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Tier Two & Three Rugby
RWC 2023 Qualifying
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 1050582" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 18px">Where things are up to now:</span></strong></p><p></p><p>I mostly track who qualifies for the "<em>Final 23</em>", i.e. <em>either</em> RWC 2023 <em>or</em> the final repechage tournament in November 2022.</p><p></p><p>Things that happened recently:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">July 17: Samoa (13) became Oceania 4 after beating Tonga (15) "H&A" in Auckland and Hamilton</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">July 24: Tonga (15) became Oceania 5 after beating Cook Islands (53) in Pukekohe<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Cook Islands (53) were eliminated</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Oceania qualifying is finished</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">July 25: South America Championship finished<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Uruguay (17) became S-Am 2</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Chile (28) became S-Am 3</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Brazil (26) were eliminated</li> </ul></li> </ul><p><strong>Of all the qualifying, the most interesting is Europe</strong> - The 2021 Rugby Europe Championship finished except for postponed games. Qualifying will resume in November, and finish around July 2022.</p><p></p><p>Here is where things stand:</p><p>(<a href="https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-europe-championship-2021.47644/post-1050463" target="_blank">my analysis here</a> - Despite appearances, with easy games in hand it's a close 4-way race still for Europe 8 and Europe 9)</p><p><img src="https://www.therugbyforum.com/attachments/1626622879746-png.11711/" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 18px">Overview of the qualification places / process:</span></strong> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup_qualifying#/media/File:RWC_2023_Qualifier.svg" target="_blank">(diagram)</a></p><p></p><p></p><p><u>South-America 3 has new significance</u>. They get an opportunity to challenge N-Am 2 for the "Final 23" place, and then N-Am 1 for a direct qualification place. These two places were previously reserved for USA and Canada. So for the first time, <em>Anyone</em> can flunk out <u>before</u> the final repechage tournament if they don't perform.</p><p></p><p>Though in practice / in probability, to make the Final 23:</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Comments on Tier 3 inclusion, COVID impacts etc. etc.</strong></span></p><p></p><p>First of all, Africa's new system... It's good in terms of the Africa 2, but for the Africa 3 repechage place not so much - There is no provision for Africa 2 and Africa 3 to come from the same half of the draw - Pools A & D on one hand and Pools B & C on the other. In practice and probability, this means e.g. Zimbabwe (34) <span style="font-size: 10px">(and Tunisia (39) before they withdrew)</span> would <strong>have to</strong> beat Namibia (25), as opposed to competing with Kenya (35) etc. for silver.</p><p></p><p>Compared to normal, due to COVID there are fewer competitions and many low-ranked countries had no opportunity to compete. OTOH, Rugby Africa has been doing good work and brought in a bunch of first appearances by newly minted WR members.</p><p></p><p>Eliminated by COVID: (19 countries)</p><p></p><p>First-time entrants - all new World Rugby members just recently added to the World Rugby Rankings at 30.00 points</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Algeria (90)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Burkina Faso (91)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Burundi (102)</li> </ul><p>Iran (93) and Laos (93) are also new members / new on the rankings, but they can't join RWC 2023 qualification. <span style="font-size: 10px">(because they have to earn promotion through the Asia Rugby Championship divisions, which they aren't in a position to do in time)</span></p><p></p><p><strong>Competitions - Projecting back the path to qualification for low ranked sides:</strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px">(#) of Final 23 places available to each region, excluding automatic qualifiers</span></p><p></p><p>oh man, I really shouldn't start little projects like this that end up so big...</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 1050582, member: 73940"] [B][SIZE=5]Where things are up to now:[/SIZE][/B] I mostly track who qualifies for the "[I]Final 23[/I]", i.e. [I]either[/I] RWC 2023 [I]or[/I] the final repechage tournament in November 2022. Things that happened recently: [LIST] [*]July 17: Samoa (13) became Oceania 4 after beating Tonga (15) "H&A" in Auckland and Hamilton [*]July 24: Tonga (15) became Oceania 5 after beating Cook Islands (53) in Pukekohe [LIST] [*]Cook Islands (53) were eliminated [*]Oceania qualifying is finished [/LIST] [*]July 25: South America Championship finished [LIST] [*]Uruguay (17) became S-Am 2 [*]Chile (28) became S-Am 3 [*]Brazil (26) were eliminated [/LIST] [/LIST] [B]Of all the qualifying, the most interesting is Europe[/B] - The 2021 Rugby Europe Championship finished except for postponed games. Qualifying will resume in November, and finish around July 2022. Here is where things stand: ([URL='https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-europe-championship-2021.47644/post-1050463']my analysis here[/URL] - Despite appearances, with easy games in hand it's a close 4-way race still for Europe 8 and Europe 9) [IMG]https://www.therugbyforum.com/attachments/1626622879746-png.11711/[/IMG] [B][SIZE=5]Overview of the qualification places / process:[/SIZE][/B] [URL='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup_qualifying#/media/File:RWC_2023_Qualifier.svg'](diagram)[/URL] [U]South-America 3 has new significance[/U]. They get an opportunity to challenge N-Am 2 for the "Final 23" place, and then N-Am 1 for a direct qualification place. These two places were previously reserved for USA and Canada. So for the first time, [I]Anyone[/I] can flunk out [U]before[/U] the final repechage tournament if they don't perform. Though in practice / in probability, to make the Final 23: [SIZE=5][B]Comments on Tier 3 inclusion, COVID impacts etc. etc.[/B][/SIZE] First of all, Africa's new system... It's good in terms of the Africa 2, but for the Africa 3 repechage place not so much - There is no provision for Africa 2 and Africa 3 to come from the same half of the draw - Pools A & D on one hand and Pools B & C on the other. In practice and probability, this means e.g. Zimbabwe (34) [SIZE=2](and Tunisia (39) before they withdrew)[/SIZE] would [B]have to[/B] beat Namibia (25), as opposed to competing with Kenya (35) etc. for silver. Compared to normal, due to COVID there are fewer competitions and many low-ranked countries had no opportunity to compete. OTOH, Rugby Africa has been doing good work and brought in a bunch of first appearances by newly minted WR members. Eliminated by COVID: (19 countries) First-time entrants - all new World Rugby members just recently added to the World Rugby Rankings at 30.00 points [LIST] [*]Algeria (90) [*]Burkina Faso (91) [*]Burundi (102) [/LIST] Iran (93) and Laos (93) are also new members / new on the rankings, but they can't join RWC 2023 qualification. [SIZE=2](because they have to earn promotion through the Asia Rugby Championship divisions, which they aren't in a position to do in time)[/SIZE] [B]Competitions - Projecting back the path to qualification for low ranked sides:[/B] [SIZE=2](#) of Final 23 places available to each region, excluding automatic qualifiers[/SIZE] oh man, I really shouldn't start little projects like this that end up so big... [/QUOTE]
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