RWC: South Africa - Wales (11-09-2011, 20:30)

[TRF_Olyy]

Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington(11-09-2011, 20:30)

Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington
11/09/2011
20:30
Referee: Wayne Barnes (ENG)

[TABLE="class: grid"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]South Africa
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Wales
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Francois Steyn[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]James Hook[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]JP Pietersen[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]George North[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaque Fourie[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Davies[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jean de Villiers[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Jamie Roberts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bryan Habana[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]Shane Williams[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morné Steyn[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Rhys Priestland[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fourie du Preez[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Mike Phillips[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierre Spies[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Toby Faletau[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Schalk Burger[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Sam Warburton (c)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Heinrich Brussow[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Dan Lydiate[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Matfield[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Alun Wyn Jones[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danie Rossouw[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Luke Charteris[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jannie du Plessis[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Adam Jones[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Smit (c)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Huw Bennett[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tendai Mtawarira[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Paul James[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bismarck du Plessis[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Lloyd Burns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gurthö Steenkamp[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Bevington[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CJ van der Linde[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]Bradley Davies[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johann Muller[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Andy Powell[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Willem Alberts[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]Tavis Knoyle[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Francois Hougaard[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]Scott Williams[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Butch James[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]Leigh Halfpenny[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

​

 

[Me 1]

Feel really confident for this one. Come on Wales!

 

[Darwin]

I'm expecting this will be a very close match - I've even put a bet on Wales to win.

 

[JW.]

Can't see Wales winning this to be honest. SA are getting into some sort of form. SA by 10.

 

[Draggs]

Wayne Barnes... there goes the game.

Expecting this:
01 Paul James
02 Huw Bennett
03 Adam Jones
04 Alun Wyn Jones
05 Bradley Davies
06 Dan Lydiate
07 Sam Warburton
08 Ryan Jones
09 Mike Phillips
10 James Hook
11 Shane Williams
12 Jamie Roberts
13 Jonathan Davies
14 George North
15 Leigh Halfpenny

16 Lloyd Burns
17 Craig Mitchell
18 Luke Charteris
19 Andy Powell
20 Tavis Knoyle
21 Stephen Jones
22 Aled Brew

 

[JW.]

Halfpenny at fullback? How solid is he there?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Pfft, Barnes is a good referee, anyone who says otherwise is a Kiwi


Really looking forward to this match - but can see it turning into a pretty dull affair with a ton of kicking - Steyn to get at least two dropgoals
Both teams will be looking for a win over a performance, and with this being the "pool of death" will both fear a loss as Fiji and (especially) Samoa pose a real threat to both sides
I'd also expect Wellies to start at 10 as I think he's better in a tight/territory game than Hook (who could well play 12 to increase kicking options, and a bit of creativity in place of Davies)

SA by <7

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

vBookie Springboks - Cymru

vBookie added

 

[TrueSlawter]

Wayne Barnes... there goes the game.

Expecting this:
01 Paul James
02 Huw Bennett
03 Adam Jones
04 Alun Wyn Jones
05 Bradley Davies
06 Dan Lydiate
07 Sam Warburton
08 Ryan Jones
09 Mike Phillips
10 Stephen Jones
11 Shane Williams
12 James Hook
13 Jamie Roberts
14 George North
15 Leigh Halfpenny

16 Lloyd Burns
17 Craig Mitchell
18 Luke Charteris
19 Andy Powell
20 Tavis Knoyle
21 Jonathan Davies
22 Aled Brew

How I can see it going (changes in bold ofc), Would rather Knoyle over Phillips too for the faster ball Knoyle gets but we'll see. Another option would be Priestland at fullback? I can see this being close. I want Wales to win ofc but can see SA winning by a small margin (under 7 points)

 

[Darwin]

Can't see Wales winning this to be honest. SA are getting into some sort of form. SA by 10.

I'm not actually convinced that South Africa form is looking that good. They didn't even look like scoring a try against the AB's 'B' team, and though they did score plenty of points through the boot, at least half of these were due to AB's errors rather than pressure built by South Africa (I think 3 of the penalties were on the halfway mark). In addition their first-up defence wasn't that great (but their scrambling cover defence was very good). Not saying South Africa is a poor team - far from it, indeed at their best I think they could beat anyone. I just don't think they played that well despite beating the AB's by 13 points - I think they have a lot of room for improvement.

 

[King_D'Arcy]

Ah my 2 least favourite international sides. I'll enjoy seeing the loser lose but hate seeing the winner win. Bittersweet

 

[JW.]

I agree. I wasen't very clear what I meant was that they are improving their form rather fast imo. And even on that performance against the ABB should be enough to beat Wales. But I think their form is improving and the more time they get the better they'll get. Come knockout stages, they could be very good.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Complete opposite for me... My 2 fav. national teams, playing each other in their RWC opener.... Damn!

 

[Thingimubob]

This should be interesting, Wales looked good in the warm ups and I reckon they do have a chance of getting a win! It'll be tight either way, under 7 points difference to the winner I reckon. If my exploits on RWC game are anything to go by it'll either be 23 - 17 to SA or 28 - 23 to Wales

This is the team I'd start anyway:
15. Leigh Halfpenny (Byrne was awful vs Argentina, Halfpenny is solid under high ball and offers plenty in attack)
14. George North
13. Jamie Roberts
12. James Hook
11. Shane Williams
10. Stephen Jones
9. Tavis Knoyle
8. Ryan Jones
7. Sam Warburton
6. Dan Lydiate
5. Alun Wyn Jones
4. Bradley Davies
3. Adam Joes
2. Huw Bennett
1. Paul James

16. Ken Owens 17. Craig Mitchell 18. Luke Charteris 19. Toby Faletau 20. Mike Phillips 21. Jonathan Davies 22. Lee Byrne

 

[Darwin]

I agree. I wasen't very clear what I meant was that they are improving their form rather fast imo. And even on that performance against the ABB should be enough to beat Wales. But I think their form is improving and the more time they get the better they'll get. Come knockout stages, they could be very good.

Yeah I agree they are improving (getting their top team together certainly helps..), but I still think they have quite a way to go to before they are back to their best. Because they are not at their best (yet) I think Wales have quite a good chance of pulling off the upset.

 

[Thingimubob]

Yeah I agree they are improving (getting their top team together certainly helps..), but I still think they have quite a way to go to before they are back to their best. Because they are not at their best (yet) I think Wales have quite a good chance of pulling off the upset.

Agree with you there, not as if Wales haven't been improving either, and not as if we haven't run them close in recent years.

 

[dullonien]

I can't decide if we've got a good chance in this match or not. On the one hand, our warm-up games showed some promise, with a solid defense and clinical finishing a good foundation to do well. However our deficiencies at the lineout is such a massive problem, especially against SA who are so strong in this department, that I'm not sure we'll have enough ball to do anything with. If we are forced to defend as much as we did in the second England test, then we won't have a chance in hell, but if we can secure 80ish percent on our own throw, then this should be a very close game imo.

With Adam Jones fit, our scrm will hold up just fine. Alun-Wyn needs to have another game like he did against the Argies, and Bradley needs to show some of the form he showed last season. Warburton will be crucial as always, but he needs help from the two next to him. I expect Ryan Jones will be at 8, and he will graft for as long as necessary. In the backs, I'd like to see Knoyle, but I'm fairly certain Gatland will go for Phillips, and maybe rightly so, because his physicality has come in very useful against SA many times in the past. I think Gats will opt for Steve Jones at 10, shifting Hook into the centres, because he's needed there imo with Jon Davies having such a poor warm-up series. In defense, Roberts has been a monster of late, he's also been much better in attack, still missing that combination in the centre though. Byrnes lack of gametime and form is a massive blow, but Halfpenny or Priestland can fill-in nicely imo. Due to Halfpenny's lack of recent gametime, I'd personally opt for Priestland, especially after his excellent showings against England, but we'll see, I'll be happy as long as it's not Byrne, who doesn't deserve a place in the squad, let alone a stanting place. (edit, wow, enough commas there!!)

If I'm trully honest, I think SA will narrowly win, mainly due to our own undoing at the lineout. If Gatland somehow get's that sorted in time, then I genuinly think we can secure a tight victory, massive IF though judging on recent and longer term history. It really is our archillies heel, and it's crazy that it's still not sorted, one of the reasons loosing Matthew Rees was such a big blow, because at times we've looked competant lineout time with him at hooker.

 

[JW.]

I don't agree that Wales have improved that much, they beat England last game but only had the ball a couple of times in that game. England came into the Welsh 22 something stupid like 25 times. SA just don't go there that often without coming away with points, try/drop/pen whatever. I'd like Wales to win as they are a home-nation but just think SA are to clinical.

 

[Draggs]

Yeah, Gatland will probably opt for Wellies starting and Hook midfield. Shame about Gavlar's injury.
Leigh is untested at FB but a better option than Lee Byrne regardless.

Bradley needs to step it up, he started off well but has been lacking a bit over the past few matches. Alun Wyn was excellent v Argentina, we need him to stay like that to even have a chance. I was pleasently surprised with Luke Charteris in his last game; hopefully second row won't be such an issue.

Regarding Phillips v Knoyle, I'd go for Phillips. He had a good showing in both games v England and his physicality will be needed against the Boks.

As far as the SA side goes, this doesn't seem unrealistic:

01 Steenkamp
02 Smit
03 du Plessis
04 Matfield
05 Botha
06 Burger
07 Alberts
08 Spies
09 du Preez
10 M Steyn
11 Habana
12 de Villiers
13 Fourie
14 Pietersen
15 F Steyn

16 B du Plessis
17 Mtawarira
18 Rossouw/Muller
19 Louw/Rossouw
20 Hougaard
21 Lambie
22 Aplon

I have a feeling Div will go for du Plessis over Smit, which would make sense considering form, but I don't see the point of making Smit captain and benching him.
Steenkamp and Mtawarira is a tough call. Injury free, Steenkamp every time. I don't know how they see Danie Rossouw, but I'd use him as backup lock over Muller. Louw/Brussow is another tough call, can Francois play blindside?

 

[Darwin]

Given Smit is the captain I can't see him not starting (which is great news for every team that South Africa face...).

Louw can play blindside (at the Stormers he and Burger play left/right, rather than blindside/openside). I still have a feeling that Rossouw will be picked on the blindside flank though (which would be a big mistake in my opinion) - personally I'd have Brussow and Burger on the flanks.