Stormers into the finals series

[TRF_stormer2010]

How are we looking going into the home stretch and what can we expect?

Its been a bit of a mixed bag this season but the last bit of the season we've struggled. I'm not sure exactly what has gone wrong other than injuries at 10 and 12. We seem to have been found out and/or our confidence has been down since the loss at home to the Lions.

Anyone know if we can expect either of Rob du Preez r JL du Plessis back for the home stretch? Lleyds added little at 10 against the Blues and Coleman even less against the Sharks. We need one of our two 10s available to stand any chance of getting passed the QFs. At 12 I am hoping either of DDA or JDJ can recapture some form of old. Probably a tad optimistic. That and our defense needs to be on point for the whole 80 which we only managed in one game this season.

We will likely end in position 3. The Brumbies are hot on our tails but I think our toughest games are behind us and we have a two point lead on them. The game against the Bulls in Pretoria is the only one I see us potentially dropping but then I can't see the Brumbies top the Chiefs and we should take away points from facing the Sunwolves at home and the Cheetahs. That puts us against position 6 which will come from either of the Highlanders or Chiefs unless the Hurricanes have a torrid run in or the Sharks keep going stronger into the lead up to the finals (3 points behind the Highlanders and Chiefs both ATM while the 'Canes are ahead of them by 3). Seeing as the Chiefs have a game in hand over the Sharks and Highanders and I don't expect the wheels to come off the Hurricanes I have the Chiefs at 6 and a grudge match in Cape Town.. which TBH I expect they'd be heavy favorites for seeing as we played at full tilt with our best erformane of the season to barely beat them and we have men down and off form whereas they will have a few back they didn't have then (Cane, TNW, Messam if I recall correctly). Should be a good match never the less.

IIIF we manage to beat the Chiefs we will have to either travel to Jo'Burg or face a Highlanders side already in SA and fresh in confidence having toppled the Lions in their den. Personally I'd fancy our chances better vs the 'Landers in Newlands than the Lions away so I am backing the 'Landers v the Lions and the Sharks vs the Crusaders. That is assuming the Crusaders go the distance and don't drop their derby matches. I expect Ackermann will rue sending a sub par team to Argentina for a second season straight as at home the ***le is their's to lose (even if they seem a gear down from their form of last year).

So, yes, that is my crystal balling. I am sad to say my head is telling me the QFs is as far as we will go or even deserve to go as I have us at 8th in a fair format;

1 Crusaders
2 Hurricances
3 Lions
4 Chiefs
5 Highlanders
6 Sharks
7 Blues
8 Stormers

No Brumbies for me.

 

[TRF_heineken]

How are we looking going into the home stretch and what can we expect?

Its been a bit of a mixed bag this season but the last bit of the season we've struggled. I'm not sure exactly what has gone wrong other than injuries at 10 and 12. We seem to have been found out and/or our confidence has been down since the loss at home to the Lions.

Anyone know if we can expect either of Rob du Preez r JL du Plessis back for the home stretch? Lleyds added little at 10 against the Blues and Coleman even less against the Sharks. We need one of our two 10s available to stand any chance of getting passed the QFs. At 12 I am hoping either of DDA or JDJ can recapture some form of old. Probably a tad optimistic. That and our defense needs to be on point for the whole 80 which we only managed in one game this season.

We will likely end in position 3. The Brumbies are hot on our tails but I think our toughest games are behind us and we have a two point lead on them. The game against the Bulls in Pretoria is the only one I see us potentially dropping but then I can't see the Brumbies top the Chiefs and we should take away points from facing the Sunwolves at home and the Cheetahs. That puts us against position 6 which will come from either of the Highlanders or Chiefs unless the Hurricanes have a torrid run in or the Sharks keep going stronger into the lead up to the finals (3 points behind the Highlanders and Chiefs both ATM while the 'Canes are ahead of them by 3). Seeing as the Chiefs have a game in hand over the Sharks and Highanders and I don't expect the wheels to come off the Hurricanes I have the Chiefs at 6 and a grudge match in Cape Town.. which TBH I expect they'd be heavy favorites for seeing as we played at full tilt with our best erformane of the season to barely beat them and we have men down and off form whereas they will have a few back they didn't have then (Cane, TNW, Messam if I recall correctly). Should be a good match never the less.

IIIF we manage to beat the Chiefs we will have to either travel to Jo'Burg or face a Highlanders side already in SA and fresh in confidence having toppled the Lions in their den. Personally I'd fancy our chances better vs the 'Landers in Newlands than the Lions away so I am backing the 'Landers v the Lions and the Sharks vs the Crusaders. That is assuming the Crusaders go the distance and don't drop their derby matches. I expect Ackermann will rue sending a sub par team to Argentina for a second season straight as at home the ***le is their's to lose (even if they seem a gear down from their form of last year).

So, yes, that is my crystal balling. I am sad to say my head is telling me the QFs is as far as we will go or even deserve to go as I have us at 8th in a fair format;

1 Crusaders
2 Hurricances
3 Lions
4 Chiefs
5 Highlanders
6 Sharks
7 Blues
8 Stormers

No Brumbies for me.

Well, let's look at your crystal ball first. The Brumbies, Stormers, Lions and the Crusaders are automatically part of the QF's. They are the top teams of the conference, and go through because of that. Then it's the Sharks, Hurricanes, Chiefs and Highlanders who take up the Wild Card spots. And with only 3 games left for each team, I think it's safe to say that this will be the top 8 with no other team having enough points to catch-up.

As for the Stormers, yeah you have been marred with injuries at Fly Half especially, but then again, it seems to be a curse of the Stormers. This exact same thing happened a couple of years ago, and at one stage you had Dewaldt Duvenage as your fly half. Your biggest issue is that it seems like Fleck and co. has a few favourites which IMHO are below par yet still get picked. Why Coleman is still selected is beyond me, he's a worse fly half than what Earl Rose was. Why not pick Willemse??? He was the standout flyhalf last year at Craven Week, the Stormers fought hard to keep him in Cape Town as the Bulls was pursuing him, yet he keeps on playing for the WP in the SS challenge. Now he got selected for the Baby Boks, and I think he and Bosch will be great together. With that said, Willemse will be back in SA by the time the Stormers play their next match, and if none of the other fly halves are back from injury, I would pick Willemse, he's had a debut for the Stormers already, so why not give him a chance...

 

[unrated]

No one wants to face the Crusaders.
There are inter NZ matches coming up.
Crusaders vs Highlander's which the Highlanders will probably lose.
Chiefs next go up against the Hurricanes where the Chiefs will probably lose.

But both these teams also play against Australian opposition in the Reds and Brumbies.
The Chiefs and Highlander's will probably end up with 49 log points (50 with bonus points).

The Hurricanes could also easily end up 8th if they lose both their games against the Chiefs and Crusaders.
The Sharks can reach a best position of 6th place if they win both their remaining games regardless of other results.
But the last thing we want is two SA sides battling it out in the quarters.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Didn't know you disliked the Brumbies so much!
You are changing the rules just to leave them out.

My take.
1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Stormers
4. Brumbies
5. Hurricanes
6. Chiefs
7. Highlanders
8. Sharks

(the order between 5th and 7th might change, rest are set).

1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Chiefs
4. Hurricanes

1. Lions
2. Hurricanes

1. Lions

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

@TRF_heineken , Fleck went to Lleyds and then Coleman and even at 12 we have seen all sorts of men other than Willemse. I can't see Fleck pick Willemse at 10 unless he has a sensational time with the Junior Bokke. I am still holding out hope either Rob du Preez or Jean-Luc du Plessis are available but can't find anything regarding their situations.

@Cruz_del_Sur , LOL, I have the top 8 exactly as you have it there but my thoughts ran along the lines of that IF all teams were to face each other once in a round robin and there were no seats reserved I expect the Brumbies would be out of the play-offs. I know hypotheticals carry no value but couldn't help myself.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

(the order between 5th and 7th might change, rest are set).

Positions 1 and 2 are far from set. There's a good chance the Crusaders will lose to either the Landers or Canes, in which case the Lions will most probably take the no.1 spot.

 

[Larksea]

ok so the crusaders beat the highlanders
chiefs beat the canes.
The lions have the sunwoulves... which should be 5 points and then away to the sharks which is more interesting but I expect they should still win that.

I think that basically means that the crusaders do need to beat the hurricanes in the final round to secure #1 even a losing bonus point wont be enough. I hope they do. It would be a travesty if they aren't #1 considering how much harder it i in the NZ conference.

But I think they can do it.
Chiefs should beat the Brumbies at home. It will be a critical game for them as losing it would mean travel to SA for the finals and winning gives them a rematch against the brumbies which they should win.

1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Stormers
4. Brumbies
5. Chiefs
6. Hurricanes
7. Highlanders
8. Sharks

the big thing is this june break just before the finals. Its going to be hard for teams to maintain their form... The teams that can do that will profit.

but it does seem like 5th and 6th are the only to places not set in stone.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

The news on Tuesday was that Jean-Luc du Plessis and Robert du Preez - the two first-choice flyhalves at the start of the year - have both been ruled out for the rest of the season.

So there go my hopes. We needed either of our halves and a fit (and firing) De Allende if we were to have a go to progressing further.

 

[The Jones Boy]

You shouldn't be allowed in the finals unless you have 40+ points at the end of the round robin series.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

We'll have that. I think we deserve to be there more so than the Brumbies at least.

 

[The Jones Boy]

We'll have that. I think we deserve to be there more so than the Brumbies at least.

Most definitely