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[RWC2015] New Zealand

TRF Mr Fish

Your Piscine Overlord
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I've got an exam tomorrow, and because I really don't want to do any studying for it I've taken the liberty of creating a thread to talk a bit about how NZ will go in the next world cup. Specifically, I'd like to have a chat about the squad that we'll see head over to England. Below I've listed a decent list of players who I think are capable of making the squad, position by position. Whilst there may be the odd player selected not from the list, I think it's unlikely someone will burst onto the scene next year and be able to force themselves into the team.

Hookers
- Keven Mealamu
- Dane Coles
- Hika Elliot
- Liam Coltman
- Ben Funnell
- Rhys Marshall

Loosehead Props
- Tony Woodcock
- Wyatt Crockett
- Joe Moody
- Ben Franks
- Jeff Toomaga-Allen
- Ben Tameifuna
- Jamie Mackintosh

Tighthead Props
- Owen Franks
- Charlie Faumuina
- Ben Franks
- Ben Afeaki
- Jeff Toomaga-Allen
- Ben Tameifuna

Locks
- Sam Whitelock
- Brodie Retallick
- Luke Romano
- Dominic Bird
- Jeremy Thrush

Blindside Flankers
- Liam Messam
- Steven Luatua
- Jerome Kaino
- Brad Shields
- Luke Whitelock
- Richie McCaw

Openside Flankers
- Richie McCaw
- Sam Cane
- Matt Todd
- Ardie Savea

Number 8's
- Kieran Read
- Victor Vito
- Jerome Kaino
- Luke Whitelock

Halfbacks
- Aaron Smith
- Tawera Kerr-Barlow
- TJ Perenara
- Augustine Pulu
- Piri Weepu

First Fives
- Dan Carter
- Aaron Cruden
- Beauden Barrett
- Tom Taylor
- Colin Slade

Centres
- Ma'a Nonu
- Francis Saili
- Ryan Crotty
- Dan Carter
- Conrad Smith
- Ben Smith
- Sonny Bill Williams
- Richard Kahui
- Mils Muliaina

Outside Backs
- Julian Savea
- Charles Piutau
- Ben Smith
- Cory Jane
- Frank Halai
- Israel Dagg
- Johnny McNicholl
- Richard Kahui
- Mils Muliana

The squad will be comprised of 30 players, with a 16/14 split (in all likelihood). I think that we'll see a squad resembling:
Hookers - Mealamu, Coles, Coltman
Props - Woodcock, Moody, Franks, Faumuina
Locks - Whitelock, Retallick, Romano, Bird
Loosies - Messam, McCaw, Read (c), Luatua, Cane
Halfbacks - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith, Williams
Outside Backs - Dagg, Smith, Jane, Savea, Piutau

Kahui will likely be injured ;)

Let's get this ball rolling...
 
Carter, Nonu, Mealamu and Smith might be pushing it in terms of age but that looks like a team that's pretty bloody close to bulletproof.

No obvious weaknesses there except for some inexperience at hooker and not as much front row depth as you'd want. As usual, NZ look like the team to beat.
 
Part of me really wishes we could get Afoa back to play LH (even though he's playing TH for Ulster).

It seems absurd to me that we've been using Ben Franks as a TH - despite him obviously not being a good enough scrummager (I don't even like him much as a LH). Crockett has just been a penalty machine. I used to really rate him but now its just getting silly.

I doubt we'll be seeing much more of Charlie Faumuina at LH - with Woodcock returning to the Blues in Super Rugby it seems he'll be acting as a specialist TH.

With the Chiefs losing Toby Smith, I wonder if we'll see either of Ben Afeaki or Ben Tameifuna playing at LH? Either that or we'll see Jamie Mackintosh start often at LH and bring on Paulisai Manu. I love JTA for the Canes and Hansen has inferred he sees him as able to play LH, but with Ben Franks starting there for the Canes I don't see how he will develop there...

Maybe Moody is the answer, as others have said he scrummaged well in the ITM Cup...

But in my opinion it looks like LH is going to remain a bit of a problem position for us for a while, especially as Woodcock gets older.
 
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Surely they will take 5 props with the two props on the bench these days. Agree with the loosehead depth issue, if jaime makintosh has a big year, who knows he could make it, stranger things have happened! Same for hika eliot at hooker, if he just fixed up his throwing he would be one of the best hookers in the country.
 
Yeah I imagine there will be 5 props in the squad. A prop that could cover hooker or a hooker that could cover prop would be handy, but we don't have anyone up to test standard at this stage. Liam Coltman can cover TH prop at ITM Cup level, but is untested past that level.

The shortage of LH props is an issue, and at this stage converting one of our young THs (Toomaga-Allen, Tameifuna, Afeaki) to the LH side may be our best option though they would need to get them playing there at Super Rugby level. I'm not 100% convinced about Moody yet, but at least he can hold up his side of the scrum (which is more than you can say for Crockett at the moment).
 
The biggest issue with the props is that it's unlikely we'll see Moody (the next cab off the ranks) getting heaps of game time in Super Rugby with Crockett ahead of him. Likewise the Chiefs have Manu and Mackintosh, so why would they risk losing one of their tight heads to injury whilst playing at 1 when they have a couple of decent loose heads already in the squad? Maybe we'll see Ben Franks and Toomaga-Allen swap sides next year in Super Rugby, if we don't then I don't see how JTA can be a viable player there for NZ.

In terms of the squad itself, in the last World Cup we only had four props, and I can't see who'd you'd drop in favour of one now? Like Darwin's said, Coltman can cover prop at a pinch, and I think they'll bank on that. The only place you could cut down would be dropping one lock, as Luatua can cover there. Otherwise, there's simply no space to accommodate a fifth prop.
 
The squad will be comprised of 30 players, with a 16/14 split (in all likelihood). I think that we'll see a squad resembling:
Hookers - Mealamu, Coles, Coltman
Props - Woodcock, Moody, Franks, Faumuina
Locks - Whitelock, Retallick, Romano, Bird
Loosies - Messam, McCaw, Read (c), Luatua, Cane
Halfbacks - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith, Williams
Outside Backs - Dagg, Smith, Jane, Savea, Piutau

Kahui will likely be injured ;)

Let's get this ball rolling...

That's a pretty damn good squad. Still the 2007 one was pretty damn good:0).

Joking aside, do you not think Kaino will make the squad? Too early to tell IMO and what he will be like after 2 years in Japan, whether he can rediscover his WC 2011 form. Luatua can cover lock and 6 and with Kaino likely to play 8 at the Blues, the ABs will at least have an 8 back up to Read, who plays there regularly for their club, unlike McCaw and Messam.
 
The biggest issue with the props is that it's unlikely we'll see Moody (the next cab off the ranks) getting heaps of game time in Super Rugby with Crockett ahead of him. Likewise the Chiefs have Manu and Mackintosh, so why would they risk losing one of their tight heads to injury whilst playing at 1 when they have a couple of decent loose heads already in the squad? Maybe we'll see Ben Franks and Toomaga-Allen swap sides next year in Super Rugby, if we don't then I don't see how JTA can be a viable player there for NZ.

In terms of the squad itself, in the last World Cup we only had four props, and I can't see who'd you'd drop in favour of one now? Like Darwin's said, Coltman can cover prop at a pinch, and I think they'll bank on that. The only place you could cut down would be dropping one lock, as Luatua can cover there. Otherwise, there's simply no space to accommodate a fifth prop.

But in 2011 there were 22 men benches. Now there are 23 men benches with a room for an extra prop - so it would only take one prop to be injured and we'd have to rely on a hooker...seems unlikely to me. That said there seemed to be room for injury replacements in the last RWC, but it would mean a prop would have to be fully replaced. I'd be suprised if we didn't see five props in the RWC 2015, unless a hooker starts to look outstanding as a prop. Now I want Aled de Malmanche back as he's been very good at prop for Stade Francais and wasn't bad when he was here. It wouldn't hurt otherwise having a prop who can play hooker at a pinch, but I don't think making a hooker play prop often wields any good results.
 
But in 2011 there were 22 men benches. Now there are 23 men benches with a room for an extra prop - so it would only take one prop to be injured and we'd have to rely on a hooker...seems unlikely to me. That said there seemed to be room for injury replacements in the last RWC, but it would mean a prop would have to be fully replaced. I'd be suprised if we didn't see five props in the RWC 2015, unless a hooker starts to look outstanding as a prop. Now I want Aled de Malmanche back as he's been very good at prop for Stade Francais and wasn't bad when he was here. It wouldn't hurt otherwise having a prop who can play hooker at a pinch, but I don't think making a hooker play prop often wields any good results.

Which position would you drop a player from? The same argument for taking an extra prop you can make for having a third halfback, fourth lock etc.
 
There were 5 props in the ABs 28-man Rugby Championship squad, so there will almost certainly be 5 in a 30-man squad. The positional make-up of the squad becomes more complicated with 5 props, and will to some degree depend on the versitility of the players selected. One option is to drop a lock (as Luatua could cover lock if required). But personally I would drop an outside back. With Barrett able to cover fullback (and SBW/Kahui able to cover the wing if either is around) there would be no need for 5 outside backs.
 
Will the squad neccasarily be only 30? 5 props is a certainty. It seems at the moment crockett is cemented as 2nd choice loosehead and I personally dont see that changing before the cup. If it infact does, the wheels will need to start in motion nowish.
Onto other positions, will mealamu have the wheels to make 2015? Starting to feel a bit worried about that front row. Feel confident about woodcock, man can still perform, it would be nice however for owen franks to peak in form sometime soon.
Out of spite I hope sonny bill doesn't make the squad. Obviously if hes the form player he should be picked, but I just hope he somehow isnt, man needs a smack of reality. Only way thats possible is if someone like crotty out performs him... lol. One can only hope. Jeez francis saili defs didnt take his chances like expected, hed be lucky to get many more pre cup, seems crotty is favoured ahead of him currently.
 
Messam out
Kaino in

Kaino is just naturally bigger and he is unstoppable when he gets going.
Messam is a really fine player but just not big enough for my money against the packs of South Africa and England.
Kaino for me. He's back from Japan and seems to be hungry again.
 
I think Woodcock, Mealamu and Nonu will be past their sell dates by then as they will be 34, 36 and 33. Other than that your squad looks pretty good. I might add Frank Halai as well to your squad. If we follow the form of the last two RWCs then DC will be injured as well as Kahui.
 
I think Woodcock, Mealamu and Nonu will be past their sell dates by then as they will be 34, 36 and 33. Other than that your squad looks pretty good. I might add Frank Halai as well to your squad. If we follow the form of the last two RWCs then DC will be injured as well as Kahui.

Think there leaving it pretty late to find replacments to such key players in the squad. Nonu and woodcock especially are two of the anchors in the current team. On the other hand though, hansen has said publically that they assess players value on a year by year basis, so you could be right.
 
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/9413896/Write-off-Carter-at-your-peril-says-Hansen

Hansen's theory why DC is so injury prone: he has an ugly gait; which puts pressure on his joints and ligaments. He's also been playing with ****les; his Achilles was sore after the Japan and France games, which is why he was taken off early in each game and got worse in the England game.

The question is whether the 6 months off and getting over ****les etc will see him last to the next WC.
 
Think there leaving it pretty late to find replacments to such key players in the squad. Nonu and woodcock especially are two of the anchors in the current team. On the other hand though, hansen has said publically that they assess players value on a year by year basis, so you could be right.

Remember that Owen Franks only made his international debut two years prior to the 2011 RWC.

If Woodcock is the best performing LH prop we have in SR next year then fair play - but I think we'd be pretty dumb to ignore a better performing prop, particularly if there is one scrummaging especially well, as our scrum hasn't been an area of strength for us in a while. I still feel like we were being prepared a few seasons ago for some big changes with Hansen acknowledging a team full of guys in their mid thirties would be very risky. Now it seems we're seeing guys who are past thirty and looking like the only viable option. Surely someone other than Woodcock should be getting starts at LH, and should have been for a few years. Waiting till they are well and truly past it to start transitioning younger guys in some of these areas may well come back to bite us.
 
Exactly nickdnz. Sam Cane has been getting starts with the ABs when he wasn't even getting starts for his Super team - this is understandable if they want to be developing him for the future. The same should be done for props and also for hooker since Hore and KM have dominated the position for so long but they are both very long in the tooth.
 
It seems a player around 30 will be given the same chance as a player of 23-24. There is no point dropping Mealamu and co just 'incase' they don't perform in 2015. All those aforementioned older players didn't perform at Super Rugby level so were judged by their test performances alone - what a different season we would have had if there was no Woodcock, Hore, Nonu, Mealamu etc they should be picked no matter what.
PS If they weren't in the reckoning Hanson would have dispatched them like Weepu and Williams, accept maybe Hore as there was no one else. It will be obvious if there is a better player about, look at Muliaina/Dagg at last WC. I fear as a DC fan we may see his star fade naturally if Cruden has another brilliant season next year....?
 
You are right Jack, there is no point in dropping a player just because of age. But I would argue that a player can hit the age wall very quickly - he can be brilliant one year and past it the next. I would argue that Brian O'Driscoll is a case in point for that right now. And to give an example of a hooker - you can argue that was the case with John Smit at the 2011 RWC. By the way, Mealamu is only one year younger than Smit.
 
Remember that Owen Franks only made his international debut two years prior to the 2011 RWC.

If Woodcock is the best performing LH prop we have in SR next year then fair play - but I think we'd be pretty dumb to ignore a better performing prop, particularly if there is one scrummaging especially well, as our scrum hasn't been an area of strength for us in a while. I still feel like we were being prepared a few seasons ago for some big changes with Hansen acknowledging a team full of guys in their mid thirties would be very risky. Now it seems we're seeing guys who are past thirty and looking like the only viable option. Surely someone other than Woodcock should be getting starts at LH, and should have been for a few years. Waiting till they are well and truly past it to start transitioning younger guys in some of these areas may well come back to bite us.

yip, that is what SA realized with regards to their locks... they only played, bakkies, matfield, danie rossouw etc not really giving the youngsters a chance. Luckily Ysterbeth stepped up but the other youngsters cannot handle the pressure, this is why they bring bakkies back, they might aswell bring matfield back aswell and naas botha...
 

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