the "big 3" in European rugby in my opinion. Beating Toulouse in the knockout stages would help Leinster climb closer to their level. A full house in Croke Park would be all but guaranteed.
[/b][/quote]

Toulouse are not doing that well this season. Their halves are not playing well and their backs are not as efficient as they used to be. They are still far from securing on of the two top positions in the league table that would avoid them to have to play a QF for the Top14. This may change but the top14 is more and more tough. Leinster is currently better than Toulouse in my opinion. I think the only French side that can reach the final is Clermont.

 

[munstermuffin]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Jan 18 2010, 08:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (snoopy snoopy dog dog @ Jan 18 2010, 06:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 18 2010, 12:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Leinster v Toulouse[/b]

I'd love to see that. To be the best team in Europe, you have to beat the best - Toulouse along with Munster and Leicester are the "big 3" in European rugby in my opinion. Beating Toulouse in the knockout stages would help Leinster climb closer to their level. A full house in Croke Park would be all but guaranteed.
[/b][/quote]

Toulouse are not doing that well this season. Their halves are not playing well and their backs are not as efficient as they used to be. They are still far from securing on of the two top positions in the league table that would avoid them to have to play a QF for the Top14. This may change but the top14 is more and more tough. Leinster is currently better than Toulouse in my opinion. I think the only French side that can reach the final is Clermont.
[/b][/quote]
If you looked at Munster and to a lesser extent Leinster in November you'd say they playing poorly and not serious threats but it all about just timing the peaks.

 

[elgringoborracho]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Jan 18 2010, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (snoopy snoopy dog dog @ Jan 18 2010, 06:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 18 2010, 12:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Leinster v Toulouse[/b]

I'd love to see that. To be the best team in Europe, you have to beat the best - Toulouse along with Munster and Leicester are the "big 3" in European rugby in my opinion. Beating Toulouse in the knockout stages would help Leinster climb closer to their level. A full house in Croke Park would be all but guaranteed.
[/b][/quote]

Toulouse are not doing that well this season. Their halves are not playing well and their backs are not as efficient as they used to be. They are still far from securing on of the two top positions in the league table that would avoid them to have to play a QF for the Top14. This may change but the top14 is more and more tough. Leinster is currently better than Toulouse in my opinion. I think the only French side that can reach the final is Clermont.
[/b][/quote]

As Noves said though they are currently third in the Top 14 and will play the HCup QF, not bad from an out of form team. Games like the one against Quins show theiy still have a massive potential and the capacity to step up when they really need to.
I'm not worried about them reaching the Semis or even the Final, as munstermuffin says, they'll reach their peak when they have to.
Paris on the other hand... I'm not too sure

 

[DonBilly]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (elgringoborracho @ Jan 18 2010, 11:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Jan 18 2010, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (snoopy snoopy dog dog @ Jan 18 2010, 06:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 18 2010, 12:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Leinster v Toulouse[/b]

I'd love to see that. To be the best team in Europe, you have to beat the best - Toulouse along with Munster and Leicester are the "big 3" in European rugby in my opinion. Beating Toulouse in the knockout stages would help Leinster climb closer to their level. A full house in Croke Park would be all but guaranteed.
[/b][/quote]

Toulouse are not doing that well this season. Their halves are not playing well and their backs are not as efficient as they used to be. They are still far from securing on of the two top positions in the league table that would avoid them to have to play a QF for the Top14. This may change but the top14 is more and more tough. Leinster is currently better than Toulouse in my opinion. I think the only French side that can reach the final is Clermont.
[/b][/quote]

As Noves said though they are currently third in the Top 14 and will play the HCup QF, not bad from an out of form team. Games like the one against Quins show theiy still have a massive potential and the capacity to step up when they really need to.
I'm not worried about them reaching the Semis or even the Final, as munstermuffin says, they'll reach their peak when they have to.
Paris on the other hand... I'm not too sure
[/b][/quote]

Well Paris should start thinking about the next seasons, they may qualify for the Top14 play-offs which should be their top priority. I don't think they can play H-cup and Top14 with the same involvement. It's time to take a step back and have some medium term thinking. I am not sure this is achievable with the current coaching team. I am admirative of what Vern Cotter has achieved with Clemont in three years. Stade Francais needs a coach of this calibre. if Galthier could come back this would be the best. The Stade Français Rugby Academy starts to produce young valuable talents. This club can reestablish its position at the top of the French Rugby but it's time to mature a bit and to reorganise.

 

[ChiefsFan]

Toulouse have constantly been playing to a lesser standard in the T14 this year than in the HC, they always bring their A game for the big tourney, and I reckon they'll take it out at this rate, when they finally peak.

 

[Bernard]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (elgringoborracho @ Jan 18 2010, 11:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DonBilly @ Jan 18 2010, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (snoopy snoopy dog dog @ Jan 18 2010, 06:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Jan 18 2010, 12:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Leinster v Toulouse[/b]

I'd love to see that. To be the best team in Europe, you have to beat the best - Toulouse along with Munster and Leicester are the "big 3" in European rugby in my opinion. Beating Toulouse in the knockout stages would help Leinster climb closer to their level. A full house in Croke Park would be all but guaranteed.
[/b][/quote]

Toulouse are not doing that well this season. Their halves are not playing well and their backs are not as efficient as they used to be. They are still far from securing on of the two top positions in the league table that would avoid them to have to play a QF for the Top14. This may change but the top14 is more and more tough. Leinster is currently better than Toulouse in my opinion. I think the only French side that can reach the final is Clermont.
[/b][/quote]

As Noves said though they are currently third in the Top 14 and will play the HCup QF, not bad from an out of form team. Games like the one against Quins show theiy still have a massive potential and the capacity to step up when they really need to.
I'm not worried about them reaching the Semis or even the Final, as munstermuffin says, they'll reach their peak when they have to.
Paris on the other hand... I'm not too sure
[/b][/quote]


I agree with that . Toulouse has done a slow start but i think that there is a big potential to come . Sunday's match showed that Toulouse is always Toulouse , they had strong , quick and smart rugby sequences . Key players are coming back and this second part of season will be certainly different . Paris will be a bit short defenitly . Clermont is playing very well for now , lets see....

More largely , thanks An tarbh for your deep development of the current situation and i have to agree with your quarter finals a part for ospreys , i think leicester will win and will go to the quarter final . I see a toulouse-munster final .

 

[munstermuffin]

Lads ye should just realize its simple all good teams dont start well but finish strong .... when it matters.

Munster started well last year peaked in April and then folded vs Leinster.

But look on previous years did enough (just) in early games and then stormed through KO stages. Leinster, Munster, Toulouse and Leicester all testament to that.

 

[King_D'Arcy]

Munster vs Leinster final please