RWC warm up matches

[Black Hawk]

Playing in the toughest annual competition of them all, Los Pumas rarely have the chance to build up any winning momentum which they will obviously need in order to challenge for this World Cup. Today's match against Spain provides that perfect opportunity.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

As I laid out, the result in the opening round is just as irrelevant in determining your chances of winning the world cup

Even if you present your personal opinion as a fact, it's still an opinion.
Again, if those games are irrelevant as you claim we should see all of those teams fielding their very worst, saving the best for more relevant games.
If i were a betting man I'd wager that is not what we will see.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Depressing seeing Japan fall so quickly

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Even if you present your personal opinion as a fact, it's still an opinion.
Again, if those games are irrelevant as you claim we should see all of those teams fielding their very worst, saving the best for more relevant games.
If i were a betting man I'd wager that is not what we will see.

Okay, if you won't answer either of my two very easy questions. Correct my 'opinion' with a fact. How does finishing 1st in your group for NZ or Pumas increase their mathematical chances to win a QF? (assuming top ranked Tier1 sides progress to QF, which is extremely likely).

In terms of fielding weak teams. I am not predicting coaches will preserve their star players. I am saying some sides should not have gone full blooded in warm ups (as you said) and that some sides should carry this forward into the pool stages. I think coaches would feel they will get a lot less criticism for playing and losing an Ntamac than they would for playing an under strength side and finishing second in their group (even if the latter would increase their chances of overall success if it meant avoiding a key injury or red card).

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Pumas reportedly win 62-3 in Spain. What a stupid match for both sides, particularly at this time of RWC preperation. What can Cheika possibly learn from playing a transitional Spanish side?

 

[Black Hawk]

I think that it enabled Marcos Kremer to get some game time after his suspension, alongside the experienced Nicolas Sanchez and Tomas Cubelli both of whom have not featured much recently either, but who could still play vital roles in France. Other squad members who won't necessarily start against England, Samoa or Japan also got some valuable minutes, so I think it was a good fixture for Los Pumas.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Or take the Pumas. What scenario do you think gives the greatest chance of winning the RWC?:
A) win their group playing full strength a lot of the time, but lose Carrerras & Matera to red card or injury
B) come second in their group, limiting some play time for key starters like Carrerras and Matera, and lose two fringe players to a red card and injury

(You were right i didnt address this. My bad, apologies.)

That is a completely different scenario from the one we are discussing! During the world cup you do not get to choose opponents nor if you play at all. During warm up games you do.
But let me analyze one of your option: the odds of A) happening are quite different if they had a tough warm up game than if they didnt. That is precisely the point. You do not get to play with ALL the levers but you try to maximize your chances with the ones you can manage. Another thing in my favour. Arg plays Eng on their first test and Japan on their last (group wise). So if i had to plan, i'd take it very, very easy on the warm up games, full squad vs Eng, then rest most vs Samoa and Chile and see how things look after those 3 games in the group. For all teams. You can speculate at that point. The margin of error is way smaller. You even have a pretty good foresight of who the most likely 1/4s opponent will be.

 

[die_mole]

I think Argentina did things right. Play the obligated TRC. Then play another strong warm up match. Then spend a month playing friendlies to be a good neighbor/ score political points. Team will be fresh but won't be too rusty. They'll also have had a chance to learn from some tough games and had a month to work on it.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Pumas reportedly win 62-3 in Spain. What a stupid match for both sides, particularly at this time of RWC preperation. What can Cheika possibly learn from playing a transitional Spanish side?

Loads actually as Spain are probably the same standard as England right now

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Decent acclimatisation as well, mainland Europe is literally on fire ATM, very different to playing in the rain in London

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I'd have much preferred the Pumas played Portugal. Instead Portugal had to show their hand against pool mates Australia's 'A' team that weekend (which I don't think is fair on them). The 'A' team had more caps than the side losing to France. Portugal lost just 17-30 and I read were within 1 score with 1 min left (which is a typical Portugal). I may have been sleeping on Portugal as there isn't a dominant pack in their group and their backs can be stupidly good.

 

[Verde-Rubro]

I'd have much preferred the Pumas played Portugal. Instead Portugal had to show their hand against pool mates Australia's 'A' team that weekend (which I don't think is fair on them). The 'A' team had more caps than the side losing to France. Portugal lost just 17-30 and I read were within 1 score with 1 min left (which is a typical Portugal). I may have been sleeping on Portugal as there isn't a dominant pack in their group and their backs can be stupidly good.

What are Portugal's chances of registering a 1st ever win and who against

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

What are Portugal's chances of registering a 1st ever win and who against

Portugal had what I consider a slightly poor last 18 months in my opinion, but they looked good in the warmups (although I did not see as much of them as I would like). Everything depends on their forwards not losing too badly, as their backs are great. I would say:

vs Georgia - 25% chance of victory, especially if the Georgian lineout and scrum continues to struggle. Portugal got a draw recently in Tblisi.

vs Fiji - 15% chance. Fiji much improved generally and at set piece. They might not be able to fully dominate Portugal up front, which might give Portugal some hope (they do well against sides like Japan who cannot dominate with their forwards)

vs Wales - 5% chance. Wales should be coached well enough to prevent Portugal getting possession in dangerous positions. They also have a lot of pace on the wings which takes away one of the biggest Portguese threats

vs Australia - 5% chance. Portugal were within 6 points of an Australia 'A' side with 2 mins to go a couple of weeks ago. That Australian side had more caps / experience than the team they will play here. Unfortunately it means Australia know all about how Portugal play and that they are dangerous. So Australia will not be complacent. This could have potentially been a huge upset in the making if Australia were complacent.

All in all, Portugal have a very difficult group with no weak teams. But I think they will score a try in every match and could give a couple of scares to other teams, especially if the others rest star players against them. It all depends on whether their pack can limit the amount of penalties they concede.