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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 963784" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>[<a href="https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-28#post-962921" target="_blank">link to previous update</a>]</p><p></p><p>Russia becomes the first team to be mathematically eliminated. England and Italy have qualified for RWC 2023.</p><p>While not yet mathematically eliminated, USA and Georgia now join Samoa, Namibia, Canada, Fiji and Uruguay in having a 0% chance of progressing.</p><p></p><p>Ireland, New Zealand, Australia and Wales will 100% qualify for QFs. (though they haven't yet)</p><p>South Africa, England and France are all at least 94.5%.</p><p></p><p>Japan and Scotland are competing for the last spot, and it will most likely come down to the very last pool match.</p><p></p><p>Tonga is down to 0.1% - to progress, they need a bonus point win over France (1.4%) and the USA (15%), and even then it's only a maybe. They are 0% to progress beyond a QF.</p><p>Italy is down to 0.4% - they need a win tonight. They are <0.1% to win a QF and come 4th.</p><p>Argentina still have 6.0% chance of progressing. There are two paths - beat England (4.0%), or for Tonga to beat France (7.0%)</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7567[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]7568[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7569[/ATTACH]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 963784, member: 73940"] [[URL='https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-28#post-962921']link to previous update[/URL]] Russia becomes the first team to be mathematically eliminated. England and Italy have qualified for RWC 2023. While not yet mathematically eliminated, USA and Georgia now join Samoa, Namibia, Canada, Fiji and Uruguay in having a 0% chance of progressing. Ireland, New Zealand, Australia and Wales will 100% qualify for QFs. (though they haven't yet) South Africa, England and France are all at least 94.5%. Japan and Scotland are competing for the last spot, and it will most likely come down to the very last pool match. Tonga is down to 0.1% - to progress, they need a bonus point win over France (1.4%) and the USA (15%), and even then it's only a maybe. They are 0% to progress beyond a QF. Italy is down to 0.4% - they need a win tonight. They are <0.1% to win a QF and come 4th. Argentina still have 6.0% chance of progressing. There are two paths - beat England (4.0%), or for Tonga to beat France (7.0%) [ATTACH=full]7567[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]7568[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]7569[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]
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