Where things are up to now:
Direct Qualification 一 Repechage 一一 Countries Still Competing
- Africa 2 一 一 一 Africa 3 一一一 8 remaining
- Americas 2 & 3 - Americas 4 一一 4 remaining - USA (16), Uruguay (17), Canada (22), Chile (28)
- 一一一一一一 一 Asia 2 一一一一 3 remaining
- Europe 7 & 8 一 Europe 9 一一一 6 remaining
- Samoa (13) 一一 Tonga (15)
I mostly track who qualifies for the "
Final 23", i.e.
either RWC 2023
or the final repechage tournament in November 2022.
- Africa AD 1 --------- 2022 TBD ------------- (Namibia 25) ---------- ---------- winner of Namibia (25) vs Burkina Faso (91) plays winner of Zimbabwe (34) vs Ivory Coast (40)
- Africa BC 1 ----------2022 TBD ------------- (Kenya 35) ------------------------ winner of Kenya (35) vs Uganda (51) plays winner of Senegal (44) vs Algeria (90)
- South America 2 ------------------------------- Uruguay (17)
- North America 1 - Sept 4 & Sept 11 --- (USA 16) ---------------- -----------winner of USA (16) vs Canada (22) H&A
- Americas X --------- TBD ---------- ----------- (Canada 22) ---------------------- winner of North America 2 vs Chile (28) H&A
- Asia 2 ----------------- 2022 Jan -------------- (Hong Kong 21) ----- ----------- winner of the "2020" Asia Rugby Championship Tri-Nations - Hong Kong (21), Korea (31), Malaysia (50)
- Europe 7, 8 & 9 --- Nov to July 2022 - (Georgia 12, Romania 17, Russia 23?) - top 3 in the combined 2021 & 2022 table of the Rugby Europe Championship - Georgia (12), Romania (18), Portugal (19), Spain (20), Russia (23), Netherlands (24)
- Oceania 4 & 5 -----------------------------------Samoa (13), Tonga (15)
Things that happened recently:
- July 17: Samoa (13) became Oceania 4 after beating Tonga (15) "H&A" in Auckland and Hamilton
- July 24: Tonga (15) became Oceania 5 after beating Cook Islands (53) in Pukekohe
- Cook Islands (53) were eliminated
- Oceania qualifying is finished
- July 25: South America Championship finished
- Uruguay (17) became S-Am 2
- Chile (28) became S-Am 3
- Brazil (26) were eliminated
Of all the qualifying, the most interesting is Europe - The 2021 Rugby Europe Championship finished except for postponed games. Qualifying will resume in November, and finish around July 2022.
Here is where things stand:
(
my analysis here - Despite appearances, with easy games in hand it's a close 4-way race still for Europe 8 and Europe 9)
Overview of the qualification places / process: (diagram)
- 12 Countries qualify automatically based on RWC 2019 performance - 10 Tier 1 plus Japan (10) and Fiji (11)
- 6 qualify directly, including:
- Africa 2 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 一 一 winner of Africa AD 1 vs Africa BC 1
- Americas 2 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 winner of North America 1 vs South America 2 H&A
- Americas 3 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 Americas X gets to challenge the loser H&A - if history is any guide, this is likely Canada (22) vs Uruguay (17)
- 1 from an Asia-Pacific playoff
- Asia-Pacific 6 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 Asia 2 vs Pacific 5 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 一 一 一 一 likely Hong Kong (21) vs Tonga (15)
- 1 from a final repechage tournament (single round robin)
- Either Africa 3, Americas 4, Asia-Pacific 7 or Europe 9 -> the stronger sides competing here could be e.g. Uruguay (17), Romania (18), Portugal (19), Canada (22), Russia (23)
South-America 3 has new significance. They get an opportunity to challenge N-Am 2 for the "Final 23" place, and then N-Am 1 for a direct qualification place. These two places were previously reserved for USA and Canada. So for the first time,
Anyone can flunk out
before the final repechage tournament if they don't perform.
Though in practice / in probability, to make the Final 23:
- for Samoa (13)/Tonga (15) this only means beating the Cook Islands (53) - 【Already done】
- for USA (16)/Canada (22), this only means beating Chile (28) 一一一【previously they couldn't fail if they tried】
- for Namibia (25) this means beating Zimbabwe (34) and Ivory Coast (40)
- for Kenya (35) this means beating Senegal (44) and Uganda (51)
Comments on Tier 3 inclusion, COVID impacts etc. etc.
First of all, Africa's new system... It's good in terms of the Africa 2, but for the Africa 3 repechage place not so much - There is no provision for Africa 2 and Africa 3 to come from the same half of the draw - Pools A & D on one hand and Pools B & C on the other. In practice and probability, this means e.g. Zimbabwe (34)
(and Tunisia (39) before they withdrew) would
have to beat Namibia (25), as opposed to competing with Kenya (35) etc. for silver.
Compared to normal, due to COVID there are fewer competitions and many low-ranked countries had no opportunity to compete. OTOH, Rugby Africa has been doing good work and brought in a bunch of first appearances by newly minted WR members.
Eliminated by COVID: (19 countries)
- Withdrew or eliminated by defaulting a match due to COVID in their own team:
- Colombia (32)
- Tunisia (39)
- 2020 Asia Rugby Championship Division 1 (and promotion-relegation match with ARC Tri-Nations) - cancelled
- Philippines (41)
- Sri Lanks (48)
- Singapore (55)
- UAE (61)
- 2020 (and 2021) Rugby Americas North Championship - cancelled
- Mexico (42)
- Trinidad and Tobago (52)
- Cayman Islands (57)
- Guyana (58)
- Jamaica (66)
- Bermuda (67)
- St Vincent and the Grenadines (79)
- Barbados (81)
- Bahamas (101)
- 2021 Oceania Rugby Cup - cancelled
- PNG (83) - (withdrew from 2019)
- Niue (98) - (did not enter 2019, but did 2011)
- Tahiti (100) - (disqualified from 2019 due to ineligible players)
- Solomon Islands (104) - (did not enter for 2019, but did 2015)
First-time entrants - all new World Rugby members just recently added to the World Rugby Rankings at 30.00 points
- Algeria (90)
- Burkina Faso (91)
- Burundi (102)
Iran (93) and Laos (93) are also new members / new on the rankings, but they can't join RWC 2023 qualification.
(because they have to earn promotion through the Asia Rugby Championship divisions, which they aren't in a position to do in time)
Competitions - Projecting back the path to qualification for low ranked sides:
(#) of Final 23 places available to each region, excluding automatic qualifiers
- (2) Africa:
- (1) Pools A & D
- Tier 3 - 2021 Africa Cup qualifiers (3 countries)
- Tier 2 - 2021 Africa Cup (4 countries + 1 place) 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 including Namibia (25)
- Tier 1 - 2022 Africa Cup (0 countries + 4 places)
- (1) Pools B & C
- Tier 2 - 2021 Africa Cup (6 countries) 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 一 including Kenya (35)
- Tier 1 - 2022 Africa Cup (0 countries + 4 places)
- (3) America:
- (1) South America
- (Caribbean) Tier 3 -
2020 Rugby Americas North Championship (9 countries) cancelled
- Tier 2 - 2021 South American Championship qualifiers (3 countries,
1 place) - South America's tier 2 and tier 3 competitions seem to have stopped after 2018
- (1) Tier 1 - 2021 South American Championship (1 country, 2 places) 一一一一一一一一一一一一 including Uruguay (17)
- (1) 2021/09 - USA & Canada (2 countries) 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 including USA (16), Canada (22)
- (1) Playoff N-Am 2 vs S-Am 3
- (1) Asia:
- Tier 4 - 2018 Asia Rugby Championship Division 3 East & Division 3 Central (4 countries and 3 non-eligible teams)
- Tier 3 - 2018 & 2019 Asia Rugby Championships Division 2 (3 countries, 1 relegated, 2 places)
- Tier 2 - 2019 &
2020 Asia Rugby Championships Division 1 (4 countries, 1 relegated, 1 place) cancelled
- Tier 1/2 Promotion/Relegation
match (2 places) cancelled
- (1) Tier 1 - "2020" Asia Rugby Championship Tri-Nations (3 countries,
1 relegated, 1 place) 一一一一一一 including Hong Kong (21)
- (3) Europe:
- Tier 6 - 2016-17 Rugby Europe Development competition (1 country and 2 non-eligible teams)
- Tier 5 - 2016-17 & 2017-18 Rugby Europe Conference 2 (7 countries, 1 place and 2 non-eligible teams)
- Tier 4 - 2017-18 & 2018-19 Rugby Europe Conference 1 (10 countries, 2 relegated, 2 places)
- Tier 3 - 2019-20 Rugby Europe Trophy (6 countries, 1 relegated, 1 place) 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 including Germany (30)
- Tier 2/3 Promotion/Relegation match (2 places)
- (3) Tier 2 - 2020, 2021 & 2022 Rugby Europe Championships (6 countries, 1 relegated, 1 place) 一一一一 including Georgia (12), Romania (18), Portugal (19), Spain (20), Russia (23)
- (2) Pacific:
- Tier 3 -
2021 Oceania Rugby Cup (5 countries) cancelled, Cook Islands progress based on rankings (1 country)
- (1) Tier 2/3 has no promotion/relegation, just a RWC qualification playoff (2 places)
- (1) Tier 2 - 2021 Pacific Nations Cup, but with 2 legs and no Fiji (11) (2 countries, 1 relegated) 一一 一 一 Including Samoa (13), Tonga (15)
oh man, I really shouldn't start little projects like this that end up so big...
Nice qualifier win over rival Canada.
