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[RWC19 Warm-Up] - Wales vs England

If the history of teams have taught me anything they are way more likely to revert to type during a RWC than produce some master game plan. It may happen and it might win a one off game ala Japan V SA but reality is this will be won by a team playing the skills what they've honed for the past 4 years.

For England it will be whether they can string together those dominant performances where they completely steamroller a team (think Ire in this years 6 nations).....BTW England are probably my leat favourites of the 5 teams with a real shot.

For Wales it will be the attritional stuff trying to reduce a game to a low scoring affair and bring the side to come out in top. Again can't see them managing in 3 knock out games in a row.

Which is why I have a NZ V Ire final I think they both have the better game for knock out rugby. They aren't trying to play a perfect performance or percentages.

How are Ireland any more likely to win 3 knock out games than Wales?
 
How are Ireland any more likely to win 3 knock out games than Wales?
I think Ireland have a more expansive game with the best half back pairing in the world right now. Coupled with an excellent forward pack that cause most sides trouble. That's a good combination and it's why they've beaten New Zealand let's count it...twice in this cycle.

They are a better balanced team that relies on their own skill to win matches, they can have off days like anyone in the top 5. But I just back them to win more than others. Their biggest issue for the RWC is they have a tough route to the final.
 
If the history of teams have taught me anything they are way more likely to revert to type during a RWC than produce some master game plan. It may happen and it might win a one off game ala Japan V SA but reality is this will be won by a team playing the skills what they've honed for the past 4 years.

For England it will be whether they can string together those dominant performances where they completely steamroller a team (think Ire in this years 6 nations).....BTW England are probably my leat favourites of the 5 teams with a real shot.

For Wales it will be the attritional stuff trying to reduce a game to a low scoring affair and bring the side to come out in top. Again can't see them managing in 3 knock out games in a row.

Which is why I have a NZ V Ire final I think they both have the better game for knock out rugby. They aren't trying to play a perfect performance or percentages.

How are Ireland any more likely to win 3 knock out games than Wales?
I think Ireland have a more expansive game with the best half back pairing in the world right now. Coupled with an excellent forward pack that cause most sides trouble. That's a good combination and it's why they've beaten New Zealand let's count it...twice in this cycle.

They are a better balanced team that relies on their own skill to win matches, they can have off days like anyone in the top 5. But I just back them to win more than others. Their biggest issue for the RWC is they have a tough route to the final.

Fair enough. But Schmidt is all about playing percentages. You won't see too many risks taken from them.

Can see Ireland getting a big knock out win in the quarters where they bring their near perfect game but it will take a lot out of them that I'm not sure they'll be able to maintain it all the way through. Hopefully they do the rest of us a favour and knock out the All Blacks and then have nothing left for the semi's ;)
 
...with the best half back pairing in the world right now...

It's a good post that I don't necessarily disagree with (as a whole) but I'd say they (Murray & Sexton) were definitely that in 2018 (and they 'may' well return to that form) but so far this year (which I think anyone would agree is more important) not so much.

As I say, I don't disagree with your overall argument but c'mon.
 
You'll need one side to come second in their group for that to happen....which may happen SA will certainly fancy their chances. But NZs first real test will in the semi's (Cant see them loosing to Scotland, Japan, Samoa or Russia). And that will be us and I don't think we'll win or Australia whom I don't hold out much hope for either.
 
It's a good post that I don't necessarily disagree with (as a whole) but I'd say they (Murray & Sexton) were definitely that in 2018 (and they 'may' well return to that form) but so far this year (which I think anyone would agree is more important) not so much.

As I say, I don't disagree with your overall argument but c'mon.
Honestly whilst Murray and Sexton are not as good as they were last year who do you pick instead?

Nobody in the NH for starters.
 
Honestly whilst Murray and Sexton are not as good as they were last year who do you pick instead?

Nobody in the NH for starters.

I think Faf and Handre Pollard are the best pair this year... NH-wise, if I was looking purely at their Test match contribution in 2019, they'd be behind Engalnd's, Wales' and Scotland's pairs. I really thought they (particularly Sexton) were just awful this year and Ireland would've probably won at least one more match maybe more with Marmion and Carbery.

Now that is not to say I don't think they'll recapture their form... they're world class (if you view their careers) and Joe Schmidt basically had to give them the opportunity to play themselves into form because of that but having said all that they were woeful this year.
 
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I'm a firm believer in the addage form is temporary but class is permanent. I'd rather have players of that calibre starting for me in a world cup than Youngs and Farrell even if they are out of form.
 
Sexton was so much better than Murray that six nations, as well as provincially this year... And they were still better than the Scottish halfbacks. Sexton and Murray both have more than enough in the bank to back up what ncurd says, if they're both at full fitness, which they weren't in the 6n, I wouldn't swap them for any half back pairing you could think of.

Edit: Everyone forgets Sexton lead Leinster to a Heino final and Pro 14 win pushing this out of form narrative, Ireland were bad but Sexton was really one of the last people to blame, put any 10 behind a pack getting dicked and a 9 who can't pass because his arm is ****** and they won't look good.
 
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I'm a firm believer in the addage form is temporary but class is permanent. I'd rather have players of that calibre starting for me in a world cup than Youngs and Farrell even if they are out of form.
Sexton was so much better than Murray that six nations, as well as provincially this year... And they were still better than the Scottish halfbacks. Sexton and Murray both have more than enough in the bank to back up what ncurd says, if they're both at full fitness, which they weren't in the 6n, I wouldn't swap them for any half back pairing you could think of.

Don't get me wrong guys, as I've said they are world class and are therefore are so important to Ireland that they have to be given the opportunity to regain that form... and yes for the most part form is temporary and class is permanent... but Sexton isn't getting any younger (or any more mature ironically) and Murray has obviously suffered some pretty extensive injury, one that might (I hope not for his sake) cause him real difficulty in getting back to where he was.
 
Don't get me wrong guys, as I've said they are world class and are therefore are so important to Ireland that they have to be given the opportunity to regain that form... and yes for the most part form is temporary and class is permanent... but Sexton isn't getting any younger (or any more mature ironically) and Murray has obviously suffered some pretty extensive injury, one that might (I hope not for his sake) cause him real difficulty in getting back to where he was.

Fortunately the World Cup is now and not in two years and Sexton played excellently after the 6n. Murray too was definitely improving with Munster and has had a summer of recovery with lots of contact with top professions. This opinion comes across as lazy/hopeful fear mongering more than anything else, there are a few far more pressing concerns than Sexton and Murray in the Ireland set up.

I don't agree with ncurd by the way, I think England are the NH's best hope but I reckon we're heading towards an NZ v SA final. But not because of Sexton and Murray, give them a platform and they won't lose.
 
Edit: Everyone forgets Sexton lead Leinster to a Heino final and Pro 14 win pushing this out of form narrative, Ireland were bad but Sexton was really one of the last people to blame, put any 10 behind a pack getting dicked and a 9 who can't pass because his arm is ****** and they won't look good.

Totally agree with your edit but that's why I said I was looking purely at this years test matches... where he clearly underperformed.
 
Wales can win the world cup of that there is no doubt, if you think they are going to suddenly find some level of attacking flair after 8 years of God awful brand they've produced under Gatland you have another thing coming.
Exactly. Wales absolutely have the ability to win the world cup, but they're really unlikely to do so playing some kind of snazzy attacking rugby. But history shows us that to win a world cup, the ability to grind out tight ugly wins is far more important than the amount of points you can rack up in the warmup. World cup knockout games are much more likely to be the former than the latter, obviously there are exceptions but no one has ever won a RWC without one tense arm wrestle, even the All Blacks last time had the semi against SA.

As for Murray/Sexton, I think it's both fair to say that they are the best halfback pairing in the world, while also recognising that they both have form issues that they need to sort out.
 
This opinion comes across as lazy/hopeful fear mongering more than anything else....
Well that's your opinion and not only are you fully entitled to it but I won't lose any sleep over it... nor Murray and Sexton.

I was more than happy to sing their praises off of 2018 but by the same token I'll pull no punches when the two players who picked up world player of the year honours in late 2018 (I didn't know there was more than one award until I read Murray won one too) were so off the pace only a couple of months later.
 
Well that's your opinion and not only are you fully entitled to it but I won't lose any sleep over it... nor Murray and Sexton.

I was more than happy to sing their praises off of 2018 but by the same token I'll pull no punches when the two players who picked up world player of the year honours in late 2018 (I didn't know there was more than one award until I read Murray won one too) were so off the pace only a couple of months later.

In addition to my comments about Murray and Sexton, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they are back to their brilliant best against England and Wales in the coming weeks... I'm just going off what I've seen thus far in 2019.
 
Totally agree with your edit but that's why I said I was looking purely at this years test matches... where he clearly underperformed.
Well that's your opinion and not only are you fully entitled to it but I won't lose any sleep over it... nor Murray and Sexton.

I was more than happy to sing their praises off of 2018 but by the same token I'll pull no punches when the two players who picked up world player of the year honours in late 2018 (I didn't know there was more than one award until I read Murray won one too) were so off the pace only a couple of months later.
Took the edit out there because I was replying to a new post in broadly the same way btw.

Obviously we're entitled to our opinions and anyone who's getting riled up over those of strangers online should probably take a break. My comment wasn't meant to be aggressive or insulting, I'm just expressing what I think about your post to continue the pointless existence of these boards. Admittedly my bluntness might come across as arrogant or provocative, that's just how I've learnt and been taught to write, maybe a synonym with better connotations than lazy would have been better in hindsight.

That said you've admitted your argument is coming from a small sample of games where a host of other issues affecting the two players were present and that it's ignoring games played since. This started with ncurd saying they're the best in the world right now, not this year, if you take the world cup cycle as a whole, even if you weight it favourably to this year (which is only half an international season) it's still very fair. If we're only arguing this year the South Africans obviously take it and Murray and Sexton are down the list it's just an odd way to approach it in my opinion. I think you'd have to be very reactionary, and backing the exception rather than the norm, to choose any other NH pairing over them going into the world cup, there's arguments to be made for the Saffas and Kiwis for sure though. I'm definitely projecting a bit on you here as well because I've seen and heard some (far more) outrageous opinions on Johnny recently and this is the first time it's come up here and given me an opportunity to respond prior to the RWC.
 
Took the edit out there because I was replying to a new post in broadly the same way btw.

Obviously we're entitled to our opinions and anyone who's getting riled up over those of strangers online should probably take a break. My comment wasn't meant to be aggressive or insulting, I'm just expressing what I think about your post to continue the pointless existence of these boards. Admittedly my bluntness might come across as arrogant or provocative, that's just how I've learnt and been taught to write, maybe a synonym with better connotations than lazy would have been better in hindsight.

That said you've admitted your argument is coming from a small sample of games where a host of other issues affecting the two players were present and that it's ignoring games played since. This started with ncurd saying they're the best in the world right now, not this year, if you take the world cup cycle as a whole, even if you weight it favourably to this year (which is only half an international season) it's still very fair. If we're only arguing this year the South Africans obviously take it and Murray and Sexton are down the list it's just an odd way to approach it in my opinion. I think you'd have to be very reactionary, and backing the exception rather than the norm, to choose any other NH pairing over them going into the world cup, there's arguments to be made for the Saffas and Kiwis for sure though. I'm definitely projecting a bit on you here as well because I've seen and heard some (far more) outrageous opinions on Johnny recently and this is the first time it's come up here and given me an opportunity to respond prior to the RWC.

It's all good Alf, if I was Irish I'd probably see things exactly the same. As I said, I wouldn't be surprised if they turn match winners in one, two or three of the upcoming warm ups against England and Wales.
 
Exactly. Wales absolutely have the ability to win the world cup, but they're really unlikely to do so playing some kind of snazzy attacking rugby. But history shows us that to win a world cup, the ability to grind out tight ugly wins is far more important than the amount of points you can rack up in the warmup. World cup knockout games are much more likely to be the former than the latter, obviously there are exceptions but no one has ever won a RWC without one tense arm wrestle, even the All Blacks last time had the semi against SA.

As for Murray/Sexton, I think it's both fair to say that they are the best halfback pairing in the world, while also recognising that they both have form issues that they need to sort out.
As a bit of an extension, I think Murray and Sexton, when on form, are perfectly suited to winning tight games, especially Sexton who is has consistently seen teams come through tight games on the right side over his career. This, incidentally, is also why I'd prefer Ross Byrne to Jack Carty despite being a probably inferior outhalf, his game is more suited to a high-pressure knockout game environment for me, and he's shown he can win tight games for Leineter, even on one leg!
 
I totally agree with the above comments about Faf and Pollard being the top pair. Did you not see Pollard vs Argentina last week?

Personal opinion is SA will take the ***le this time round. They are physical and direct but also have serious xfactor in the team. Pollard can keep the points ticking over.
 
I think Ireland have a more expansive game with the best half back pairing in the world right now. Coupled with an excellent forward pack that cause most sides trouble. That's a good combination and it's why they've beaten New Zealand let's count it...twice in this cycle.

They are a better balanced team that relies on their own skill to win matches, they can have off days like anyone in the top 5. But I just back them to win more than others. Their biggest issue for the RWC is they have a tough route to the final.

Murray and Sexton aren't the best half back combination in the world right now, they haven't been since 17/18. I expect the Irish to crash out in the quarters as they normally do.
 

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