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Super Rugby AU 2021 - Final
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<blockquote data-quote="Umaga&#039;s Witness" data-source="post: 1037618" data-attributes="member: 65365"><p>Interesting. I thought you were just picking the brumbies and then coming up with a rationale.</p><p></p><p>I just don't see why it would be true, on the face of it it doesn't make sense. And I doubt he's done the <em>right </em>numbers, as alluded to in my previous post, if he's done any numbers at all. Most likely it's just application of that common fallacy where people think the equivalent of this : you're unlikely to get three heads in a row when flipping a coin, therefore after the first two heads a third head is now less likely than a tail.</p><p></p><p>or, he's thinking about how it's often the case if there's a three test series that one team will win the first two and then lose the last one. But that's also irrelevant, because the team has already won the series so it's harder to get up for the third test. By contrast, In the case we're looking at the third game is the most important.</p><p></p><p>did he offer any justification for his statement?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Umaga's Witness, post: 1037618, member: 65365"] Interesting. I thought you were just picking the brumbies and then coming up with a rationale. I just don’t see why it would be true, on the face of it it doesn’t make sense. And I doubt he’s done the [I]right [/I]numbers, as alluded to in my previous post, if he’s done any numbers at all. Most likely it’s just application of that common fallacy where people think the equivalent of this : you’re unlikely to get three heads in a row when flipping a coin, therefore after the first two heads a third head is now less likely than a tail. or, he’s thinking about how it’s often the case if there’s a three test series that one team will win the first two and then lose the last one. But that’s also irrelevant, because the team has already won the series so it’s harder to get up for the third test. By contrast, In the case we’re looking at the third game is the most important. did he offer any justification for his statement? [/QUOTE]
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