[RWC2019][Quarter-Final 2] New Zealand vs. Ireland (19/10/2019)

[TRF_heineken]

Venue: Tokyo Stadium
Time: 12:15 CAT (SA, GMT+2)​

 

[Larksea]

I like our chances. I think we are in great form with minimal injuries and good competition in the squad.
Competition to the point where selection is going to be interesting. Retallick is back but both Scott Barrett and Tuipulotu have been playing really well meaning even the bench slots are going to be tough to select.
The lost game against Italy is a setback. the players will have an internal game but it wont be the same. Having to go from a couple of soft games through a week off into a QF against one of the best teams is a big ask. IMO getting the preparation right from such a poor buildup is going to maybe be the biggest challenge. I see our form against Aussie, Tonga and SA compared to how Ireland are tracking and I don't think Ireland have a chance. But getting back to that level after such a long break since that first pool game against SA is a challenge.

Selection?
1, moody
2, coles
3, laulala
4, Whitelock
5, Retalick
6, Savea
7, Cane
8, Read
9, Smith
10, Richie
11, Bridge
12, SBW
13, ALB
14, Sevu
15, barrett

Taylor, Angus, Ofa, Scott, Todd, Perenara, Jordie, Bender

many spots of contention, could easily see Crotty starting and SBW on the bench. Crotty on the bench for Jordie. Tuipuloto or Frizell on the bench for Todd.
I think Goodhue is down the pecking order since his injury and overall SBW & ALB have been the best midfielders.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Are the Barrett triplets going to play? I read that their grandfather passed away yesterday. RIP

 

[cardassian]

Ireland are the last team I wanted New Zealand to face in the quarterfinals.
While on current form we must be considered favourites, I feel this is the situation most likely to cause an upset and knock us out early.
Ireland has beaten NZ two of the last three times we have played each other. This means that despite form this Ireland team will believe they can win this game. The All Black aura that often gives us a mental edge won't be there.
The fact that Ireland have never won a knock is it game in a rugby World Cup adds to the danger. Mentally this is Ireland's final. Over the years I have often seen the black caps peak in the early stages of knock out, especially against teams ranked better than us, only to be spent and get thrashed in the next game. I feel Ireland are a danger of doing that to us here. Getting up for the big game and beating NZ only to play poorly in the semi.
I still think NZ will win but I'd feel more comfortable against any other team in the quarterfinals.

 

[ncurd]

Honestly in Ireland favour, they don't fear the ABs some players involved in a semi-successful Lions tour and the rest involved in 2 wins.

Against them will be the weight of history in the QF and their performances so far in both warm up/group stages.

Should be an all mighty ding ding. Pre tourny I'd say Ireland but I think the ABs will shave it, and I do think the scoreline will be tight. I'll be supporting Ireland thoroughly though.

 

[BobbyM]

And in 6 days we can have another round of "respect the haka" chat from all sides

 

[BobbyM]

Ireland are the last team I wanted New Zealand to face in the quarterfinals.
While on current form we must be considered favourites, I feel this is the situation most likely to cause an upset and knock us out early.
Ireland has beaten NZ two of the last three times we have played each other. This means that despite form this Ireland team will believe they can win this game. The All Black aura that often gives us a mental edge won't be there.
The fact that Ireland have never won a knock is it game in a rugby World Cup adds to the danger. Mentally this is Ireland's final. Over the years I have often seen the black caps peak in the early stages of knock out, especially against teams ranked better than us, only to be spent and get thrashed in the next game. I feel Ireland are a danger of doing that to us here. Getting up for the big game and beating NZ only to play poorly in the semi.
I still think NZ will win but I'd feel more comfortable against any other team in the quarterfinals.

I agree except I'd put England above Ireland in terms of teams that worry me.

 

[jimbobjoe]

It's a longshot but could be worthwhile - I've got 5 x Cat C tickets for QF4 (Japan V SA) looking to swap for QF2 tickets. If anyone has any leads, Japanese or SA friends with the wrong ticket, please let me know.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Is this Ireland team good enough to beat the AB? Yes (they have proved that), do they currently look like they can? No. For a team that is built around being clinical, they haven't been that clinical this past year and in trying to do something different have looked out of ideas. If there's any game to psych up yourself to turn your form around this is it though.

 

[munstermuffin]

This is type of game Ireland turn up to. When off form and no expectation

 

[TRF_heineken]

This is type of game Ireland turn up to. When off form and no expectation

Except that this is a QF...

 

[Reiser99]

If Ireland have Sexton and Murray purring then it's definitely on. Those two have had a dip in form, Murray especially, but if they click then they are probably still the best halfback combination in the world.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think we have a chance, which is more than I thought three days ago. But a lot has to go our way. I want the winner to come from this QF anyway.

Sexton and Henshaw (at 12) back is absolutely huge. I doubt Carty and Farrell would get a start in an NZ super rugby team, Sexton and Henshaw have the ability to be the best player in the world in their position and both have been for at least one international block in this world cup cycle.

We need our carriers to carry smart again, lately the footwork has been fairly non existent and the tip on passes have been given at the wrong time, there was some improvement v Samoa but Healy's and Henderson's footwork was very much lacking, Stander's too but I'm not sure if be ever had it to be honest.

Our defence is strong, we kept Japan to one try when they got BPs in every other game and have been one of the more clinical sides in the tournament and outside that game we conceded 8 points, 5 of which were during a period of play where I'm pretty sure Conor Murray thought he was Samoan. Keep this a low scoring affair and we could nick it.

To win though we'd need at least as good a performance as Dublin last year or be as good as we were in the first half in Twickenham in 2018 for at least 60 minutes. The team have about 100 minutes of rugby this year that would give them any confidence of playing at that level so it's definitely a massive ask, and against a perfectly rested New Zealand who'll not only want to beat us but embarrass us I won't be putting anything but hope on the result, I'm less confident than before the 2016 game where we were 23 point underdogs.

I think this win will give either side a good enough confidence boost to nudge them past England though, with a couple of added factors helping either team - NZ because they seem to take it personally when a team who hasn't beaten them in ages talks about winning a world cup and Ireland because the chance of getting beaten three times in a row by an evenly matched side is massive motivation to win, you just have to look at the Dublin match this year - If either comes to pass I'd then think NZ would want Wales and Ireland would want SA in a final.

**** it... Ireland by 10.

 

[bushytop]

If Ireland are ever gonna break their QF hoodoo this would be the game to do it in. How many times have Ireland been favourites in QF's? Pretty much all of the ones that I can remember (there may well be some that I have forgotten).

Maybe being the underdog for once & against a team they have been 'built' to beat... well I've read worse scripts.

 

[TheOvalBall]

Money on Ireland to win

 

[KSB]

Very well balanced quarter finals, in all matches there is a genuine argument for either team to win. I am happy there should be 4 excellent matches and hoping that I can find somewhere decent in the Algarve to watch them

Going from this year's form I think the ABs should win this quarter by about 10 points, although there is a definite question mark about the ABs confidence against the Irish based on the last match in particular. I do feel as though the ABs played very poorly in that match with a lot of basic skills not executed correctly, I am not sure if it was because the team was just going through a blip or if it was because of the Irish pressure (probably a combination of both). The new wings have brought about a lot of energy and hustle into the team which we seemed to be lacking.

Does anyone know when the referees for the quarter final are named? I really hope we don't get one of the French referees for this match, would prefer Owens, Gardner or even Barnes (both countries seem to have pretty bad records under him)

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Does anyone know when the referees for the quarter final are named? I really hope we don't get one of the French referees for this match, would prefer Owens, Gardner or even Barnes (both countries seem to have pretty bad records under him)

I don't know but it definitely won't be Gardner, I'd say he's on touch judge duty for the rest of the tournament. I'd be happy with any of Berry, Gauzere or Barnes who are a level above anyone else in Japan.

Peyper and Gardner are best avoided for Ireland.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Neither team have looked as good as in recent years TBH but I'll go with NZ FTW.

 

[donmcdazzle]

The teams I feared most probably before the tournament were England and Ireland and the boks. And now here we go having to play all 3 if we want to make another final! Not how I envisioned it all playing out.

We will need a big performance. Ireland's low risk, strangle game is tough for the ABs to handle as we seem to score a lot off opposition mistakes. Starve us of ball and run through heaps of phases and we can look pretty ordinary at times (Chicago, Dublin, Perth).

Discipline and accuracy will be super important both ways, moreso than against most sides.

If we are even on the counting stats (possession, territory, penalties) then I would hope we have enough to win.

Sexton, Murray the key men (again) for Ireland.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

I'm real nervous about this one...just feel we might be undercooked