[RWC2019][Quarter-Final 4] Japan vs. South Africa (20/10/2019)

[TRF_heineken]

Venue: Tokyo Stadium
Time: 12:15 CAT (SA, GMT+2)​

 

[unrated]

South Africa to teach the Japanese a rugby lesson. Japanese public then proceeds to be in awe of how strong this Springbok team is and how easily they dispatched the unbeaten Cherry Blossoms. Springboks the proceed to become the most marketable team in World Rugby with millions of new fans in Japan. World Rugby will then be forced to climb out of bed with the French rugby union and look out the window with a view of the eiffel tower and realize they need to be more fair towards the rest of the teams and specifically South Africa who now drives most of the rugby revenue worldwide.

World Rugby starts by promising that the Springboks won't get one of Jerome Garces or Romain Pointe for our final three games leading up to the world Cup final trophy presentation

 

[Jer1cho]

Confidence:

Our tight 5. If we scrum them away (with a few penalties for scoreboard pressure), and steal line outs as well as winning the collisions, we will be in a good place. We simply MUST control the tempo of the game in order to have a chance.
Rest and preparation. Arguably the most well prepared team going into the QF, with very few disruptions, and a good bit of preparation time, and a settled camp could bode well.
We lost to Japan in 2015, and played a warm up game against them. For the first time EVER, that 2015 debacle looks like it was an absolute blessing in disguise. I do not think we will underestimate this team ever again, and Rassie has known this for quite some time. There is a feeling that we are treating this team like the All blacks, and that is exactly what we will need to do in order to win.

Potential problems:

The referee. I'm getting this one straight off the bat. It's not hard to see this WC that the referees are very strict on the 'so called' better teams. Japan were great against the Scots, but I have never ever seen as many side entries into rucks go unpunished as I did in that game. Japan were doing it constantly and were never pinged. The crowd influence in these big games are a thing, and I hope that the last talking point after this game is a referee. If it's a french referee we are doomed anyway so here's hoping it isn't.

The fact that it's the last game of the weekend is tricky. I hope we dont look past this game but knowing who is coming in the SF and whether or not NZ has been knocked out might sneak a thought or two into the team. If that happens it will be very bad.

The crowd and entire world for that matter will be against us on Sunday. Tokyo will be a very lonely place for us, and I really hope we build a big lead to kill the 16th man. If not, 2015 will be repeated, as we all know that when it comes to mental strength, we are perhaps one of the worst and most easily influenced bunch on the planet. Ask the Proteas if you doubt this point.


This could be an amazing game, and I for one are hoping Japan don't have another performance like what we saw in them. In saying that, I believe we are the better team, and all we have to do is show it. Nervous as all hell, and it will be a damn long week.

 

[Every Time Ref]

I do think SA will outmuscle Japan in the end but it will be a cracker. Japan have made a lot of defences look stupid because of how well they pull structures around and mix up where they attack - the battle with the Boks' rush defence will be god to watch, ultimately I think they'll be a step up from what they've faced to this point in terms of organisation and intensity.

 

[TRF_heineken]

You guys are way more confident than me about this game. It's certainly a banana-peel.

Japan's main source of getting over the gain line against the Scots, was the inside ball off the 10 channel or first reciever. And that is an area we will have to be certain to protect properly.

The other difference between Scotland and us, is our rush defence, at times it seemed like the Japanese had way too much time to make decisions, and the Scots didn't really rush them.

It will certainly be a different ballgame against us, and I hope we prepare very well. I just don't think it will be the same kind of match like we had against them in the warm-ups.

 

[Hydraulxx]

I think we have this game, Japan will throw everything at us but our defense is far more aggressive and organised than the Scots. Japan will have much less space than what they have received so far. We should also dominate the set pieces and collisions.

Hopefully this match will have our 3 key players return to form in Faf, Le Roux and Pollard. I don't see us winning the tournament unless these 3 players start performing again.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

It will a great game of contrasting styles. I hope the Cherry Blossoms prevail, but suspect SA Power will ultimately. Great game to finish off the QFs.

 

[cardassian]

South Africa should be too strong and too experienced in this one. However if Japan can control the tempo of the game they can give themselves a real chance of providing another upset. Would be amazing for the tournament and for rugby if Japan could go deep in this tournament.

 

[ncurd]

This thread should be called 'always remember Brighton 2015'

Seriously though SA should have this one in the bag but they should of done in 2015 and Ireland should of done this year (always felt the Scots were in trouble against a host nation). I wouldn't be surprised if Japan won but I do think SA will absolutely spoil their party. Hubris of thinking it will be a cakewalk will be their undoing and this shouldn't be the case.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I don't know if SA have this in the bag.

Japan style of play should thrive in the home game advantage.
SA will have a massive advantage up front BUT Japan will move them about a lot and they have been extremely clinical outside the Russia game.

Japan need to be aiming for 20 points to give them a chance of a win. Anything less and SA will win 100%.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm pretty confident. Japan got a ton of go-forward and just about dominated contact against Scotland and near enough parity at the set piece. Every other real and possible factor aside (form, home town advantage, current refereeing trends) we *should* out-muscle them.

One might argue Japan is in better form than Ireland are but ITO defense I think we as a team are much better equipped to deal with Japan's running game than we would've been dealing with Ireland's kicking game. Also ITO attack I think Ireland's defenses are more able to contain us as our game is based on winning the collision. Bullet dodged there IMO.

Hoping for Barnes here but TBH we should be able to get up here in any case. The conspiracy theorist in me is expecting a French referee. That said Garces/Poite are known quantities. We have to learn to adapt.

 

[User1245]

As dynamic and gutsy the Japanese team is, they have clear weaknesses:

• In the set piece - Especially the lineout. Scrum was shaky against the Scots and SA could possibly have the best scrum in the world at the moment
• Tight phases - Ball retention is great but they rarely win the physical contest. Scotland were tackling them backwards and the Boks will doubly effective. Also their mauling is not great. Scotland made their rolling maul defense look better than it is

It goes without saying that the only way they'd win this game is by drawing the Boks into a high tempo match. That is very unlikely to happen.

I predict the Boks will keep play in the tight loose and the set piece for the first half and rack up a big score before half time. Obviously the Japanese are not a team who let a more fancied team dictate proceedings but I don't see them containing this Springbok team.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

This thread should be called 'always remember Brighton 2015'

Seriously though SA should have this one in the bag but they should of done in 2015 and Ireland should of done this year (always felt the Scots were in trouble against a host nation). I wouldn't be surprised if Japan won but I do think SA will absolutely spoil their party. Hubris of thinking it will be a cakewalk will be their undoing and this shouldn't be the case.

I don't think 2015 has anything to do with it TBH. That was a pool game where we sent a B team, no combinations whatsoever, no game plan (Japan picked off our one off runners by gang tackling), the Eddie Jones factor (our teams have traditionally struggled against his teams), the Poite factor (we have a horrendous record under french refs in general). And in the greater scheme of things the fixture was a dead rubber.

This is a QF. I certainly think we won't thump them like we did in the warm up but barring the unthinkable we are good for a 15 point margin IMO.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Be interesting to see how Japan handle the pressure of this game - they didn't look great in the opening game, and fell off pretty drastically against Scotland in the 2nd half.

That said - realistically just getting to the Quarters is a massive achievement so maybe they won't feel that much pressure as everything from now on is just cherry on the cake.

I think South Africa will win this pretty handily, though

 

[TRF_heineken]

I don't think 2015 has anything to do with it TBH. That was a pool game where we sent a B team, no combinations whatsoever, no game plan (Japan picked off our one off runners by gang tackling), the Eddie Jones factor (our teams have traditionally struggled against his teams), the Poite factor (we have a horrendous record under french refs in general). And in the greater scheme of things the fixture was a dead rubber.

This is a QF. I certainly think we won't thump them like we did in the warm up but barring the unthinkable we are good for a 15 point margin IMO.

That was also our very first match in the tournament, and we didn't have a warm-up prior to the tournament like we did this time. This is also a knockout match, and I suspect that teams will be less risky in play. Also we have had a good week and a half of rest/preparation, and it looked like Japan had some real tired bodies out there in the second half.

Also, I think the Springboks are one of the fittest teams at this tournament, and I think other teams have underestimated the gas that is left in the tank by our big guys. Like PSDT, against Canada he played the full 80, and in the 69th minute we made a kick downfield from our own 22, and PSDT was running full speed after that ball, like it was the first minute of the game.

Again, it seemed like we took our foot off the gas in the last 3 games we played, and I have a suspicion that held back a bit in what we can do.

 

[unrated]

@TRF_stormer2010 you are right if we get a French ref then we need to adapt but maybe it's better we get them for this game than a semi against Wales or Final against NZ because I don't know if we can overcome the 15 point handicap they bring to the table against such quality opposition

 

[TRF_heineken]

@TRF_stormer2010 you are right if we get a French ref then we need to adapt but maybe it's better we get them for this game than a semi against Wales or Final against NZ because I don't know if we can overcome the 15 point handicap they bring to the table against such quality opposition

This.

Although, there has been 4 referees that has been better officiating the matches than the french referees in this tournament, and it seems like the french referees were weed out a bit at the end.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

@TRF_stormer2010 you are right if we get a French ref then we need to adapt but maybe it's better we get them for this game than a semi against Wales or Final against NZ because I don't know if we can overcome the 15 point handicap they bring to the table against such quality opposition

Certainly rather this than the next, yes.

The only place we can really adapt is at the breakdown. Acknowledge its not going to be clean and commit more bodies for securing our own ball, maybe even start to take advantage of the erm.. alien interpretations ourselves.

At scrum time maybe just look to keep it stable on their put ins rather than attack opposition scrums because if it goes down the French seem to penalize the defending team regardless of the actual scrum.

Also, our bigger boys will have to watch those shoulders and possible high tackles that might creep in if only due to the height discrepancy between the two squads.

 

[bushytop]

So, as much as every neutral would love to see the cherry blossoms dream continue... sadly I think here is where it will come to an end. Love the history of this tie and think that the atmosphere around this game will be magic but I just think the saffas will muscle their way to an early lead of around 3 scores and although Japan will play themselves into the game and maybe even get it back close at some point... the bok's exceptional bench will come on and seal the deal.

 

[Johnny Storm]

The Bok side going into the Japan game in 2015 was very under-cooked. They also appeared to have little practice and preparation before the game after they arrived in the UK - I saw lots of social media posts of them playing golf and hanging out on the Brighton promenade etc in the days before the game. They just didn't seem focused.

This time around I think Japan are going to struggle. SA have a very strong defence - granted, the All-Blacks found some holes, but Japan will struggle to penetrate it.

If we can dominate the set-pieces, and keep the penalty count down, then SA should win.

I hope Reinach starts instead of Faf, - his performance against Canada can't be ignored by Rassie.