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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 951467" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>The WR Rankings give the home team a 3 RP bonus. In RWC Finals the results have double weighting, but it's still +3 RP for home advantage.</p><p></p><p>Per <a href="http://www.world.rugby/rankings/explanation" target="_blank">world.rugby/rankings/explanation</a></p><div style="margin-left: 20px"><em>To 'handicap' the home side, we treat them as though they are three points stronger than their current rating, which means that they will tend to pick up fewer points for winning, and give away more points for losing</em></div><p></p><p>My model blindly follows World Rugby on that point. Maybe that isn't the right level of home advantage to predict RWC games. Maybe it's wrong even for normal test matches. But 3 of the 8 RWCs to date have been won by host countries.</p><p></p><p>Japan have just had wins against Fiji and Tonga these last 2 weekends bringing them up to 76.62 RP (just a hair below Argentina). With the 3 RP for home advantage factored in, they are on 79.62 RP, in between Scotland and France. Every 0.2 RP difference makes for a 1pp change in win probability. Two evenly matched teams would each have a 48%/49% chance, so the 0.55 RP gap brings Scotland up about 3pp from there, and Japan down about 3pp from there.</p><p></p><p>WR Rankings are quite volatile too, If Japan lose big to USA this weekend, that Japan vs Scotland game will look more like 35%, 2.5%, 63%. <span style="font-size: 10px">(and Argentina vs USA might be 59%, 2.5%, 39%).</span></p><p>You expect surprising things to show up one game, and then subside a few games later.</p><p></p><p>For comparison, <a href="https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-2#post-851701" target="_blank">my first predictions back in May 2017</a> gave Scotland a 75% chance vs Japan.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 951467, member: 73940"] The WR Rankings give the home team a 3 RP bonus. In RWC Finals the results have double weighting, but it's still +3 RP for home advantage. Per [URL='http://www.world.rugby/rankings/explanation']world.rugby/rankings/explanation[/URL] [INDENT][I]To 'handicap' the home side, we treat them as though they are three points stronger than their current rating, which means that they will tend to pick up fewer points for winning, and give away more points for losing[/I][/INDENT] My model blindly follows World Rugby on that point. Maybe that isn't the right level of home advantage to predict RWC games. Maybe it's wrong even for normal test matches. But 3 of the 8 RWCs to date have been won by host countries. Japan have just had wins against Fiji and Tonga these last 2 weekends bringing them up to 76.62 RP (just a hair below Argentina). With the 3 RP for home advantage factored in, they are on 79.62 RP, in between Scotland and France. Every 0.2 RP difference makes for a 1pp change in win probability. Two evenly matched teams would each have a 48%/49% chance, so the 0.55 RP gap brings Scotland up about 3pp from there, and Japan down about 3pp from there. WR Rankings are quite volatile too, If Japan lose big to USA this weekend, that Japan vs Scotland game will look more like 35%, 2.5%, 63%. [SIZE=2](and Argentina vs USA might be 59%, 2.5%, 39%).[/SIZE] You expect surprising things to show up one game, and then subside a few games later. For comparison, [URL='https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-2#post-851701']my first predictions back in May 2017[/URL] gave Scotland a 75% chance vs Japan. [/QUOTE]
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