Menu
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
Latest activity
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles and first posts only
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Help Support The Rugby Forum :
Forums
Rugby Union
Rugby World Cup 2023
Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 953849" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>This sounded interesting, so I had to check it out... Here are the match results along with England's chance of victory implied by the rankings at the time, factoring in home advantage:</p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">(venue is in bold when home advantage means the lower ranked team is favoured. Score is in bold when the winning margin is high enough (15+) to qualify for the 1.5x weighting on Rankings Points won)</span></p><p></p><p>England <strong><u> lost</u></strong> 6 13 v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>17 Aug 2019</strong> - The rankings said: England behind 1.55 RP + 3 HA -> 27% chance</p><p>England won 33 19 v Wales Twickenham <strong>11 Aug 2019</strong> - England behind 3.69 RP - 3 HA -> <u><strong>47% chance [wrong by 3pp]</strong></u></p><p>England <strong><u> lost</u></strong> 13 21 v Wales <strong><u>Millennium Stadium</u></strong> <strong>23 Feb 2019</strong> - England behind <u>3 HA - 0.47 RP</u> -> 37% chance</p><p>England won 12 6 v Wales Twickenham <strong>10 Feb 2018</strong> - England ahead 7.44 RP + 3 HA -> 100% chance</p><p>England won 21 16 v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>11 Feb 2017</strong> - England ahead 7.47 RP - 3 HA -> 72% chance</p><p>England won 27 13 v Wales Twickenham <strong>29 May 2016</strong> - England ahead 0.88 RP + 3 HA -> 69% chance</p><p>England won 25 21 v Wales <strong><u>Twickenham</u> </strong> <strong>12 Mar 2016</strong> - England ahead <u>3 HA - 1.80 RP</u> -> 56% chance</p><p>England <strong><u>lost</u></strong> 25 28 v Wales Twickenham <strong>26 Sep 2015</strong>- England ahead 0.41 RP + 3 HA -> <u><strong>67% chance [wrong by 17pp]</strong></u></p><p>England won 21 16 v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>6 Feb 2015</strong> - England ahead 3.21 RP - 3 HA -> 51% chance</p><p>England won 29 18 v Wales Twickenham <strong>9 Mar 2014 </strong>- England ahead 4.86 RP + 3 HA -> 89% chance</p><p>England <strong> <u>lost</u></strong> <u><strong>3 30</strong></u> v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>16 Mar 2013</strong> - England ahead 3.52 RP - 3 HA -> <u><strong>53% chance [wrong by 3pp]</strong></u></p><p>England <strong><u> lost</u> </strong> 12 19 v Wales Twickenham <strong>25 Feb 2012</strong> - England ahead 0.88 RP + 3 HA -> <u><strong>69% chance [wrong by 19pp]</strong></u></p><p>England <strong><u> lost</u> </strong> 9 19 v Wales <strong><u>Millennium Stadium</u></strong> <strong>13 Aug 2011</strong> - England behind <u>3 HA - 1.66 RP</u> -> 43% chance</p><p>England won 23 19 v Wales Twickenham <strong>6 Aug 2011</strong> - England ahead 2.93 RP + 3 HA -> 80% chance</p><p>England won 26 19 v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>4 Feb 2011</strong> - England ahead 5.44RP - 3 HA -> 62% chance</p><p>England won 30 17 v Wales Twickenham <strong>6 Feb 2010</strong> - England ahead 0.83 RP + 3 HA -> 69% chance</p><p></p><p>Of the last 16 games, if you had flipped a coin you would be right 8/16 times,</p><p>if you had bet on England every time you would be right 10/16 times,</p><p>if you had bet on the home team every time, you would be right 10/16 times,</p><p>if you had bet on the WRR favoured team, you would be right 12/16 times, (including 4/6 where Wales won).</p><p></p><p>More importantly, the calibration:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">England had an 80-100% implied chance 3 times. You would expect them to win ~90% (i.e. 2.7) of them, they won 3.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">They had a 60-79% implied chance 6 times. You would expect them to win ~70% (i.e. 4.2) of them, they won 4.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">They had a 40-59% implied chance 5 times. You would expect them to win ~50% (i.e. 2.5) of them, they won 3.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">They had a 20-39% implied chance twice. You would expect them to win ~30% (i.e. 0.6) of them, they won 0.</li> </ul><p></p><p>The rankings did a pretty damn good job for those 16 games if you ask me.</p><p></p><p>Just for curiosity, I went all the way back to the introduction of the WR Rankings:</p><p></p><p>England <strong><u>lost</u></strong> 15 23 v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>14 Feb 2009</strong> - England behind 0.93 RP + 3 HA -> 31% chance</p><p>England <strong><u> lost</u></strong> 19 26 v Wales Twickenham <strong>2 Feb 2008</strong> - England ahead 11.40 RP + 3 HA -> <u><strong>100% chance [big stuff up this one!] <<<<<<<<</strong></u></p><p>England won <u><strong>62 5</strong></u> v Wales Twickenham <strong>4 Aug 2007</strong> - England ahead 2.73 RP + 3 HA -> 79% chance</p><p>England <strong><u> lost</u></strong> 18 27 v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>17 Mar 2007</strong> - England ahead 3.44 RP - 3 HA -><u><strong> 52% chance [wrong by 2pp]</strong></u></p><p>England won <u><strong>47 13</strong></u> v Wales Twickenham <strong>4 Feb 2006</strong> - England ahead 0.73 RP + 3 HA -> 69% chance</p><p>England <strong><u> lost</u></strong> 9 11 v Wales Millennium Stadium <strong>5 Feb 2005</strong> - England ahead 9.68 RP - 3 HA -> <u><strong>83% chance [wrong by 33pp]</strong></u></p><p>England won 31 21 v Wales Twickenham <strong>20 Mar 2004</strong> - England ahead 15.78 RP + 3 HA -> 100% chance</p><p>England won 28 17 v Wales Brisbane <strong>9 Nov 2003</strong> - England ahead 13.32 RP + 0 HA -> 100% chance</p><p></p><p>Of all 24 games, if you had flipped a coin you would be right 12/24 times,</p><p>if you had bet on England every time you would be right 14/24 times,</p><p>if you had bet on the home team every game, you would be right 16/23 times,</p><p>if you had bet on the WRR favoured team, you would be right 17/24 times.</p><p></p><p>More importantly, the calibration:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">England had an 80-100% implied chance 7 times. You would expect them to win ~90% (i.e. 6.3) of them, they won 5.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">They had a 60-79% implied chance 8 times. You would expect them to win ~70% (i.e. 5.6) of them, they won 6.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">They had a 40-59% implied chance 6 times. You would expect them to win ~50% (i.e. 3.0) of them, they won 3.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">They had a 20-39% implied chance 3 times. You would expect them to win ~30% (i.e. 0.9) of them, they won 0.</li> </ul><p>The only time the rankings look less than perfect, is in that 2008 game. So... what happened on 2 Feb 2008? <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite5" alt=":confused:" title="Confused :confused:" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":confused:" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 953849, member: 73940"] This sounded interesting, so I had to check it out... Here are the match results along with England's chance of victory implied by the rankings at the time, factoring in home advantage: [SIZE=3](venue is in bold when home advantage means the lower ranked team is favoured. Score is in bold when the winning margin is high enough (15+) to qualify for the 1.5x weighting on Rankings Points won)[/SIZE] England [B][U] lost[/U][/B] 6 13 v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]17 Aug 2019[/B] - The rankings said: England behind 1.55 RP + 3 HA -> 27% chance England won 33 19 v Wales Twickenham [B]11 Aug 2019[/B] - England behind 3.69 RP - 3 HA -> [U][B]47% chance [wrong by 3pp][/B][/U] England [B][U] lost[/U][/B] 13 21 v Wales [B][U]Millennium Stadium[/U][/B] [B]23 Feb 2019[/B] - England behind [U]3 HA - 0.47 RP[/U] -> 37% chance England won 12 6 v Wales Twickenham [B]10 Feb 2018[/B] - England ahead 7.44 RP + 3 HA -> 100% chance England won 21 16 v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]11 Feb 2017[/B] - England ahead 7.47 RP - 3 HA -> 72% chance England won 27 13 v Wales Twickenham [B]29 May 2016[/B] - England ahead 0.88 RP + 3 HA -> 69% chance England won 25 21 v Wales [B][U]Twickenham[/U] [/B] [B]12 Mar 2016[/B] - England ahead [U]3 HA - 1.80 RP[/U] -> 56% chance England [B][U]lost[/U][/B] 25 28 v Wales Twickenham [B]26 Sep 2015[/B]- England ahead 0.41 RP + 3 HA -> [U][B]67% chance [wrong by 17pp][/B][/U] England won 21 16 v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]6 Feb 2015[/B] - England ahead 3.21 RP - 3 HA -> 51% chance England won 29 18 v Wales Twickenham [B]9 Mar 2014 [/B]- England ahead 4.86 RP + 3 HA -> 89% chance England [B] [U]lost[/U][/B] [U][B]3 30[/B][/U] v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]16 Mar 2013[/B] - England ahead 3.52 RP - 3 HA -> [U][B]53% chance [wrong by 3pp][/B][/U] England [B][U] lost[/U] [/B] 12 19 v Wales Twickenham [B]25 Feb 2012[/B] - England ahead 0.88 RP + 3 HA -> [U][B]69% chance [wrong by 19pp][/B][/U] England [B][U] lost[/U] [/B] 9 19 v Wales [B][U]Millennium Stadium[/U][/B] [B]13 Aug 2011[/B] - England behind [U]3 HA - 1.66 RP[/U] -> 43% chance England won 23 19 v Wales Twickenham [B]6 Aug 2011[/B] - England ahead 2.93 RP + 3 HA -> 80% chance England won 26 19 v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]4 Feb 2011[/B] - England ahead 5.44RP - 3 HA -> 62% chance England won 30 17 v Wales Twickenham [B]6 Feb 2010[/B] - England ahead 0.83 RP + 3 HA -> 69% chance Of the last 16 games, if you had flipped a coin you would be right 8/16 times, if you had bet on England every time you would be right 10/16 times, if you had bet on the home team every time, you would be right 10/16 times, if you had bet on the WRR favoured team, you would be right 12/16 times, (including 4/6 where Wales won). More importantly, the calibration: [LIST] [*]England had an 80-100% implied chance 3 times. You would expect them to win ~90% (i.e. 2.7) of them, they won 3. [*]They had a 60-79% implied chance 6 times. You would expect them to win ~70% (i.e. 4.2) of them, they won 4. [*]They had a 40-59% implied chance 5 times. You would expect them to win ~50% (i.e. 2.5) of them, they won 3. [*]They had a 20-39% implied chance twice. You would expect them to win ~30% (i.e. 0.6) of them, they won 0. [/LIST] The rankings did a pretty damn good job for those 16 games if you ask me. Just for curiosity, I went all the way back to the introduction of the WR Rankings: England [B][U]lost[/U][/B] 15 23 v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]14 Feb 2009[/B] - England behind 0.93 RP + 3 HA -> 31% chance England [B][U] lost[/U][/B] 19 26 v Wales Twickenham [B]2 Feb 2008[/B] - England ahead 11.40 RP + 3 HA -> [U][B]100% chance [big stuff up this one!] <<<<<<<<[/B][/U] England won [U][B]62 5[/B][/U] v Wales Twickenham [B]4 Aug 2007[/B] - England ahead 2.73 RP + 3 HA -> 79% chance England [B][U] lost[/U][/B] 18 27 v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]17 Mar 2007[/B] - England ahead 3.44 RP - 3 HA ->[U][B] 52% chance [wrong by 2pp][/B][/U] England won [U][B]47 13[/B][/U] v Wales Twickenham [B]4 Feb 2006[/B] - England ahead 0.73 RP + 3 HA -> 69% chance England [B][U] lost[/U][/B] 9 11 v Wales Millennium Stadium [B]5 Feb 2005[/B] - England ahead 9.68 RP - 3 HA -> [U][B]83% chance [wrong by 33pp][/B][/U] England won 31 21 v Wales Twickenham [B]20 Mar 2004[/B] - England ahead 15.78 RP + 3 HA -> 100% chance England won 28 17 v Wales Brisbane [B]9 Nov 2003[/B] - England ahead 13.32 RP + 0 HA -> 100% chance Of all 24 games, if you had flipped a coin you would be right 12/24 times, if you had bet on England every time you would be right 14/24 times, if you had bet on the home team every game, you would be right 16/23 times, if you had bet on the WRR favoured team, you would be right 17/24 times. More importantly, the calibration: [LIST] [*]England had an 80-100% implied chance 7 times. You would expect them to win ~90% (i.e. 6.3) of them, they won 5. [*]They had a 60-79% implied chance 8 times. You would expect them to win ~70% (i.e. 5.6) of them, they won 6. [*]They had a 40-59% implied chance 6 times. You would expect them to win ~50% (i.e. 3.0) of them, they won 3. [*]They had a 20-39% implied chance 3 times. You would expect them to win ~30% (i.e. 0.9) of them, they won 0. [/LIST] The only time the rankings look less than perfect, is in that 2008 game. So... what happened on 2 Feb 2008? :confused: [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Rugby Union
Rugby World Cup 2023
Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
Top