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Rugby Union
Tier Two & Three Rugby
Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 911152" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Update: </strong></span></p><p>Cook Islands (55) are eliminated, Hong Kong (21) qualify for the Repechage Tournament, Uganda/Zimbabwe/Morocco are out of contention for Africa 1.</p><p>Uganda miss their big chance. Namibia and Kenya are now massive favourites - There is now only a 2.2% chance of an upset in African qualifying.</p><p></p><p>Germany vs Samoa is this weekend, <span style="font-size: 10px">(Germany need to make up a 51 point deficit, which they only achieve once out of all the 10,000 simulations)</span>, African qualifying now takes a break until August 4, <span style="font-size: 10px">(7 games remaining)</span>, and that is all the qualifying left until the Repechage Tournament in November.</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>17 - 17 countries had guaranteed spaces in the final 23:</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-13)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 14)<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">16 - Samoa (17) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Germany, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">17 - Canada (22) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>21 - 4 countries have earned* spaces in the final 23:</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">18 - Uruguay (18) earned the Final 23 spot for the Americas, and qualified directly as Americas 2</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">19 - Russia (19) qualified directly as Europe 1</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">20 - Germany (29) earned* the Europe 2 spot, and can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">21 - Hong Kong (21) earned the Asia 1/Oceania 4 Play-Off Winner spot, and will go to the Repechage Tournament</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>27 - 6 African countries are still competing for the last 2 spaces in the Final 23:</strong><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">23 - 3 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly as Africa 1, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. (as Africa 2).<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Namibia (23), Kenya (28), and Tunisia (40)</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">27 - Uganda (37), Zimbabwe (46), and Morocco (42) are only able to qualify via the Repechage Tournament. (as Africa 2)</li> </ul></li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">63 countries eliminated - Including Romania (16), Spain (20) and Portugal (24).</li> </ul><p><span style="font-size: 9px">* - Well... I'm not sure "earned" is exactly the right word in the case of Russia and Germany</span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Projected Probabilities:</strong></span></p><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Africa 1:</strong> Namibia 82% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Kenya 18% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1, Uganda 0% -<0.1</span></p><p>Participating in the Repechage Tournament as Africa 2: Kenya 80% <span style="font-size: 10px">+3</span>, Namibia 18% <span style="font-size: 10px">-1, Tunisia 1.6% +0.6, Uganda 0.5% -3.0, Zimbabwe 0% -<0.1</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">Eliminated in the Gold Cup: Namibia 0%, Kenya 2.2%, Tunisia 98.4%, Uganda 99.5%, Zimbabwe 100%, Morocco 100%</span></p><p></p><p><strong>Pool B as Repechage Winner:</strong> Hong Kong 44% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Canada 37% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Germany 8.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.5</span>, Kenya 8.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">+0.5, Namibia 3.5% -0.5</span></p><p>Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Hong Kong 30% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Germany 17% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Kenya 16% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Namibia 5.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC, Tunisia <0.1%, Uganda 0%</span></p><p></p><p><strong>to any Pool (3):</strong> Samoa 100%, Namibia 85% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Hong Kong 44% <span style="font-size: 10px">+1</span>, Canada 37% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Kenya 26% <span style="font-size: 10px">NC</span>, Germany 8.0% <span style="font-size: 10px">-0.5, Uganda 0% -<0.1</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 911152, member: 73940"] [SIZE=5][B]Update: [/B][/SIZE] Cook Islands (55) are eliminated, Hong Kong (21) qualify for the Repechage Tournament, Uganda/Zimbabwe/Morocco are out of contention for Africa 1. Uganda miss their big chance. Namibia and Kenya are now massive favourites - There is now only a 2.2% chance of an upset in African qualifying. Germany vs Samoa is this weekend, [SIZE=2](Germany need to make up a 51 point deficit, which they only achieve once out of all the 10,000 simulations)[/SIZE], African qualifying now takes a break until August 4, [SIZE=2](7 games remaining)[/SIZE], and that is all the qualifying left until the Repechage Tournament in November. [LIST] [*][B]17 - 17 countries had guaranteed spaces in the final 23:[/B] [LIST] [*]12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-13) [*]15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 15, 9, 14) [*]16 - Samoa (17) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Germany, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament [*]17 - Canada (22) failed direct qualification, so will be at the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*][B]21 - 4 countries have earned* spaces in the final 23:[/B] [LIST] [*]18 - Uruguay (18) earned the Final 23 spot for the Americas, and qualified directly as Americas 2 [*]19 - Russia (19) qualified directly as Europe 1 [*]20 - Germany (29) earned* the Europe 2 spot, and can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa, or the Repechage Tournament [*]21 - Hong Kong (21) earned the Asia 1/Oceania 4 Play-Off Winner spot, and will go to the Repechage Tournament [/LIST] [*][B]27 - 6 African countries are still competing for the last 2 spaces in the Final 23:[/B] [LIST] [*]23 - 3 countries from Africa are still able to qualify directly as Africa 1, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as a Plan B. (as Africa 2). [LIST] [*]Namibia (23), Kenya (28), and Tunisia (40) [/LIST] [*]27 - Uganda (37), Zimbabwe (46), and Morocco (42) are only able to qualify via the Repechage Tournament. (as Africa 2) [/LIST] [/LIST] [LIST] [*]63 countries eliminated - Including Romania (16), Spain (20) and Portugal (24). [/LIST] [SIZE=1]* - Well... I'm not sure "earned" is exactly the right word in the case of Russia and Germany[/SIZE] [SIZE=5][B]Projected Probabilities:[/B][/SIZE] [B]Pool B as Africa 1:[/B] Namibia 82% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Kenya 18% [SIZE=2]-1, Uganda 0% -<0.1[/SIZE] Participating in the Repechage Tournament as Africa 2: Kenya 80% [SIZE=2]+3[/SIZE], Namibia 18% [SIZE=2]-1, Tunisia 1.6% +0.6, Uganda 0.5% -3.0, Zimbabwe 0% -<0.1 Eliminated in the Gold Cup: Namibia 0%, Kenya 2.2%, Tunisia 98.4%, Uganda 99.5%, Zimbabwe 100%, Morocco 100%[/SIZE] [B]Pool B as Repechage Winner:[/B] Hong Kong 44% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Canada 37% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Germany 8.0% [SIZE=2]-0.5[/SIZE], Kenya 8.0% [SIZE=2]+0.5, Namibia 3.5% -0.5[/SIZE] Repechage Runner-Up: Canada 32% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Hong Kong 30% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Germany 17% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Kenya 16% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Namibia 5.0% [SIZE=2]NC, Tunisia <0.1%, Uganda 0%[/SIZE] [B]to any Pool (3):[/B] Samoa 100%, Namibia 85% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Hong Kong 44% [SIZE=2]+1[/SIZE], Canada 37% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Kenya 26% [SIZE=2]NC[/SIZE], Germany 8.0% [SIZE=2]-0.5, Uganda 0% -<0.1[/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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