The way to beat the ABs probably won't change in the next two years and it starts with butchering them at the breakdown and at the coalface and giving them as little workable ball as possible. The next step is a suffocating defence that will ensure most of the good ball they do get dies somewhere in midfield. Then you try and score some points - which, hopefully, shouldn't be too hard if you're winning up front and have plenty of athleticism. When I talk about the coalface, I probably won't bother too much about the set-piece, as unless things change (or we get a dream unit together) we're not going to smash them there and I don't think we're going to get smashed either - but I do think a well oiled maul could pay huge dividends.
The coach I'd pick for that would be Schmidt, on the general principles of I'd pick him to do anything in rugby. Something might happen to change my opinion there, but I really doubt it. His assistants are "Whoever the hell he thinks he'll work well with" but for obvious reasons, it'd be good if one or two came from outside the Ireland camp and/or had prior Lions experience. Hypothetically, a team of Schmidt, Easterby, Rowntree and Edwards covers those bases - although it would be interesting to see if Schmidt feels like teaming up with Cotter again. Speaking selfishly, a summer of no Andy Farrell would be nice for England.
Player wise, at loosehead, you're probably looking at the English and Irish incumbents. Age and experience are on their side compared to the Welsh and Scottish, who will either be getting too old for such capers, or be rather short of know how. Shame, as it would have been made for Jenkins. Happily, people like Healy, Corbs, Marler and McGrath are what we want - they scrum well, they get around the field well, they tackle well. Wouldn't be looking at a barrelling impact sub like Vunipola for this.
Hooker's complicated - Best, Hibbard and Lawson will be (probably) too old for it, while Dylan Hartley is too much of a stupid pillock and will surely only get himself suspended if picked, which he shouldn't be, as he's a stupid pillock. Lets say one of them lasts and is in contention, while Ken Owens is obviously also in contention. There's a good argument for guys like Tom Youngs and Sean Cronin - throwing won't be a huge issue if you have a strong mauling game, and they get around the pitch well. Really like Webber too, and he can definitely perform against NZ. But then there's plenty of room for a youngster to bolt considering how shaky it all is.
Tighthead is an area which I think might be dominated by younger players. I mean, who's out there in the position who's really convincing who'll be in their prime then? Maybe Cole, maybe Wilson. Nope - the future is now; Ireland have Furlong and Moore, Wales have Lee and Thomas, England have Brookes, Wilson and Sinckler, Scotland, have, erm... anyway, we're teeming with young props, no point speculating too much further at this stage.
Lock will be insanely, insanely competitive. I don't think anyone would complain of the quality if we simply sent the current English first choice (granted, Parling will be a little old for it), yet there's so many great choices - there's the good Gray, AWJ, Toner, Davies, Gilchrist, Ball... plus another four or so locks us English think would work well for the national team if a gap ever opens up. I saved my favourite name for last though; Henderson is insanely quick for a lock and offers real physicality. Hopefully he'll learn to call lineouts so I can see my dream pairing of Launch-Henderson. That's the sort of athleticism we'll need if we're to keep up with them.
Reason I mentioned him there rather than at blindside is that I think we'll either want just insanely quick blindsides (i.e. Croft) or breakdown nuisances. Robshaw and O'Mahony would be a decent start at such a genre. Lydiate too I guess, so would Tom Wood in form. Smash options such as Burgess or Denton, I just don't see being as effective for the Lions come that time.
Openside - take the fit 3 out of O'Brien, Warburton, Tipuric and Henry; I'd love to believe an English option would breakthrough and establish their international credentials in time, but lulz no, while Scotland seem even more wedded to converted blindsides than us. Guess Dan Leavy deserves a shout as a potential bolter, particularly if O'Brien remains easily broken, but that's v speculative.
8's difficult, particularly as they'll be needed to contribute big style in defence, but will have to carry hard if you've got an undersized blindside. This far out I'd pin my hopes to Ben Morgan - or maybe mention Denton and Burgess again. Actually between Denton, Beattie and Ashe, this might be Scotland's best hope of a shirt. Billy needs to up his game. Heaslip will be pushing it slightly for age, although not that much; I'm more against him because he carries like a big girl's blouse. In theory I'd happily play Faletau but can't remember his last impressive game, but then haven't been keeping up great with Wales.
9 - Conor Murray, pray for competition
10 - Jonny Sexton, pray for competition
Wing - who cares as long as one of them can tackle Savea, they lose/gain form so readily that it's really dumb to call them this early. Obviously my hopes for Schmidt means a big emphasis on wingers who are good in the air and work hard.
Inside-centre is pretty difficult to call, as no one knows who Ireland or England will be playing then. The guys we can point to as being likely contenders - Roberts, Dunbar - are pretty bloody big, which is tricky, as you're looking for someone to (potentially) play with Tuilagi, which means ideally a distributor, or the wings become a little pointless. There are potential distributing options, but who knows whether they'll be demanding attention - or, heck, play Tuilagi there, and look to well renowned distributors Davies, Henshaw and Bennett... hmm. Also, it has to be pointed out that the centres are the one area where NZ are likely to change a lot, so who knows what they'll be looking like? In any case, there's so many potential options for both positions, I'd struggle to say much about which ones I'd want. My lulzy centre combo would be Olding-Slade, but I guess it's more likely that we'll get 2 big 12s, 1 10/12, Manu and a jinkier 13 option. Mindyou, if Tuilagi passed better, Schmidt would totally play Roberts-Tuilagi in a heart-beat. I'd also point out that centres who can actively add to the breakdown would be great.
Full-back - Halfpenny, Kearney, Watson/Nowell. Brown's getting on, Hogg's too flaky, I don't see any potential Irish bolter getting enough time off of Kearney and Liam Williams is too much of a Hartley.
NZ's biggest concerns will be a reliable replacement for Carter, a new centre-partnership, and some sub props who wouldn't struggle to make the Australian team (yeah I went there). I suppose their back-row could use freshening up, but they spawn back-rows with such regularity that one merely assumes it will happen. Persuading SBW to stick around could, imo, be a big thing for them as elsewise I'm not sure their backline will be physically threatening anyone. Fekitoa is a big boy, but he's not a Nonu.
