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<blockquote data-quote="BPM" data-source="post: 1116670" data-attributes="member: 59968"><p>Another punchy prediction, but it's certainly fair to say that it'll be significantly harder for NZ or SA to make the semis than it will for Australia or Argentina.</p><p></p><p>From a NH POV, England and Wales simply aren't on the same level as France or Ireland right now and while I expect Borthwick and Gatland to oversee decent improvement a) they're starting from a very low base and b) there is a gulf in class and that gap isn't going to be bridged in 8mths.</p><p></p><p>In terms of Australia, I thought Rennie was treated poorly. IMO, they are a lot better side than their recent results suggest and he was dealt a very tricky hand on the injury front. Eddie usually does a lot of his best work early on which will definitely help, but I'd also argue think picking up an Aussie side in better shape than the England side he left behind. Borthwick has a full on rebuild on his hands (more in terms of tactics than personnel), whereas Eddie is probably in a position where small tweaks and a bit of luck on the injury front, will pay dividends. I think they should win their group by the third pool game (Wales) which gives them a good chance to rest players against Portugal ahead of the QF.</p><p></p><p>The 6N will be interesting for England. I expect a bit of a 'dead cat bounce' but not to the extent where we really test Ireland or France. Back to basics is probably the key thing and if Borthwick and co can sort out our set piece game and simplify our structures in attack and defence, that could lead to a significant improvement. Again, I think Eddie had us playing so badly that I'd hope we're now on an upward curve even if it's not stellar. If he uses the next 8 months well and makes some tough decisions, I think he can make us hard to beat and win the pool. Fixtures are nicely set up too with the harder games first which potentially gives a bit of an opportunity to rest key players ahead of a QF. If we do end up with Wales, it's an opponent we know well and know we can beat. The element of doubt for me is that Gatland knows he can win big knock out games at RWC. Borthwick won't have that experience to draw upon.</p><p></p><p>For Wales, quite a bit of the same logic applies. I think Gatland will sort them out quickly and make them a tougher nut to crack. However, unlike England or Australia, I don't think they have the quality of players/depth which counts for a lot in a tournament setting. While I wouldn't entirely dismiss England losing to Japan or Samoa, I'd see a higher chance of Wales losing to Fiji or Georgia (again) which probably means they have less opportunity to rest their front line players. The fixtures help them out a bit there with Portugal in between the Fiji and Australia games, but the final pool game vs. Georgia could be a banana skin, particularly if they need a win.</p><p></p><p>Scotland could be an interesting opponent in pool B. SA and Ireland can't take them too lightly in what will be a tough group.</p><p></p><p>If I had to call the knock-outs now, I'd go with:</p><p></p><p>QF1: <strong>Australia</strong> vs. Argentina</p><p>QF2: <strong>NZ</strong> vs. Ireland</p><p>QF3: <strong>England</strong> vs. Wales</p><p>QF4: <strong>France</strong> vs. SA</p><p></p><p>SF1: Australia vs. <strong>NZ</strong></p><p>SF2: England vs. <strong>France</strong></p><p></p><p>Final: NZ vs. <strong>France</strong></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BPM, post: 1116670, member: 59968"] Another punchy prediction, but it’s certainly fair to say that it’ll be significantly harder for NZ or SA to make the semis than it will for Australia or Argentina. From a NH POV, England and Wales simply aren’t on the same level as France or Ireland right now and while I expect Borthwick and Gatland to oversee decent improvement a) they’re starting from a very low base and b) there is a gulf in class and that gap isn’t going to be bridged in 8mths. In terms of Australia, I thought Rennie was treated poorly. IMO, they are a lot better side than their recent results suggest and he was dealt a very tricky hand on the injury front. Eddie usually does a lot of his best work early on which will definitely help, but I’d also argue think picking up an Aussie side in better shape than the England side he left behind. Borthwick has a full on rebuild on his hands (more in terms of tactics than personnel), whereas Eddie is probably in a position where small tweaks and a bit of luck on the injury front, will pay dividends. I think they should win their group by the third pool game (Wales) which gives them a good chance to rest players against Portugal ahead of the QF. The 6N will be interesting for England. I expect a bit of a ‘dead cat bounce’ but not to the extent where we really test Ireland or France. Back to basics is probably the key thing and if Borthwick and co can sort out our set piece game and simplify our structures in attack and defence, that could lead to a significant improvement. Again, I think Eddie had us playing so badly that I’d hope we’re now on an upward curve even if it’s not stellar. If he uses the next 8 months well and makes some tough decisions, I think he can make us hard to beat and win the pool. Fixtures are nicely set up too with the harder games first which potentially gives a bit of an opportunity to rest key players ahead of a QF. If we do end up with Wales, it’s an opponent we know well and know we can beat. The element of doubt for me is that Gatland knows he can win big knock out games at RWC. Borthwick won’t have that experience to draw upon. For Wales, quite a bit of the same logic applies. I think Gatland will sort them out quickly and make them a tougher nut to crack. However, unlike England or Australia, I don’t think they have the quality of players/depth which counts for a lot in a tournament setting. While I wouldn’t entirely dismiss England losing to Japan or Samoa, I’d see a higher chance of Wales losing to Fiji or Georgia (again) which probably means they have less opportunity to rest their front line players. The fixtures help them out a bit there with Portugal in between the Fiji and Australia games, but the final pool game vs. Georgia could be a banana skin, particularly if they need a win. Scotland could be an interesting opponent in pool B. SA and Ireland can’t take them too lightly in what will be a tough group. If I had to call the knock-outs now, I’d go with: QF1: [B]Australia[/B] vs. Argentina QF2: [B]NZ[/B] vs. Ireland QF3: [B]England[/B] vs. Wales QF4: [B]France[/B] vs. SA SF1: Australia vs. [B]NZ[/B] SF2: England vs. [B]France[/B] Final: NZ vs. [B]France[/B] [/QUOTE]
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