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Goodey

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Happy new year, here's a graph. Implied probability from bookies' odds.

1641100233419

- A lot of people like France huh.
- England above SA is probably due to the draw. Also Argentina above Scotland.
- It's nice no one has more than a 25% chance, there have been recent world cups where NZ v the field is a close to even bet. That said, I expect the All Blacks' odds to improve in two years when they presumably won't have just lost two tests in a row.
- The small slices there are Scotland (navy), Japan (pink) and Fiji (grey). Everyone else is 0.1% or less.
 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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Looks like you might get fair odds for England and Ireland, and potentially good odds for the Boks and reigning 6N champs Wales. At first glance it seems a little bit mad to have 48% combined favouring NZ and France but I suppose they are guaranteed a restful passage to the QFSs so they must end up on opposite sides of the draw if they make it to the semis? If so, it isn't completely illogical.
 

unrated

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Strange things have happened in a world cup, I won't be surprised at all if France doesn't make it out of their group.

We will have a better idea of prospects after this year's International fixtures. Boks to play New Zealand, England, France, Wales and Australia this year, that's pretty much all the big names mentioned to win the Cup in one year.

Looking forward to seeing what France is all about vs a known reference point.

I wonder about the England game though, reports stated that it's outside the window which means we will only be able to play our local players.
But if we will not be able to call our South African players playing in the premiership then what about England? Will their clubs release the English players outside the window but not the South African ones? I just can't see England fielding a full team if they cant use their premiership players. So this scenario is likely to happen.
 

unrated

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I know it has been said but the Scotland, Ireland, South Africa group that needs to face the All Blacks or France in the quarters really have it tough.

I recon, that if any of these teams make it past that challenge and go on to the semi's then their chances are very very strong considering the other side of the draw will be the weaker one.

The axis of NZ, France, Ireland, Scotland and South Africa will have been battle hardened and must have done really well to progress.
 

Le Frére Alpha

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I know it has been said but the Scotland, Ireland, South Africa group that needs to face the All Blacks or France in the quarters really have it tough.

I recon, that if any of these teams make it past that challenge and go on to the semi's then their chances are very very strong considering the other side of the draw will be the weaker one.

The axis of NZ, France, Ireland, Scotland and South Africa will have been battle hardened and must have done really well to progress.
Yeah I think whoever gets through from this side and gets the easier semi takes it home. One of the other side of the draw will show up strong, probably England maybe Oz, but I can't see Argentina or Wales posing massive massive problems.

Our game is definitely more important to us than it is to you considering we have Scotland the week before the quarters, if we can be through before that game and rest Sexton or get him off early as well as anyone who has picked up small injuries I'd give us a punchers chance. (a puncher without fists as it's Ireland in a QF but look, has to end sometime)

I don't think Scotland have a prayer to be honest, even in our most exceptionally poor world cup after 2007 they couldn't lay a hand on us. It'll be 7 years without a win against us and 13 against you for them come next Autumn.
 

unrated

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Yeah I think whoever gets through from this side and gets the easier semi takes it home. One of the other side of the draw will show up strong, probably England maybe Oz, but I can't see Argentina or Wales posing massive massive problems.

Our game is definitely more important to us than it is to you considering we have Scotland the week before the quarters, if we can be through before that game and rest Sexton or get him off early as well as anyone who has picked up small injuries I'd give us a punchers chance. (a puncher without fists as it's Ireland in a QF but look, has to end sometime)

I don't think Scotland have a prayer to be honest, even in our most exceptionally poor world cup after 2007 they couldn't lay a hand on us. It'll be 7 years without a win against us and 13 against you for them come next Autumn.
All things come to an end, maybe its the Irish QF curse or Scotland showing up at a major International tournament

Additionally, this is not the same calibre of Scottish team as the one 13 years ago. I think they are at a highpoint now.
 

The Oggmonster

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All things come to an end, maybe its the Irish QF curse or Scotland showing up at a major International tournament

Additionally, this is not the same calibre of Scottish team as the one 13 years ago. I think they are at a highpoint now.

Unfortunately it'll be another group exit for the Scots next year thanks to World Rugby who locked in the seedings way too early while Scotland were 9th and Japan were 8th. Perhaps it was payback for Dodson's comments about the rumoured match cancellation due to the hurricane in Japan. It's also a pity that two of NZ, SA, France and Ireland will exit at the QF stage. Those four would have made a great semi final line up.
 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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Americas 1 and Americas 2? What does this mean?
Americas 1 is Uruguay, the top qualifier from the Americas (the winner of the playoff final between Uruguay and the US).

Americas 2 will be the winner of the forthcoming playoff between Chile and the US. The loser will go into the international repechage tournament and could end up in Pool C as the "qualifier winner".

Argentina skip qualifying by having finished third or better in their group at the last RWC.
 

Goodey

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Happy new year, here's a graph. Implied probability from bookies' odds.

View attachment 12866

- A lot of people like France huh.
- England above SA is probably due to the draw. Also Argentina above Scotland.
- It's nice no one has more than a 25% chance, there have been recent world cups where NZ v the field is a close to even bet. That said, I expect the All Blacks' odds to improve in two years when they presumably won't have just lost two tests in a row.
- The small slices there are Scotland (navy), Japan (pink) and Fiji (grey). Everyone else is 0.1% or less.
Post-Six Nations update: France are favourites now.

1648991405048
 

Al Bangor

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It's Official - Rugby World Cup is coming to the USA in 2031 & 2033. Just wanted to share the good news. I hope you all can make it when the time comes. :cool:
1652377027605
 
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