Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[Brigantine]

Most of the stats look reasonable except I personally don't buy that RSA has zero chance of beating NZ in a final.

Yeah, I agree. So earlier this year I made a more complex, 538-like model (i.e. based on 10,000 simulations). It is still based purely off of current WR Rankings, but also takes those rankings with a pinch of salt - i.e. there's a small chance any team might actually be at a level several points higher or lower than their current rankings suggest. (So basically the same thing, but more humble / open to big upsets)

This type of model makes it more easy to also factor in the qualifying process, so I did.
(Chance of qualifying to Pool A: Romania 96.5%, Samoa 83%, Russia 12%, Spain 8.0%, Portugal 0.2%)
(Chance of qualifying to Pool B: Namibia 87%, Russia 24% +2, Canada 21% +1, Spain 17% +2, Hong Kong 16% +3, Samoa 15% +1, Kenya 12%, Romania 2.2%, Portugal 2.2% +0.4, Uganda 1.0%, Morocco 0.9%, Germany 0.2% +0.1, Korea 0.2% +0.1, Zimbabwe 0.1%, Tunisia <0.1%, Uruguay 0% -11)
(Chance of qualifying to Pool D: Uruguay 100% +21, Canada 0% -21)

Anyway, for comparison, here is what the 538-like model currently predicts: (and +/- compared with the same model 2 weeks ago)

Grand Final Scenarios:

Scn 1 (17% -1 Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 10% NC)
Scn 2 (20% +4 Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 17% +2)
Scn 3 (12% NC Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% NC)
Scn 4 (9.0% -1.0 Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 21% NC)
Scn 5 (9.5% +1.0 Chance) - England > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 30% +3)
Scn 6 (6.0% -0.5 Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 15% NC)
Scn 7 (3.5% -3.0 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 6.0% -3.0)
Scn 8 (7.0% +2.5 Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 6.5% +2.5)
Scn 9 (1.8% -1.7 Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 12% -7)
Scn 10 (3.5% +1.3 Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 16% +6.5)
Scn 11 (2.2% -0.3 Chance) - England vs New Zealand (Chance of England win: 42% +2)

Also for interest - (0.6% +0.1 Chance) - South Africa vs New Zealand (Chance of SA win: 20% NC)
- The difference from Scn 3 is that South Africa was 1st in Pool and beat England, while New Zealand was 2nd in Pool.

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 59% +1 Chance (and for runner-up 7.5% +0.5)
England - 26% -1 Chance (runner-up 8.0% NC)
Ireland - 7.5% +1.5 Chance (runner-up 24% +3)
Australia - 4.5% -0.5 Chance (runner-up 23% -2)
South Africa - 2.0% NC Chance (runner-up 17% -1)
Wales - 1.4% +0.8 Chance (runner-up 10% +3.5)
Scotland - 0.6% -1.0 Chance (runner-up 5.5% -4.0)

And only a <0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win, but a 4.5% -0.5 chance the runner-up will be Argentina (2.2% NC), France (1.4% -0.6), Fiji (0.5% -0.1) or Japan (0.5% +0.1).

 

[Brigantine]

here is what the 538-like model currently predicts:

Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model as of 3 weeks ago.

Grand Final Scenarios:

Scn 1 (18% +1 Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 11% +1)
Scn 2 (21% +1 Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 19% +2)
Scn 3 (12% NC Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% NC)
Scn 4 (6.5% -2.5 Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 28% +7)
Scn 5 (7.5% -2.0 Chance) - England > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 38% +8)
Scn 6 (4.5% -1.5 Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 22% +7)
Scn 7 (7.0% +3.5 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 9.0% +3.0)
Scn 8 (6.5% -0.5 Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 5.5% -1.0)
Scn 9 (2.5% +0.7 Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 28% +16)
Scn 10 (2.0% -1.5 Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 21% +5)
Scn 11 (1.8% -0.4 Chance) - England vs New Zealand (Chance of England win: 33% -9)

Also for interest - (0.6% NC Chance) - South Africa vs New Zealand (Chance of SA win: 17% -3)
- The difference from Scn 3 is that South Africa was 1st in Pool and beat England, while New Zealand was 2nd in Pool.

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 63% +4 Chance (and for runner-up 8.5% +1.0)
England - 18% -8 Chance (runner-up 8.5% +0.5)
Ireland - 9.0% +1.5 Chance (runner-up 23% -1)
Australia - 5.0% +0.5 Chance (runner-up 22% -1)
South Africa - 2.2% +0.2 Chance (runner-up 16% -1)
Scotland - 2.0% +1.4 Chance (runner-up 9.5% +4.0)
Wales - 1.2% -0.2 Chance (runner-up 8.5% -1.5)

And only a <0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win, but a 4.0% -0.5 chance the runner-up will be Argentina (2.0% -0.2), France (1.2% -0.2), Fiji (0.5% NC) or Japan (0.3% -0.2).

England take a hit, Scotland make up the ground they lost in Wales.
Ireland's chances keep improving, Wales slide a bit but still in view, holding on to most of what they gained in round 1.

Things suddenly seem much more daunting for poor old Japan in Pool A! Their chance of a QF drops from 27% to 20%.

 

[The Jones Boy]

England vs the All Blacks in the play off for 3rd and 4th.
The final contested by Ireland and Japan.

 

[Brigantine]

Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model as of 2 weeks ago.

Grand Final Scenarios:

Scn 1 (18% NC Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 11% NC)
Scn 2 (29% +8 Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 22% +3)
Scn 3 (13% +1 Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% NC)
Scn 4 (3.5% -3.0 Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 36% +8)
Scn 5 (5.0% -2.5 Chance) - England > Ireland (Chance of England win: 50% -12)
Scn 6 (2.5% -2.0 Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 31% +9)
Scn 7 (5.5% -1.5 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 6.5% -2.5)
Scn 8 (6.0% -0.5 Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 6.0% +0.5)
Scn 9 (1.0% -1.5 Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 38% +10)
Scn 10 (0.8% -1.2 Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 21% NC)
Scn 11 (1.2% -0.6 Chance) - England vs New Zealand (Chance of England win: 22% -11)
Scn 12 (2.5% +1.9 Chance) - New Zealand vs England (Chance of Upset: 13% -9)

Also for interest - (0.8% +0.2 Chance) - South Africa vs New Zealand (Chance of SA win: 19% +2)
- The difference from Scn 3 is that South Africa was 1st in Pool and beat England, while New Zealand was 2nd in Pool.

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 69% +6 Chance (and for runner-up 11% +2.5)
Ireland - 11% +2.0 Chance (runner-up 26% +3)
England - 9.5% -8.5 Chance (runner-up 8.5% NC)
Australia - 5.0% NC Chance (runner-up 20% -2)
South Africa - 2.2% NC Chance (runner-up 15% -1)
Scotland - 1.4% -0.6 Chance (runner-up 7.0% -2.5)
Wales - 1.2% NC Chance (runner-up 7.5% -1.0)

And only a 0.1% +0.1 Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1% +0.1), but a 4.5% +0.5 chance the runner-up will be Argentina (1.4% -0.6), France (2.5% +1.3), Fiji (0.4% -0.1) or Japan (0.3% NC).

 

[FrenchFan]

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 69% +6 Chance (and for runner-up 11% +2.5)
Ireland - 11% +2.0 Chance (runner-up 26% +3)
England - 9.5% -8.5 Chance (runner-up 8.5% NC)
Australia - 5.0% NC Chance (runner-up 20% -2)
South Africa - 2.2% NC Chance (runner-up 15% -1)
Scotland - 1.4% -0.6 Chance (runner-up 7.0% -2.5)
Wales - 1.2% NC Chance (runner-up 7.5% -1.0)

And only a 0.1% +0.1 Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1% +0.1), but a 4.5% +0.5 chance the runner-up will be Argentina (1.4% -0.6), France (2.5% +1.3), Fiji (0.4% -0.1) or Japan (0.3% NC).

this is the big issue facing WR about the test game. The list of challengers to NZ and potential RWC is shrinking when it shud be expanding. Else the game has run itself into a blind alley. What are WR doing about it?

At this rate it'll be harder to win the Champs Cup than the RWC.

 

[Derpus]

this is the big issue facing WR about the test game. The list of challengers to NZ and potential RWC is shrinking when it shud be expanding. Else the game has run itself into a blind alley. What are WR doing about it?

At this rate it'll be harder to win the Champs Cup than the RWC.

This is contradictory. If it's getting harder to beat NZ it's getting harder to win the RWC?

Agree though, if NZ win a third on the trot it will be a ******* disaster for rugby.

 

[AM_Bokke]

I understand that NZ being so dominant is a little bit boring.

BUT NZ rugby is incredibly special. NZ is a small country located far, far away at the bottom of the world. It is magic what they have accomplished.

The NZRU is not Real Madrid or Man United. Winning by throwing money at trophies. The fact that they are dominant is incredible.

While NZ is not my team, I find that they are a very positive part of rugby's global story.

 

[Derpus]

I understand that NZ being so dominant is a little bit boring.

BUT NZ rugby is incredibly special. NZ is a small country located far, far away at the bottom of the world. It is magic what they have accomplished.

The NZRU is not Real Madrid or Man United. Winning by throwing money at trophies. The fact that they are dominant is incredible.

While NZ is not my team, I find that they are a very positive part of rugby's global story.

Yeah but lets be frank, no one cares that much about someone else's success. There needs to be a realistic chance of success in a competition for it to be interesting.

The essence of sport is competition and if it's just a procession to an inevitable NZ victory it simply won't be worth watching anymore.

 

[AM_Bokke]

Fair comment,

But NZ are also spectacular. Their play is so much more entertaining than England, Saracens, Leinster, Montpellier or Ireland. (No disrespect to Ireland).

It is NZ that makes rugby worth watching for people that didn't grow up with the sport. Even a lot of people that played it in school can't even watch it.

I am sorry. I just have a hard time thinking that NZ is a weakness for the global sport.

Rugby has plenty of other weaknesses though.

 

[Derpus]

Fair comment,

But NZ are also spectacular. Their play is so much more entertaining than England, Saracens, Leinster, Montpellier or Ireland. (No disrespect to Ireland).

It is NZ that makes rugby worth watching for people that didn't grow up with the sport. Even a lot of people that played it in school can't even watch it.

I am sorry. I just have a hard time thinking that NZ is a weakness for the global sport.

Rugby has plenty of other weaknesses though.

The point is that it is becoming less likely that another team can play attractive, winning rugby to match them, and NZ therefore can't lose (just about). That's what's bad. New Zealand alone aren't bad a priori. New Zealand winning all the time is.

 

[FrenchFan]

This is contradictory. If it's getting harder to beat NZ it's getting harder to win the RWC?

Agree though, if NZ win a third on the trot it will be a ******* disaster for rugby.

Didn't say it's harder to win the RWC. I said it'll be harder to win the Champs Cup than the RWC if the club game continues to expand while the test game shrinks.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

I understand that NZ being so dominant is a little bit boring.

BUT NZ rugby is incredibly special. NZ is a small country located far, far away at the bottom of the world. It is magic what they have accomplished.

The NZRU is not Real Madrid or Man United. Winning by throwing money at trophies. The fact that they are dominant is incredible.

While NZ is not my team, I find that they are a very positive part of rugby's global story.

I am not convinced of that.
Credit where credit is due, they do amazing stuff with the resources (talent, money) they have at their disposal but their case is hardly unique. In layman terms, they just put all their eggs in one basket and keep a good eye on it, while others tend to split their resources across more sports.

Rugby is a sport dominated by 10-15 nations at best, and in every single one of those, Rugby is not the most popular sport, in most cases, not even close in most cases. Their best athletes are not brought up with a rugby ball in hand and have no posters of rugby players in their rooms.
Fact is, there are only two countries where rugby is/was the most popular sport: NZ and Wales, and they both punch/ed way above their weight (record and stats wise).

There are also quite a few examples of similar achievements:

- Uruguay in football in the 1920/30s
- the Netherlands in speed skating
- Fiji in sevens

The best (counter) example i can give you is the US team in 7s. If you look at rugby sevens in the 1980s 90s, it was all NZ and Fiji. NZ because they used it as a place to test potential ABs (Cullen, Lomu, etc were all sevens players) and Fiji because they focused on it. The rest of the teams at the time, didn't care, literally.
Then other teams started to care and countries with a sizeable rugby community started to reduce the gap (England, Aus, RSA, etc.).
Then the prospect of making it an Olympic game came up and the US decided to put just a bit of money on it: third tier athletes, good ones, but third tier by US standards. I mean people who are fast, really fast, but didnt make it to their track team, people who were big, but didnt make it to the NFL. With those resources, they completely changed the landscape.
10 years ago the idea of the US competing in equal terms against Fiji or NZ in sevens was laughable, yet with just the scraps of the big boys table, they did it.
The idea of a US player going around in circles past 4 Fijians in a sevens final would have been laughable not long ago.

What i am trying to say is, it's not that Fiji were THAT good. It's that the rest of the countries didn't care. A bit of the same happens in 15s. Maybe not to the same extent, but it certainly explains part of NZs success.

One more time, what NZ does with their resources is amazing, but their success is not just about that unfortunately, it's also about what the rest of the nations do with theirs.

 

[Lomu]

NZ are the epitome of the sport of rugby. The fact that they are so good makes it even more enjoyable when somebody beats them, like the French in the WC or the Irish in Chicago. Epic occasions and top entertainment. Then theres the top level rugby they provide. Its up to the rest to catch up which is gonna happen by two or three NH teams. Rugby and its popularity needs the ABs and of course the haka.

 

[Brigantine]

Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model in March.

Grand Final Scenarios:
(Scenario Numbers have changed)

Scn 1 (29% NC Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 24% +2)
Scn 2 (21% +3 Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 15% +4)
Scn 3 (11% +5.0 Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 11% +5.0)
Scn 4 (11% -2 Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% NC)
Scn 5 (4.5% -1.0 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 7.0% +0.5)
Scn 6 (2.2% -0.3 Chance) - New Zealand > England (Chance of Upset: 6.0% -7.0)
Scn 7 (1.6% -3.4 Chance) - England < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 57% +7)
Scn 8 (1.4% -2.1 Chance) - England < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 54% +18)
Scn 9 (1.4% NEW Chance) - Australia > Wales (Chance of Upset: 39%)
Scn 10 (1.4% NEW Chance) - Wales < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 51%)
Scn 11 (1.0% NEW Chance) - Australia < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 60%)
Scn 12 (1.0% NEW Chance) - Ireland < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 51%)

Scn 13 (0.8% NC Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 17% -2)
Scn 14 (0.6% -0.6 Chance) - England < New Zealand (Chance of England win: 17% -5)

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 72% +3 Chance (and for runner-up 13% +2)
Ireland - 11% NC Chance (runner-up 25% -1)
Australia - 7.5% +2.5 Chance (runner-up 22% +2)
Wales - 4.0% +2.8 Chance (runner-up 13% +5.5)
England - 3.0% -6.5 Chance (runner-up 5.5% -3.0)
South Africa - 1.8% -0.4 Chance (runner-up 13% -2)
Scotland - 1.2% -0.2 Chance (runner-up 6.5% -0.5)

And only a 0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1% NC), but a 2.8% -1.7 chance the runner-up will be Argentina (0.6% -0.8), France (1.6% -0.9), Fiji (0.3% -0.1) or Japan (0.3% NC).

 

[mania]

Agree though, if NZ win a third on the trot it will be a ******* disaster for rugby.

not for us. this is for all those pundits who each WC would say that NZ would choke. this wold also increase the particiation levels of rugby in NZ
im slightly biased but i'd like to see ABs get 5 in a row. thats a huge ask tho

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

not for us. this is for all those pundits who each WC would say that NZ would choke. this wold also increase the particiation levels of rugby in NZ
im slightly biased but i'd like to see ABs get 5 in a row. thats a huge ask tho

Wouldn't be great for participation anywhere else though...

 

[mania]

Wouldn't be great for participation anywhere else though...

well pick up your game then

 

[Welshdragon2000]

I think for the growth of the game you need a smaller rugby nation have a good world cup run. Realistically this is Japan and will prompt a growth i participation in Japan and other Asian countries. I also think that another good World Cup for Georgia would be big and finishing third for them in their group would be excellent considering the other sides in the group. Can't realistically see any other upsets in terms of tier 2 teams having success in the tournament. I would like Argentina to do well (tier 1 i know) and make a claim for a second franchise in Super Rugby.
The last thing we need is to have New Zealand winning 3 in a row let alone 5 in a row! Can't see Wales winning it anytime soon but to see a different winner each time (preferably from different hemispheres) would be great.

 

[Derpus]

well pick up your game then

Yeah, you might find yourselves the best in the world in a game no one plays eh.

 

[mania]

Yeah, you might find yourselves the best in the world in a game no one plays eh.

or a rugby championship without the WBs, which is a very foreseeable prospect unless aus get their sht togther