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RWC - The A Games with Shaggy (France vs Tonga)

Getofmeland

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The A games with Shaggy – France V Tonga, Saturday 1st October, Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Pool play is coming to an end, and with Japan already completing their fixtures in pool A, France and Tonga play their final pool game in New Zealand's capital city, Wellington.While we could be forgiven for thinking that the business end of the pool has already been decided, and that France and New Zealand have already progressed through to the quarter finals, a quick look at the points table and the tournament rules, shows that there is still plenty to play for.France need to win, draw, or gain a bonus point from scoring four tries or a close loss in this match to qualify for the quarter finals. Tonga can still qualify if they win with a bonus point, and deny France any bonus points. This would mean both teams would finish with equal points, but tournament rules state that the winner of the game between the two tied teams qualifies.

This of course would be a huge ask for Tonga, but they still have a chance to finish third in the pool, and automatically qualify for the next rugby world cup, plus secure the funding from the IRB that comes with it.

Tonga currently sit at five points, just one point behind Canada in the table, so, assuming that Canada gain no points in their final match against the All Blacks, Tonga will need to at least draw the match with France, or score four tries and secure the losing bonus point, to secure the third spot.

At the time of writing this blog, the Tongan team hadn't been named, but, given that the Tongans will need four tries to either qualify for the quarter finals, or by placed third, and that they are well rested, having had nine days off since their last match, they are likely to play an expansive game, regardless of which players take the field.

I would expect that Tonga will field their top side, as they will be on the plane home anyway if they lose.

The French have made three changes to the starting fifteen that lost to the All Blacks, with William Servat replacing Dimitri Szarzewski at hooker, Raphael Lakafia replacing Louis Picamoles in the loose forwards, and Damien Traille being replaced at full back, by Maxime Medard, with Medard's wing spot, being taken by Alexia Palisson.

Interestingly, French coach Marc Lievermont has decided to persist with the experiment of playing scrum half, Morgan Parra, at fly half, leaving specialist fly half, Francios Trinh-duc on the bench.

This may mean that the Tongans will try to run at Morgan Parra, to try to exploit any perceived defensive weaknesses.

I expect this game to be both very physical, and expansive, so it should be a great game to watch.

Most pundits would predict a French win, and I will also, although I think the result will be a lot closer than many would think.

Many of the Tongans play in France, and are familiar with the style of play that the French employ, and remember, they are well rested, and it's an all or nothing game for the Tongans, so it's play hard or go home for them.

I predict a win to the French by maybe nine points.

Here's the French team for the match, courtesy of the BBC website:

France: Maxime Medard, Vincent Clerc, Aurelien Rougerie, Maxime Mermoz, Alexis Palisson, Morgan Parra, Dimitri Yachvili; Jean-Baptiste Poux, William Servat, Luc Ducalon, Pascal Pape, Lionel Nallet, Thierry Dusautoir (capt), Julien Bonnaire, Raphael Lakafia.
Replacements: Dimitri Szarzewski, Fabien Barcella, Julien Pierre, Imanol Harinordoquy, Francois Trinh-Duc, Fabrice Estebanez, Cedric Heymans.

Blog by Shaggy
 

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