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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 962921" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Uruguay got their consolation try vs Georgia, which on it's own would have made their world cup campaign moderately successful. But their chance of 3rd in Pool / AQ RWC2023 is now 0%.</p><p>Georgia slightly improve their chances of progressing - their median projection is now 3rd in Pool (53%), their whisker is just shy of getting a QF (2.2%), and their chance of a SF is up to 0.1%</p><p>Wales' Lower Quartile projection is now in the Semi-Final region (83%) and they're 98.6% to top Pool D.</p><div style="margin-left: 20px">This is despite a downgrade to their projected strength because the win over Australia wasn't as convincing as expected.</div><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7525[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]7526[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p></p><p>For comparison: How it stood before the start of the tournament: (below)</p><p>Excuse the inconsistent colours</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7527[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]7528[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Likely QF match-ups: as of this morning (& as of before tournament)</p><p>QF1</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">56% New Zealand vs Ireland (6.0%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">25% New Zealand vs Scotland (31%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">18% New Zealand vs Japan (23%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">0.2% New Zealand vs Samoa (0.2%)</li> </ul><p>QF2</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">88% England vs Australia (51%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">7.5% France vs Australia (4.0%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2.0% England vs Georgia (1.6%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">1.2% England vs Wales (27%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">0.8% Argentina vs Australia (0.6%)</li> </ul><p>QF3</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">74% Wales vs France (42%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">13% Wales vs Argentina (16%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">7.5% Wales vs England (5.5%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">4.0% Wales vs USA (3.0%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">1.0% Australia vs France (18%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">0.3% Wales vs Tonga (2.2%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">0.2% Australia vs Argentina (7.5%)</li> </ul><p>QF4</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">56% Japan vs South Africa (2.5%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">44% Ireland vs South Africa (53%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">0.2% Ireland vs Italy (0.2%)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">0.2% Japan vs Italy ( - )</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 962921, member: 73940"] Uruguay got their consolation try vs Georgia, which on it's own would have made their world cup campaign moderately successful. But their chance of 3rd in Pool / AQ RWC2023 is now 0%. Georgia slightly improve their chances of progressing - their median projection is now 3rd in Pool (53%), their whisker is just shy of getting a QF (2.2%), and their chance of a SF is up to 0.1% Wales' Lower Quartile projection is now in the Semi-Final region (83%) and they're 98.6% to top Pool D. [INDENT]This is despite a downgrade to their projected strength because the win over Australia wasn't as convincing as expected.[/INDENT] [ATTACH=full]7525[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]7526[/ATTACH] For comparison: How it stood before the start of the tournament: (below) Excuse the inconsistent colours [ATTACH=full]7527[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]7528[/ATTACH] Likely QF match-ups: as of this morning (& as of before tournament) QF1 [LIST] [*]56% New Zealand vs Ireland (6.0%) [*]25% New Zealand vs Scotland (31%) [*]18% New Zealand vs Japan (23%) [*]0.2% New Zealand vs Samoa (0.2%) [/LIST] QF2 [LIST] [*]88% England vs Australia (51%) [*]7.5% France vs Australia (4.0%) [*]2.0% England vs Georgia (1.6%) [*]1.2% England vs Wales (27%) [*]0.8% Argentina vs Australia (0.6%) [/LIST] QF3 [LIST] [*]74% Wales vs France (42%) [*]13% Wales vs Argentina (16%) [*]7.5% Wales vs England (5.5%) [*]4.0% Wales vs USA (3.0%) [*]1.0% Australia vs France (18%) [*]0.3% Wales vs Tonga (2.2%) [*]0.2% Australia vs Argentina (7.5%) [/LIST] QF4 [LIST] [*]56% Japan vs South Africa (2.5%) [*]44% Ireland vs South Africa (53%) [*]0.2% Ireland vs Italy (0.2%) [*]0.2% Japan vs Italy ( - ) [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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