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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 963175" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>I want to show some perspective on the upsets that have happened so far...</p><p>projected likelihood calculated before the RWC, of the outcomes that eventually occurred:</p><p></p><p>Match 1: Japan vs Russia</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Japan to win: 99.7%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Japan BP win: 99.2%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Russia loss w/o BP: 99.4%</li> </ul><p>Match 2: Australia vs Fiji</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Australia to win: 81%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Australia BP win: 63%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Fiji loss w/o BP: 69%</li> </ul><p>Match 3: France vs Argentina</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">France to win: 67%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">France to not get BP win: 61%<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Argentina to get at least a losing BP: 53%</li> </ul><p>Match 4: New Zealand vs South Africa</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">New Zealand to win: 59%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">New Zealand to not get BP win: 71%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>South Africa loss w/o BP: 37% (Level 0 upset)</strong></li> </ul><p>Match 5: Italy vs Namibia</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Italy to win: 96.0%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Italy BP win: 91.0%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Namibia loss w/o BP: 93.0%</li> </ul><p>Match 6: Ireland vs Scotland</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Ireland to win: 89%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Ireland BP win: 77%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scotland loss w/o BP: 81%</li> </ul><p>Match 7: England vs Tonga</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">England to win: 100%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">England BP win: >99.9%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Tonga loss w/o BP: 100%</li> </ul><p>Match 8: Wales vs Georgia</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Wales to win: 99.4%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Wales BP win: 98.4%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Georgia loss w/o BP: 98.8%</li> </ul><p>Match 9: Russia vs Samoa</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Samoa to win: 70%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Samoa BP win: 44% (Level 0 upset)</strong></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Russia loss w/o BP: 52%</li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Match 10: Fiji vs Uruguay</strong></span></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Uruguay to win: 2.2% (Level 3 upset)</strong></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Uruguay to get at least a losing BP: 4.5% (Level 2 upset)</strong></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Fiji to not get BP win: 5.0% (Level 2 upset)</strong></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><strong>Uruguay to win a game at RWC 2019: 13% (Level 1 upset)</strong></em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><strong>Uruguay to earn a table point at RWC 2019: 24% (Level 1 upset)</strong></em></li> </ul><p>Match 11: Italy vs Canada</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Italy to win: 96.0%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Italy BP win: 91.0%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Canada loss w/o BP: 92.5%</li> </ul><p>Match 12: England vs USA</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">England to win: 99.9%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">England BP win: 99.8%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">USA loss w/o BP: 99.8%</li> </ul><p>Match 13: Argentina vs Tonga</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Argentina to win: 75%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Argentina BP win: 50%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Tonga loss w/o BP: 59%</li> </ul><p><strong>Match 14: Japan vs Ireland</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Japan to win: 6.0% (Level 2 upset)</strong></span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Japan to get at least a losing BP: 12% (Level 1 upset)</strong></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Ireland to not get BP win: 15% (Level 1 upset)</strong></li> </ul><p>Match 15: South Africa vs Namibia</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">South Africa to win: 100%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">South Africa BP win: 100%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Namibia loss w/o BP: 100%</li> </ul><p>Match 16: Georgia vs Uruguay</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Georgia to win: 88%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Georgia BP win: 74%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Uruguay loss w/o BP: 79%</li> </ul><p>Match 17: Australia vs Wales</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Wales to win: 65%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Wales to not get BP win: 62%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Australia to get at least a losing BP: 55%</li> </ul><p>Match 18: Scotland vs Samoa</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scotland to win: 97.5%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Scotland BP win: 94.0%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Samoa loss w/o BP: 95.5%</li> </ul><p>The Brighton mirale, Japan vs South Africa in 2015, would have been about 1.2% - a level 3 upset.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">Level 0 is 25% - 49%, level 1 is 10% - 24%, level 2 is 2.5% - 9.5%, level 3 is 0.5% - 2.2%. Level 4 would be <0.1% - 0.4%, and 0% would be level 5.</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 963175, member: 73940"] I want to show some perspective on the upsets that have happened so far... projected likelihood calculated before the RWC, of the outcomes that eventually occurred: Match 1: Japan vs Russia [LIST] [*]Japan to win: 99.7% [*]Japan BP win: 99.2% [*]Russia loss w/o BP: 99.4% [/LIST] Match 2: Australia vs Fiji [LIST] [*]Australia to win: 81% [*]Australia BP win: 63% [*]Fiji loss w/o BP: 69% [/LIST] Match 3: France vs Argentina [LIST] [*]France to win: 67% [*]France to not get BP win: 61% [*]Argentina to get at least a losing BP: 53% [/LIST] Match 4: New Zealand vs South Africa [LIST] [*]New Zealand to win: 59% [*]New Zealand to not get BP win: 71% [*][B]South Africa loss w/o BP: 37% (Level 0 upset)[/B] [/LIST] Match 5: Italy vs Namibia [LIST] [*]Italy to win: 96.0% [*]Italy BP win: 91.0% [*]Namibia loss w/o BP: 93.0% [/LIST] Match 6: Ireland vs Scotland [LIST] [*]Ireland to win: 89% [*]Ireland BP win: 77% [*]Scotland loss w/o BP: 81% [/LIST] Match 7: England vs Tonga [LIST] [*]England to win: 100% [*]England BP win: >99.9% [*]Tonga loss w/o BP: 100% [/LIST] Match 8: Wales vs Georgia [LIST] [*]Wales to win: 99.4% [*]Wales BP win: 98.4% [*]Georgia loss w/o BP: 98.8% [/LIST] Match 9: Russia vs Samoa [LIST] [*]Samoa to win: 70% [*][B]Samoa BP win: 44% (Level 0 upset)[/B] [*]Russia loss w/o BP: 52% [/LIST] [SIZE=5][B]Match 10: Fiji vs Uruguay[/B][/SIZE] [LIST] [*][SIZE=5][B]Uruguay to win: 2.2% (Level 3 upset)[/B][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=5][B]Uruguay to get at least a losing BP: 4.5% (Level 2 upset)[/B][/SIZE] [*][SIZE=5][B]Fiji to not get BP win: 5.0% (Level 2 upset)[/B][/SIZE] [*][I][B]Uruguay to win a game at RWC 2019: 13% (Level 1 upset)[/B][/I] [*][I][B]Uruguay to earn a table point at RWC 2019: 24% (Level 1 upset)[/B][/I] [/LIST] Match 11: Italy vs Canada [LIST] [*]Italy to win: 96.0% [*]Italy BP win: 91.0% [*]Canada loss w/o BP: 92.5% [/LIST] Match 12: England vs USA [LIST] [*]England to win: 99.9% [*]England BP win: 99.8% [*]USA loss w/o BP: 99.8% [/LIST] Match 13: Argentina vs Tonga [LIST] [*]Argentina to win: 75% [*]Argentina BP win: 50% [*]Tonga loss w/o BP: 59% [/LIST] [B]Match 14: Japan vs Ireland[/B] [LIST] [*][SIZE=5][B]Japan to win: 6.0% (Level 2 upset)[/B][/SIZE] [*][B]Japan to get at least a losing BP: 12% (Level 1 upset)[/B] [*][B]Ireland to not get BP win: 15% (Level 1 upset)[/B] [/LIST] Match 15: South Africa vs Namibia [LIST] [*]South Africa to win: 100% [*]South Africa BP win: 100% [*]Namibia loss w/o BP: 100% [/LIST] Match 16: Georgia vs Uruguay [LIST] [*]Georgia to win: 88% [*]Georgia BP win: 74% [*]Uruguay loss w/o BP: 79% [/LIST] Match 17: Australia vs Wales [LIST] [*]Wales to win: 65% [*]Wales to not get BP win: 62% [*]Australia to get at least a losing BP: 55% [/LIST] Match 18: Scotland vs Samoa [LIST] [*]Scotland to win: 97.5% [*]Scotland BP win: 94.0% [*]Samoa loss w/o BP: 95.5% [/LIST] The Brighton mirale, Japan vs South Africa in 2015, would have been about 1.2% - a level 3 upset. [SIZE=2]Level 0 is 25% - 49%, level 1 is 10% - 24%, level 2 is 2.5% - 9.5%, level 3 is 0.5% - 2.2%. Level 4 would be <0.1% - 0.4%, and 0% would be level 5.[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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