Starting to get a bit more excited about the match. Again I'm not too worried about the score (as long as the AB's have more points than Japan), it is about the performance. The main things I'm looking at:
-Locks, Sam Whitelock in particular. I really rate the guy, but he's had a very quiet season. He's not the most physical player, so needs to make up for that by having a huge work-rate around the field, but I haven't really seen that yet. Personally I would have loved to have seen Boric start this match, but it seems that he only rated as the 4th lock in the squad.
- Vito at 8, Thomson at 7. Both need big games - whoever has the best game will likely start against France at number 8. Thomson probably has the hardest task, as 7 which is clearly not his best position. When he plays 7 he often tries to do too much at the breakdown, and as a result gets heavily penalized. He just needs to be a bit smarter at the breakdown and not try to turnover/slow-down the ball ever time, but rather pick the right times to do this.
- Andy Ellis. I've never rated him at international level, but he hasn't been too bad this year. I can actually see why he is picked in the squad: he gets to the breakdown fast (quicker than Cowan, and especially Weepu), and when he gets there he almost immediately passes the ball (rather than summing up the situation like Weepu/Cowan do). He may take 2-3 steps before passing (which is frustrating!), but if the AB's get quick ball at the breakdown he is very good at getting this ball quickly out to the backs, who can then take advantage of the opposition backs who haven't yet set up their defense line. This style of play is very effective if the AB's can get quick ball - if they get slow ball he is far less effective (indeed he is probably a liability) as the 2-3 steps he takes before passing means the opposition backs (who are all set up due to the slow ball) are already in the AB's back-line by the time the ball gets there. He is probably still only the third ranked halfback in the squad, but his ability to raise the tempo of the game is something that the AB's selectors may consider a big asset against teams who like to play a slower more structured game (e.g South Africa).
- Kahui/Jane/Toeava. I think Kahui and Jane are the top two ranked wings in the squad at the moment (with Toeava 3rd ranked) - they will both want strong games to confirm their spots versus France. Toeava always plays his best rugby at fullback in my opinion, and I'm hoping he will have a huge game there. He seems like a confidence player; a big game at fullback could give him huge confidence for the rest of the tournament. If he could bring his Super Rugby form into the international stage that would be great news for the AB's - he hasn't been too bad for the AB's this year, he's just made a number of little errors which he wasn't making during the Super Rugby season.
Overall I'm picking the AB's to win it pretty convincingly, by about 50 points.
Looking forward to it anyway! Can sleep some more after the final whistle.
