[RWC19 Warm-Up] - Ireland vs. Wales

[TRF_heineken]

Venue: Aviva Stadium
Time: 15:00 CAT (SA, GMT+2)
Date: 07 September 2019​

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I know most people aren't a fan of the world rankings but I like it and think it has its place even in its current form. If it gets changed I hope it stays based on a points exchange system to a large degree.

As is if Ireland win here they end up #1. Ahead of NZ by 0.07 points and possibly 0.37 points in the case of a winning margin of 15+. A win for Wales would see them climb to #2. They'd need a winning margin of 15+ to get back to #1 on the rankings (which would have Ireland drop to #5 with SA moving into#4).

Home (on 88.86 points) at home -vs- Away (on 87.92 points)


If Home win by 1-15 points 0.606 89.47 87.31 No
If Home win by more than 15 0.909 89.77 87.01 No
If result is a draw 0.394 88.47 88.31 No
If Away win by 1-15 points 1.394 87.47 89.31 Yes
If Away win by more than 15 2.091 86.77 90.01 Yes
www.pickandgo.info

Lassen Creative Technologies Ltd MMV

 

[Groundhog]

Curious as to how strong we go for this now with our squad released. I imagine Schmidt and Garland will agree to go quite strong for this. Think Scannell and Conan need to start again. Guys like Murray also need some time I think

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Hope Gatland goes strong and Schmidt just punks him by picking the Bruff J2s.

 

[dullonien]

Can't see Ken Owens, AWJ, Biggar, JD2, North or Liam Williams being risked here, well not as starters anyway.

Carre, Dee, Francis
Ball, Beard
Tipuric, Davies, Moriarty

Tomos Williams, Patchell
Parkes, Watkin
Adams, Halfpenny, Amos

Reps: Elias, Wyn Jones, Lewis, Shingler, Navidi, Gareth Davies, Biggar, North

Something like that maybe?

 

[big ginger 8]

Are guys not in the 31 being kept on in camp?

You'd imagine Sexton and Henshaw will start as well as Earls if he can get fit. Then based on gametime so far, Conan, Ruddock, Ryan, Murray and Kearney will all have some involvement.

 

[Groundhog]

Sorry I'm bouncing around threads here. Earls and Carberry are apparently both training. Earls expected to play Saturday.

 

[munstermuffin]

Sorry I'm bouncing around threads here. Earls and Carberry are apparently both training. Earls expected to play Saturday.

Joey is back running and going fine on that front. Keith was always just being managed.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Can't see Ken Owens, AWJ, Biggar, JD2, North or Liam Williams being risked here, well not as starters anyway.

Carre, Dee, Francis
Ball, Beard
Tipuric, Davies, Moriarty

Tomos Williams, Patchell
Parkes, Watkin
Adams, Halfpenny, Amos

Reps: Elias, Wyn Jones, Lewis, Shingler, Navidi, Gareth Davies, Biggar, North

Something like that maybe?

I reckon it will be close if not this team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Shingler get another game as he needs the game time.

 

[Leinster Fan]

Purely based off gametime so far I expect we'll see

1. Healy (if he's fit, Kilcyone otherwise)
2. Best
3. Furlong
4. Kleyn (if we're taking him we might as well get him up to speed)
5. Ryan
6. Ruddock (again if he's going he needs the time)
7. Josh Vdf
8. Stander
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. Earls
12. Henshaw
13. Farrell (or Ringrose, no idea really)
14. Conway/Larmour (again, could be either)
15. Kearney

16. Cronin (he could start though)
17. Kilcoyne/Porter (see above)
18. Porter/Ryan (again, see above)
19. Beirne (I'd happily swap him with Kleyn)
20. Conan
21. McGrath
22. Carty (or Joey if he's fit)
23. Whichever of Conway or Larmour

Complete guess, fully expect to be completely wrong.

 

[Reiser99]

I honestly don't know what I'd do. Play full strength to help build some confidence or play second string to avoid injuries and give those who just made the plane some game time. I think both sides could still do with the win. Wales' win against England wasn't convincing as neither side played well and same with Ireland's. Yes there have been a few good individual performances, but both sides haven't played well as a whole team.

 

[profitius]

I honestly don't know what I'd do. Play full strength to help build some confidence or play second string to avoid injuries and give those who just made the plane some game time. I think both sides could still do with the win. Wales' win against England wasn't convincing as neither side played well and same with Ireland's. Yes there have been a few good individual performances, but both sides haven't played well as a whole team.

Have to play full strength to help with game fitness and cohesion. I'd expect us to be at 90% of our first choice squad. It's a minefield as far as injuries are concerned. We've been lucky enough so far but...

 

[collace]

I would imagine that those who have started the last two warmups won't be starting this time around. Off the top of my head that would be Henderson, O'Mahoney and Stockdale probably not starting this week.

 

[big ginger 8]

Schmidt having a press conference now, said Sexton will start and if Carbery trains on Thursday he'll be involved. so seems he's further along than expected.

Marmion, Murphy and Addison all training with the squad mostly for numbers in training.

EDIT: https://twitter.com/i/status/1168622121620107264

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

https://m.independent.ie/sport/rugb...ichot-over-devin-toner-comments-38462800.html

Joe being less abrasive in giving ultimately the same message to Agustin as Gats did... That being "why are you throwing shade our way because of things controlled by your employer, you dumb ****?"

 

[Leinster Fan]

How is rugby meant to take itself seriously, and present itself worldwide as a serious and well-organised sport, when the f***ing vice-president of the governing body regularly comes out with Facebook or Twitter level garbage? He's a guy high up in world rugby and all he does is complain about them. It's pathetic and unprofessional doesn't even start to describe it. It's as if George Hook or Neil Francis was a key figure in running the sport.

Imagine a country's vice-president (or equivalent) regularly criticising his government's policy on all sorts of issues. It'd be funny if it wasnt so ridiculous.

 

[big ginger 8]

How is rugby meant to take itself seriously, and present itself worldwide as a serious and well-organised sport, when the f***ing vice-president of the governing body regularly comes out with Facebook or Twitter level garbage? He's a guy high up in world rugby and all he does is complain about them. It's pathetic and unprofessional doesn't even start to describe it. It's as if George Hook or Neil Francis was a key figure in running the sport.

Imagine a country's vice-president (or equivalent) regularly criticising his government's policy on all sorts of issues. It'd be funny if it wasnt so ridiculous.

Americans shuffle quietly.

 

[Dai Perk]

Americans shuffle quietly.

Yeah, just imagine. Obviously, nobody would ever elect a complete lunatic, that's completely unimagina- ... Oh crap.

 

[big ginger 8]

Possible Ireland XV (v Wales):

15. Rob Kearney
14. Keith Earls
13. Robbie Henshaw
12. Bundee Aki
11. Jacob Stockdale
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Conor Murray

1. Dave Kilcoyne
2. Rory Best (captain)
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. James Ryan
5. Jean Kleyn
6. CJ Stander
7. Josh van der Flier
8. Jack Conan

The 42's expected team with Conan's spot depending if he makes it through training today. Obviously a pretty strong team overall, would put a lot of pressure on Best and Ryan in terms of the lineout. Think Stander and Conan should complement each other well. Would presume Ruddock has to be on the bench anyway given how little time he's gotten. Centres isn't particularly exciting but given how a lot of players have trimmed down it might be more like when the first played together. Stockdale playing strikes me as odd, particularly when he was taken off so early last week.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Wales: Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets); George North (Ospreys), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Josh Adams (Worcester Warriors); Rhys Patchell (Scarlets), Tomos Williams (Cardiff Blues); Wyn Jones (Scarlets), Elliot Dee (Dragons), Tomas Francis (Exeter), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (capt, Ospreys), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Adam Beard (Ospreys), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Gareth Davies (Scarlets), Dan Biggar (Northampton Saints), Liam Williams (Saracens).

I'm rather surprised that AWJ and Jon Davies are starting. If they go down he drop off in quality is quite noticeable. I thought Carre would get a bit more game time but I'm glad to see Ball back, he's got a bit of a limited skill set but he has the ability to carry over the gain line which a lot of Wale's tight 5 lack.