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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 894621" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model as of 2 weeks ago.</p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Grand Final Scenarios:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Scn 1 (18% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 11% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 2 (29% <span style="font-size: 9px">+8</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 22% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>)</p><p>Scn 3 (13% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1</span> Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 4 (3.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-3.0</span> Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 36% <span style="font-size: 9px">+8</span>)</p><p>Scn 5 (5.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.5</span> Chance) - England > Ireland (Chance of England win: 50% <span style="font-size: 9px">-12</span>)</p><p>Scn 6 (2.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.0</span> Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 31% <span style="font-size: 9px">+9</span>)</p><p>Scn 7 (5.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.5</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 6.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.5</span>)</p><p>Scn 8 (6.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.5</span> Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 6.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span>)</p><p>Scn 9 (1.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.5</span> Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 38% <span style="font-size: 9px">+10</span>)</p><p>Scn 10 (0.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.2</span> Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 21% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Scn 11 (1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.6</span> Chance) - England vs New Zealand (Chance of England win: 22% <span style="font-size: 9px">-11</span>)</p><p>Scn 12 (<strong>2.5%</strong> <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.9</span> Chance) - <strong>New Zealand</strong> vs <strong>England</strong> (Chance of Upset: 13% <span style="font-size: 9px">-9</span>)</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">Also for interest - (0.8% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.2</span> Chance) - South Africa vs New Zealand (Chance of SA win: 19% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2</span>)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"> - The difference from Scn 3 is that South Africa was 1st in Pool and beat England, while New Zealand was 2nd in Pool.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Potential World Champions:</strong></span></p><p></p><p>New Zealand - 69% <span style="font-size: 9px">+6</span> Chance (and for runner-up 11% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.5</span>)</p><p>Ireland - 11% <span style="font-size: 9px">+2.0</span> Chance (runner-up 26% <span style="font-size: 9px">+3</span>)</p><p>England - 9.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-8.5</span> Chance (runner-up 8.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>)</p><p>Australia - 5.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (runner-up 20% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2</span>)</p><p>South Africa - 2.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (runner-up 15% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1</span>)</p><p>Scotland - 1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.6</span> Chance (runner-up 7.0% <span style="font-size: 9px">-2.5</span>)</p><p>Wales - 1.2% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span> Chance (runner-up 7.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">-1.0</span>)</p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">And only a 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span> Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.1</span>), but a 4.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+0.5</span> chance the runner-up will be Argentina (1.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.6</span>), France (2.5% <span style="font-size: 9px">+1.3</span>), Fiji (0.4% <span style="font-size: 9px">-0.1</span>) or Japan (0.3% <span style="font-size: 9px">NC</span>).</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 894621, member: 73940"] Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model as of 2 weeks ago. [SIZE=5] [B]Grand Final Scenarios:[/B][/SIZE] Scn 1 (18% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 11% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 2 (29% [SIZE=1]+8[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 22% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE]) Scn 3 (13% [SIZE=1]+1[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 5% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 4 (3.5% [SIZE=1]-3.0[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 36% [SIZE=1]+8[/SIZE]) Scn 5 (5.0% [SIZE=1]-2.5[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Ireland (Chance of England win: 50% [SIZE=1]-12[/SIZE]) Scn 6 (2.5% [SIZE=1]-2.0[/SIZE] Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 31% [SIZE=1]+9[/SIZE]) Scn 7 (5.5% [SIZE=1]-1.5[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 6.5% [SIZE=1]-2.5[/SIZE]) Scn 8 (6.0% [SIZE=1]-0.5[/SIZE] Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 6.0% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE]) Scn 9 (1.0% [SIZE=1]-1.5[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 38% [SIZE=1]+10[/SIZE]) Scn 10 (0.8% [SIZE=1]-1.2[/SIZE] Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 21% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Scn 11 (1.2% [SIZE=1]-0.6[/SIZE] Chance) - England vs New Zealand (Chance of England win: 22% [SIZE=1]-11[/SIZE]) Scn 12 ([B]2.5%[/B] [SIZE=1]+1.9[/SIZE] Chance) - [B]New Zealand[/B] vs [B]England[/B] (Chance of Upset: 13% [SIZE=1]-9[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2]Also for interest - (0.8% [SIZE=1]+0.2[/SIZE] Chance) - South Africa vs New Zealand (Chance of SA win: 19% [SIZE=1]+2[/SIZE])[/SIZE] [SIZE=2] - The difference from Scn 3 is that South Africa was 1st in Pool and beat England, while New Zealand was 2nd in Pool.[/SIZE] [SIZE=5] [B]Potential World Champions:[/B][/SIZE] New Zealand - 69% [SIZE=1]+6[/SIZE] Chance (and for runner-up 11% [SIZE=1]+2.5[/SIZE]) Ireland - 11% [SIZE=1]+2.0[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 26% [SIZE=1]+3[/SIZE]) England - 9.5% [SIZE=1]-8.5[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 8.5% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]) Australia - 5.0% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 20% [SIZE=1]-2[/SIZE]) South Africa - 2.2% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 15% [SIZE=1]-1[/SIZE]) Scotland - 1.4% [SIZE=1]-0.6[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 7.0% [SIZE=1]-2.5[/SIZE]) Wales - 1.2% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE] Chance (runner-up 7.5% [SIZE=1]-1.0[/SIZE]) [SIZE=2] And only a 0.1% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE] Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1% [SIZE=1]+0.1[/SIZE]), but a 4.5% [SIZE=1]+0.5[/SIZE] chance the runner-up will be Argentina (1.4% [SIZE=1]-0.6[/SIZE]), France (2.5% [SIZE=1]+1.3[/SIZE]), Fiji (0.4% [SIZE=1]-0.1[/SIZE]) or Japan (0.3% [SIZE=1]NC[/SIZE]).[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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