Super Rugby - As it stands, who's good?

[SomeOke]

So we're roughly a third through Super Rugby and I thought it might be a nice time to do a little bit of a summary, ironically it does feel like despite being 8 rounds in their are still a lot of questions to be answered.

I think it's fair to say that the NZ franchises other than the Blues are still really strong, whether they are slightly weaker than last year, the same level or maybe the rest of the competition has improved remains to be seen.

As for the SA franchises I think it's fair to say that the Sharks and the Bulls have shown encouraging signs but haven't had it all their own way. The Lions and Stormers are probably slightly weaker than last year but it's still a little too early to make that call.
Looks like Lions are still the best in SA but their tour will tell us a lot - as will their away derbies, for now I'd say they are hanging on to their "conference favourite" ***les by a thread. The Sharks started miserably looking flat all through Australia but then suddenly raised their game to unprecedented standards when they entered NZ. Beating the Blues soundly and running the Hurricanes very close indeed.

Stormers sadly just can't defend at all it seems and haven't managed to clinch enough games away from home, my head says a play-off spot will be unlikely this year.

The Aussie teams are even more interesting, I think it's fair to say they are better this year, the Rebels/Tahs/Reds have all put up some big performances and they have managed to dispatch all Saffer visitors thus far, with no SA side winning in Aus yet (and 6/8 games are already played I believe).
The Aus vs Kiwi games will be extremely telling as if even a few victories can be snatched I think it's fair to say the Aussies have genuinely improved.

I encourage you guys to try ranking the teams, the first 5 or so are extremely easy but after that it gets extremely difficult. We're at the stage in the competition where you feel like almost every team could either be in the top 6 or the bottom 3.

 

[saulan]

Hurricanes
Chiefs
Crusaders
Highlanders

Lions
Rebels
Blues
Waratahs
Sharks

Then from here I am very uncertain, but will have a go:
Stormers - Brumbies
Jaguares
Reds - Bulls
Sunwolves

I think the Jaguares have played most of their matches in SA and generally play well at home, I back them to beat most of the SA sides there as well as quite a few of the Australian ones.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Well, I have to say I think we will all agree that there is a bit more competition from each conference and not just from the NZ conference. I have to say I am very glad to see the Aussie franchises being more competitive than what they were during Super 18.

The fact that both the Aussie and SA franchises are one less team, has made the competition so much better. But the problem now is that while they are struggling against NZ teams, their derbies are even tougher, and in the end I fear it will be the reason why more NZ teams will be in the playoffs.

The Sunwolves are improving, but they are no better than what the Cheetahs/Kings/Force would have been had they remained in the competition.

The Stormers have now lost their first 2 matches against their local Saffa teams, so it makes me think that they are not as strong as what they looked like the start of the season. While the Sharks who looked horrible a couple of weeks ago, now look like a real threat, and I'm worried about this weekend's game against my Bulls who are punching above their weight IMHO.

For me the Crusaders are the team to beat. They are the defending champions, are winning their away games with clinical execution. The Chiefs, Highlanders and Hurricanes are as always top table contenders. With the Rebels, Sharks and Lions making up the rest of the top table. With all the other teams fighting to avoid the wooden spoon.

Apart from the Sunwolves, and maybe to an extent the Jaguares, every team has what it takes to fight for a place at the playoffs.

 

[InsaneAsylum]

The fact that both the Aussie and SA franchises are one less team, has made the competition so much better.

I agree Heineken, the competition is so much better this year. How has SA reacted to 2 teams moving to Pro12?

Most of us are trying to move on here, but there are still a lot of disgruntled Force fans who are trying to sabotage the ARU, the Wallabies, and the four remaining teams, particularly the Rebels. They so desperately hate the Rebels and want them to fail just to prove a point.

from my perspective I'm lucky to have the Rebels in my home city, results are good so far, crowds are increasing and we have a test vs. Ireland in June. Things are looking up

 

[TRF_heineken]

I agree Heineken, the competition is so much better this year. How has SA reacted to 2 teams moving to Pro12?

Most of us are trying to move on here, but there are still a lot of disgruntled Force fans who are trying to sabotage the ARU, the Wallabies, and the four remaining teams, particularly the Rebels. They so desperately hate the Rebels and want them to fail just to prove a point.

from my perspective I'm lucky to have the Rebels in my home city, results are good so far, crowds are increasing and we have a test vs. Ireland in June. Things are looking up

I think the mood of many has changed a lot from when it was announced that the Cheetahs and the Kings won't play SR anymore to now. A lot of people were angry about this decision, but I think a lot of them has now seen the benefit of this. The Cheetahs have been doing well in the Pro12 and it seems like they will qualify for the playoffs, which I think is a massive positive for the franchise. They even managed to secure contracts of 25 players already, and are busy negotiating with their more prolific players for contracts, this was something the Bloemfontein Franchise always had a problem with, in that the other local franchises always managed to snatch their players. But because of the difference in calendar, this has helped a lot.

Overall, there has been more positives than negatives. The Kings, are on a different path, and seems to be following the plan of developing young black players into more experienced players, which I think has it's benefit of taking the heat off the other franchises regarding quotas, even by just a little bit.

Speaking of the Force, I've seen a few articles the past few months about the Force, and it seems like they are slowly becoming a little South African outpost. Having a South African coach, some seasoned SA players like Peter Grant and Jaque Fourie, and also signing some youngsters...

 

[unrated]

From my point of view the Cheetahs are still losing players all over the place. With Blommetjies to Scarlets the latest. There has still been a steady stream of players that left for other clubs. in the beginning of the year it was towards other Super rugby teams and since the start of the pro14 they have been slowly haemorrhaging players to other pro 14 clubs. Luckily for them these are only end of the season transfers. But i still see them starting with a mostly new squad next year.

If they can get in some pro 14 TV money maybe just maybe they can start to keep their players.

 

[AM_Bokke]

Thanks for starting this thread.

I like Super Rugby for it's compactness. I feel like the long NH seasons really lose momentum in the 2nd half and I have no more appetite for them. I have no clue or care about the AP, Top 14 and Pro 14 seasons right now cause who can remember as far back as when they started?

All that said, the 2nd half of the SR season will really tell us if it's better than last year. A few things must take place:

Jaguares must finish strong. I am pretty sure that they are on track for their worst season yet. With their Australiasia tour still to come I am worried about them. The Jags third season being their worst would reflect poorly on the comp's long term growth potential in my opinion.

SA derbies must be classics. So far, SA teams look good. I would have liked for two more wins out of the Sharks/Stormers/Bulls tours that have already happened but the SA derbies so far have been good. If the derbies in the later half of the season are competitive and have good crowds (25K+) then that will be great.

Sunwolves need to win some games. I was hoping that the Sunwolves would have two wins by now from Aussie competition. They have none. The Sunwolves MUST be a long term project. And since they have been profitable (SA and Aus franchises are not always) then they should stay in the comp. But since so much of the rugby world is a conservative old boys network it always seems that people don't understand the business case for the Sunwolves and want them out of SR. The business case for the Sunwolves is very strong. But they need to win some games to shut up the old boys with narrow minds and little patience. Expansion teams usually take 10 to 15 years to become competive in other sports and those other sports usually have draft systems, free agency and revenue sharing. All things that SR does not have.

Aus fans need to stay happy. So far it appears that Australian rugby fans are happy with the season so far. This is good in that SR needs to do better financially in Aus and Aus fans are extremely fickle about SR. They so want it to be something that it won't ever be. But, the transtasman games were weighted to the 2nd half to help Aus teams to build some momentum. These games need to be good and if an Aus team could have a home semi-final that would be great.

I don't have much to say about NZ. I have no opinion on the Blues fiasco. While it does seem that they need to turn it around a bit for the health of rugby in Auckland I just don't know enough about it.

But I have been impressed by the Chiefs start. I was really expecting them to fall off with the player losses they have had. I think that the rest that Brodie Retalick got with the ABs last year is paying dividends.

 

[AM_Bokke]

It is my understanding that the Pro 14 doesn't have much TV revenue. Super Rugby has more.

And from what I gather from what other people say the new Pro 14 TV deals with the lower subscriber sports channels will result in fewer people watching the games. Which will lessen the sponsorship value for the SA franchises.

I respect what SARU has done to find homes for the Cheetahs and Kings but do they have the local markets to be sustainable in global, 21st century sport?

 

[TRF_heineken]

It is my understanding that the Pro 14 doesn't have much TV revenue. Super Rugby has more.

And from what I gather from what other people say the new Pro 14 TV deals with the lower subscriber sports channels will result in fewer people watching the games. Which will lessen the sponsorship value for the SA franchises.

I respect what SARU has done to find homes for the Cheetahs and Kings but do they have the local markets to be sustainable in global, 21st century sport?

On the Pro14 TV deals, SA can't say much about the deals going on in the NH. But there is definitely an financial boost for SA since the SA teams joined, because prior to their inclusion, the SA public didn't get to watch any Pro14 matches, and are now treated to at least 4 every weekend they play.

For SA rugby, there will surely be an incentive, as they still get their share from Super Rugby, and whatever is coming in from Pro14 is a bonus.

But before we derail this thread completely, let's get back to the topic at hand.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I've not seen as much as I'd have liked but I think the main movers and shakers are:

On the rise:
- Oz sides (reaping short term benefit of cannibalising one of their strongest sides in the Force)
- Bulls - clearly upgraded at coach compared to last year.
- Sharks??? Don't know if those performances in NZ are the real thing, but they were certainly eye opening.

Falling back:
- Chiefs. Losing Rennie, Lowe and Cruden meant they'd take time to transition. Maybe not as much of a drop off as I'd expected but I'd still argue it's a drop off.
- Blues. So inconsistent but increasingly capable of losing to non-NZ opposition in my opinion.

Jury is out:
- I'm not convinced the Sunwolves, Jagaures or Lions have changed their standard all that much from last year despite the perception of regression.
- SA. Kept six sides (which I think will be great in the long run for them) so we haven't seen the short term benefit the Oz sides did.


What all the above means to me is that the top 3 in NZ are still way ahead of the rest, but the bottom two in NZ may be more vulnerable to an upset when playing overseas opposition. I still expect 3x NZ in the Semis minimum, and probably the Lions.