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Super Rugby AU 2021 - Final

Al Bangor

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AU Final - Saturday, May 08 @ Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane
1620361129703.png VS 1620361162107.png
 
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Al Bangor

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I think the Brumbies will win and here's why. The Reds beat the Brumbies twice this season by two points in each game. It's hard to beat a team three times in one season. And it's even harder when the previous two games were so close. I do think it will be another close game, but I've got the Brumbies coming out on top this time. Cheers to a great final. :)
 
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Umaga's Witness

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I think the Brumbies will win and here's why. The Reds beat the Brumbies twice this season by two points in each game. It's hard to beat a team three times in one season. And it's even harder when the previous two games were so close. I do think it will be another close game, but I've got the Brumbies coming out on top this time. Cheers to a great final. :)
Love the random logic. What makes you say it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season? I would have thought that most times that a team has beaten another team twice in a season and then have another game that isnt a dead rubber, that probably they win.
 

Al Bangor

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Love the random logic. What makes you say it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season? I would have thought that most times that a team has beaten another team twice in a season and then have another game that isnt a dead rubber, that probably they win.
I heard Paddy Ryan who recently signed with the San Diego Legion of Major League Rugby say it on a local sports radio show here in San Diego. The host asked his opinion about the AU Final after they talked about his return to San Diego, where he's played before. He also played for the NSW Waratahs of Super Rugby for several seasons (over 100 caps).

1620385188825.png
 
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Umaga's Witness

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I heard Paddy Ryan who recently signed with the San Diego Legion of Major League Rugby say it on a local sports radio show here in San Diego. The host asked his opinion about the AU Final after they talked about his return to San Diego, where he's played before. He also played for the NSW Waratahs of Super Rugby for several seasons (over 100 caps).

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Interesting. I thought you were just picking the brumbies and then coming up with a rationale.

I just don’t see why it would be true, on the face of it it doesn’t make sense. And I doubt he’s done the right numbers, as alluded to in my previous post, if he’s done any numbers at all. Most likely it’s just application of that common fallacy where people think the equivalent of this : you’re unlikely to get three heads in a row when flipping a coin, therefore after the first two heads a third head is now less likely than a tail.

or, he’s thinking about how it’s often the case if there’s a three test series that one team will win the first two and then lose the last one. But that’s also irrelevant, because the team has already won the series so it’s harder to get up for the third test. By contrast, In the case we’re looking at the third game is the most important.

did he offer any justification for his statement?
 

Al Bangor

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Interesting. I thought you were just picking the brumbies and then coming up with a rationale.

I just don’t see why it would be true, on the face of it it doesn’t make sense. And I doubt he’s done the right numbers, as alluded to in my previous post, if he’s done any numbers at all. Most likely it’s just application of that common fallacy where people think the equivalent of this : you’re unlikely to get three heads in a row when flipping a coin, therefore after the first two heads a third head is now less likely than a tail.

or, he’s thinking about how it’s often the case if there’s a three test series that one team will win the first two and then lose the last one. But that’s also irrelevant, because the team has already won the series so it’s harder to get up for the third test. By contrast, In the case we’re looking at the third game is the most important.

did he offer any justification for his statement?
Paddy talked about how teams make adjustments after each game and they get to know their opponents strengths and weaknesses, especially after a close loss. And the Reds beat the Brumbies by only two points each time this season. And that's why I picked the Brumbies to win. I was hoping the Western Force would be in the Final. As you know they improved a lot this season, from 0 wins last year to 4 wins and a playoff game this year.
 
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Al Bangor

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Reds beat the Brumbies 19-16, at the 84:30 mark. Queensland had a 15 to 13 man advantage in the last 5 minutes due to two yellow cards against the Brumbies. A wild game! o_O

 
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Umaga's Witness

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I couldn’t really break down how the reds won that game, they didn’t seem to do a lot, apart from win scrums
 

Al Bangor

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I couldn’t really break down how the reds won that game, they didn’t seem to do a lot, apart from win scrums
Infringement was a problem for the Brumbies, and being down to just 13 men did them in. The Reds took advantage of the Brumbies errors and got the win. Kudos to them!
 
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Woldog

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I couldn’t really break down how the reds won that game, they didn’t seem to do a lot, apart from win scrums
To be honest I struggled to break down how either team was going to win. I was at the game, both teams played like garbage. Brumbies never looked like scoring again after the first try.
 

Umaga's Witness

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Infringement was a problem for the Brumbies, and being down to just 13 men did them in. The Reds took advantage of the Brumbies errors and got the win. Kudos to them!
Yeah clearly being down to 13 men made a difference, I was more scratching my head about how they managed to be in striking distance before the cards, But I guess that was largely due to discipline too.

it was a bit of an odd affair right? Never really got going, was quite stop start without a huge amount of tension, then it came all at once at the end.
 

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To be honest I struggled to break down how either team was going to win. I was at the game, both teams played like garbage. Brumbies never looked like scoring again after the first try.
Yeah, like in my post above, which I started writing before yours arrived, it never seemed to get going. You’re right both teams made mistakes, gave away penalties, left holes in defence, kicked poorly.

the reds midfield was a bit impotent, it was a flook that they won.
 

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Yeah, like in my post above, which I started writing before yours arrived, it never seemed to get going. You’re right both teams made mistakes, gave away penalties, left holes in defence, kicked poorly.

the reds midfield was a bit impotent, it was a flook that they won.
With no Hunter Paisami we simply don't fire, Thorn should have moved Petaia to the centres or even Daugunu to give us some punch.
 

Al Bangor

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With no Hunter Paisami we simply don't fire, Thorn should have moved Petaia to the centres or even Daugunu to give us some punch.
Well, your team has the trophy and in the end that's what matters most. You can buy a banner and put it up on the wall of your man cave as a keepsake. Congrats on the win!
 

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Well, your team has the trophy and in the end that's what matters most. You can buy a banner and put it up on the wall of your man cave as a keepsake. Congrats on the win!
My 2nd Reds grand final I got to see live. My girlfriend was wearing my 2011 jersey covered in all the signatures I got after that game. I would be lying if for the last 10 minutes of that game I wasn't sitting there rubbing the signatures on her back praying to Quade, Digby, Will and James Horwill to give us some of their 2011 magic haha
 

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