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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 971870" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>Good Question. Stuff has South Africa as clear (albeit slight) underdogs, and I can't speak for them... but as for my model, looking at the RP in the box & whisker chart, South Africa is actually ahead 0.16 RP, so should be 50.8% to win.</p><p>Projections from 10,000 simulations are going to have a bit of sampling error, and since it's basically 50:50 I didn't think too much of it. But on closer inspection something didn't update properly for the RP gained in the QFs. So correcting for that, South Africa gains slightly more than Wales did because Japan is rated as a tougher opponent, and...</p><p></p><p>Your appeal to the ref was successful! <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite7" alt=":p" title="Stick Out Tongue :p" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":p" /> So now it looks like this:</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7733[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]7734[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]7735[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Wales vs South Africa is still close enough that the median scenario goes into extra time.</p><p></p><p>Sorry for the confusion!</p><p></p><p>As for why South Africa and Wales are so close... well their WR Rankings Points before the world cup were only 0.02 apart! These 2 teams have been 50:50 the whole way through.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 971870, member: 73940"] Good Question. Stuff has South Africa as clear (albeit slight) underdogs, and I can't speak for them... but as for my model, looking at the RP in the box & whisker chart, South Africa is actually ahead 0.16 RP, so should be 50.8% to win. Projections from 10,000 simulations are going to have a bit of sampling error, and since it's basically 50:50 I didn't think too much of it. But on closer inspection something didn't update properly for the RP gained in the QFs. So correcting for that, South Africa gains slightly more than Wales did because Japan is rated as a tougher opponent, and... Your appeal to the ref was successful! :p So now it looks like this: [ATTACH=full]7733[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]7734[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]7735[/ATTACH] Wales vs South Africa is still close enough that the median scenario goes into extra time. Sorry for the confusion! As for why South Africa and Wales are so close... well their WR Rankings Points before the world cup were only 0.02 apart! These 2 teams have been 50:50 the whole way through. [/QUOTE]
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