The macro economic discussion thread.

Discussion in 'The Clubhouse Bar' started by Prestwick, Apr 17, 2008.

  1. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    Because Shtove just won't let it lie that he was wrong about Liverpool FC (its not a franchise), here is a whole new thread to talk about economics or as I call it:
    [blink]THE 1st GRAND "WHY SHOTVE IS A SECRET PRO-EUROPEAN WITH NO ACTUAL CONCEPT OF REALITY" THREAD![/blink]

    [/b][/u]
    I declare this thread open! Yay! Yaaay! *clap clap clap*

    Anyway, I'm going to be moving the various posts over here so please bare with me.
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    No, a the distinction is that Liverpool FC is a Limited Company and not a franchise. I don't understand why you keep trying to muddle the issue here. Gillet and Hicks have not had to get permission from the Premier League or the FA to either buy, run or make changes to Liverpool FC and as such, it is not a franchise. :lol:


    Maybe, it all depends on how well they do in the next five years. If they crash out of any major competition and take a hit to their vital TV revenue then they're toast. Its such a high risk operation.

    What you're going to see I think is a good five years of slow growth. You won't have the calamity of deflation like the Japanese experienced but its just going to be painful. Ironically, its the Japanese who are best placed to handle this. Just as they exit their 12 year credit crunch, the rest of the world enter theirs! :lol:

    As for the Euro, I don't think this will accelerate the UK towards what is a highly monolithic, out of date and lethargic currency system which rewards poor short term economic policy and high budget deficits. The Euro was meant to herald a new era of fiscal responsibility, however, the actions of France, Greece and Germany have exposed this as the sham that it is.

    As for the UK, any idea of the Euro being introduced here is sheer lunacy. With the housing market as unstable as it is, any sudden attempt to transfer economic policy to the ECB and remove independence to set interest rates from the Bank of England would cause immediate panic amongst lenders and house owners. Maybe in fifteen or twenty years they might consider it again but right now or even in five years, impossible.
     
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  3. shtove

    shtove Guest

    No, a the distinction is that Liverpool FC is a Limited Company and not a franchise. I don't understand why you keep trying to muddle the issue here. Gillet and Hicks have not had to get permission from the Premier League or the FA to either buy, run or make changes to Liverpool FC and as such, it is not a franchise. :lol: [/b][/quote]

    You're off track: the guys who buy in to a franchise are LLC as well. In fact, they could all be partnerships or sole traders - doesn't matter. What matters is that lenders don't care what business model is involved so long as the assets are a clear target. And what we have now is a rise in the price of credit, which may wreck the arithmetic of all sports business models, whether franchise or direct ownership.
    What you're going to see I think is a good five years of slow growth. You won't have the calamity of deflation like the Japanese experienced but its just going to be painful. Ironically, its the Japanese who are best placed to handle this. Just as they exit their 12 year credit crunch, the rest of the world enter theirs! :lol:

    As for the Euro, I don't think this will accelerate the UK towards what is a highly monolithic, out of date and lethargic currency system which rewards poor short term economic policy and high budget deficits. The Euro was meant to herald a new era of fiscal responsibility, however, the actions of France, Greece and Germany have exposed this as the sham that it is.

    As for the UK, any idea of the Euro being introduced here is sheer lunacy. With the housing market as unstable as it is, any sudden attempt to transfer economic policy to the ECB and remove independence to set interest rates from the Bank of England would cause immediate panic amongst lenders and house owners. Maybe in fifteen or twenty years they might consider it again but right now or even in five years, impossible.
    [/b][/quote]
    Best of luck with that prediction! I'm sure the exporting Japs will be happy with an appreciating currency, just like Germany - especially when US consumers are just figuring out that they've been living in la la land.

    I think you and every housedebtor in the UK are in for a shock. The Square Mile banks ran a mile from the BoE in August, headed directly for Frankfurt - that's what matters to these guys. The ECB looks like the wise head in this crisis - they held firm on interest rate targets while the Fed went in to panic and the Labour government did its best to **** up any credibility that the "independent" BoE possessed.

    Personally, I'm ****** off that I'll be paid in sterling for the foreseeable, because it's headed the way of the dollar and price inflation is getting nasty.
     
  4. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    See thats the point, it isn't a franchise. It has never ever been called a franchise, and never will because guess what? It isn't a franchise. I'm not off track because I've stuck to the bottom-line, end of story, das ende point: it isn't a franchise. I don't care what lenders think, I'm just trying to tell you that it isn't a franchise. It is not a franchise, hey Shtove, its not a franchise. Did anyone tell you about Liverpool FC? Its not a franchise you know. It. Is. Not. A. Franchise. I don't know quite how many times I have to say "it is not a franchise" before you realise that my point was: its not a franchise. Maybe we can make a new game. I could say "its not a franchise", and you could just pretend not to hear me!

    I mean, are you like Bertie Ahern here? I'm the guy telling you that its illeigal to take bungs from weird businessmen in Liverpool and you're the one muddling things by saying "well, if I took the 5pm crossing on the ferry to Liverpool instead of the 3:30pm crossing and if I went disguised as Chandler from Friends then technically you couldn't call it a bribe" :lol:

    Just because the ECB has single handedly failed to stimulate Eurozone growth, stop inflation from going below or above its set target and put any kind of break on overspending and deficit running by any of the Eurozone members (like it was meant to do) doesn't mean that it has a "wise head". The Banks haven't run to the ECB or the Bank of England. They're wary of central banks period and do not like suited men with gauranteed jobs by political appointment telling them what to do, especially when they have little or no power to influence national econmic policy like Wim Duisenberg who just sits around marvelling at the fact that the ECB hasn't really done anything since it was set up.

    So far, the Bank of England has only cut interest rates about three times in eight months. And those rate cuts were quarter percent cuts. The Fed on the other hand has slashed and burned its rates multiple times over a three month period. At the end of the day, no amount of Pro-federalist propaganda is going to disguise the fact that the Bank of England sets interest rates by committee and not by the Treasury. The UK Government can lobby but no more and this is reflected in the (thankfully) very slow way that the UK has cut rates.

    The UK was always going to be in a tough position in terms of price inflation but it isn't going to go the way of the dollar. Rapid interest rate changes would not influence how the City is going to see sterling and to be brutally honest, this situation is neither the fault of the UK and as such it is at the mercy of the international finance markets, exactly like it was with black wednesday in 1992. One good thing about Sterling falling (finally) is that UK business should be able to compete better abroad as it should be cheaper to export. A strong pound in the last 15 years has meant that we have consistently imported more than we have exported.
     
  5. shtove

    shtove Guest

    Enough with the franchise pedantry: if the money runs out, doesn't matter what kind of business your are - because you're no longer any kind of business.
    Eurozone figures are like tablets of stone compared to the fairyland nonsense that's being passed off in the US and UK on employment and inflation. You know those leeches on disability? Depressed my arse - they're actually unemployed! And the monthly cost of servicing an insane mortgage does make a dent in your pocket.

    The UK has ridiculous house prices and unbelievable levels of debt. The £ has dropped a fair bit - as it had to - and there's only way to go from here, although it may be only a few more percent against the euro. No sweat - that sets up a comfortable change over in a few years.

    Duisenberg died in his swimming pool a few years ago - his greatest quote, when asked about lobbying by the banks for interest rate reductions: "I hear but I do not listen." The freaks who are now going bankrupt ridiculed him at the time.

    Get out of debt now.
     
  6. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    You dolt! You were the one going off on tangents about loans and money running out. I was just saying that Liverpool FC is not a franchise.

    Then again, your line of thinking is quite attractive. I'm off down to my local cash strapped Secondary School "franchise" because, hey, if the money runs out, it doesn't matter what it is! It'll always be a franchise, eh? :lol:

    I disagree. Eurozone figures are disputed roughly every time they come out by every country in the Eurozone. The ECB and the European Commission have already had several fall outs with the French and Itallian governments over figures on Eurozone inflation, etc.

    UK figures are as most things in the UK: confusing and evolutionary rather than revolutionary in how they have developed. But both RPI and CPI are researched by the Office of National Statistics and are for the most part accurate. Where you're going wrong is confusing what Government spin doctors produced from figures taken from the ONI and the actual original figures that the ONI itself produces. Like with football advertising and television rights, you're confusing the issue.

    How would a hefty rate cut help solve sky high house prices and the UK's debt burden? Because remember that Eurozone interest rates are at 4% compared to the baseline rate of 5.0% for the UK. That combined with a surging inflation rate of 3.6% and painfully slow Eurozone growth would mean triple trouble for the British economy which confuses me when you say that any change to the Euro would be "comfortable".

    You have to understand that the housing market here (amongst other things) is completely different to that on the continent (as those on the continent are finding out as Brits apply British housing market theory to buying 2nd homes in France and Italy). We buy, we mortgage and we only rent if we seriously cannot afford not to take out even a 100% mortgage. Any green light towards cheaper loans, credit cards and mortages would be fatal in the UK's economic climate for the next decade at least. Any change to the Euro within that period would be far from comfotable.

    Only dynamic thing the guy ever did, Trichet isn't much better, maybe we'll see him jump off of a bridge...

    What a load of rubbish, didn't stop him or any of the other ECB heads bending over to France & Germany. The problem will always be that he is a political appointee which is slightly worse than the Bank of England (they tend to appoint its own Governor in an arcane process which, like most things about the UK, confounds and confuses anyone who has been brought up outside of the UK).

    This means that they have little or no clout to get national governments to do what they want to do, tend to be in a very vunerable position when major national governments are feeling the heat politically from poor economic performance and are reduced to minor window dressing activities in a desperate attempt to try and steer and shape the destiny of fifteen different economies. Would the ECB have a close working relationship with the Financial Services Authority? Or would it shun it and use the apperatus of the grand (and unelected) European Commission to monitor UK financial institutions? Somehow I think Northern Rock might have been the first major UK bank to go bust since the South Sea Bubble if the ECB had been in charge.
     
  7. shtove

    shtove Guest

    You clod!

    The thread is about money in rugby.
    You numpty!

    The US has endless commentators ridiculing official inflation stats, and the same will happen in UK. The ECB is a single remit organisation - price stability - so they don't get in to the nonsense of promoting growth and hence don't have to massage inflation figures.

    It won't! At the moment BoE is in easing mode, ECB in neutral/tightening mode - probably not too long before target rates meet in the middle.

    Anyway, the credit markets are sending a clear message to the UK: days of easy lending are over, so adapt to a lower standard of living with a debased currency, get back to manufacturing and stop worshiping the City.

    It's not going to be comfortable for the people, but the political objections will wither.

    And the housing market is no longer so different, because the mortgage market has just been nuked. That's got nothing to do with the targeting of interest rates by central banks - the Fed effectively has negative rates (you made the point about Japan), but the credit market keeps giving it the two fingers and jacking up the price of credit, and that's because the market is always right.

    Holy Mary Mother of God!

    Central bankers are ... bankers! They only bend over for their colleagues, and the politicos can take a running jump. Unless they too are bankers - Hank Paulson, Treasury Secretary, former head of Goldman Sachs, who sold mortgage backed securities to suckers while taking bets against the very same products.

    And fifteen different economies being shaped? Arse! It's about price stability, allowing markets to go to work on a secure foundation. Central banks aren't divine, they're just supposed to keep a stable currency and make sure there aren't too many thieves in the system. The ECB has tricky judgments to make because of Europe's divergence, but no more tricky than what the Fed has to deal with when considering California v Michigan. The problem with the Fed is they go too far - growth growth growth - when they need to be aiming for stability.

    And haven't you heard? NRK did go bust - a little matter of nationalisation, with deposits guaranteed 100% by the taxpayer courtesy of Broon and Dalek. The ECB was pumping liquidity all over europe, including the UK, when the BoE was dithering over NRK, which couldn't run to Frankfurt because it's not a eurozone bank. Barclays, RBS etc. were able to go to Frankfurt because they operate in the zone. Don't listen to what they say - judge them by their actions.

    That was a massive vote of no confidence in the BoE. When you add that to the suppurating sore of debt that is the UK then I can't see financial independence continuing for much longer.

    Heed my words!

    And stop hijacking this thread. You're a disgraceful megalomaniac.
     
  8. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    Yes, but you incorrectly called Liverpool FC a "franchise". I was just making the correction!

    No, it won't. Political parties and the City acknowledge that what the ONS puts out into the public domain is perfectly genuine. What everyone grouses about is what people do with those statistics. You're confusing what the ONS puts out with what the Spindoctors do with those statistics.

    Its a sodding central bank, if you think it was only created with a single remit you are living in cloud cookoo land.

    Wrong. The rate cut by the Bank of England is only really seen as part of a raft of measures to try and ease the pain of the credit crunch. Interest rates in the UK will rise and if anything, the gap between the Bank and the ECB will widen.

    Oh really? Wait for the time when Brown, Cameron and co will possibly have to deal with house reposessions and housing market instability nudging the levels of 1992 and then ask them to propose something as suicidal as going to the public to ask them to vote for the Euro. Cloud cookoo land. They already tried this, don't you remember the ERM? Killed off two consecutive Conservative Prime Ministers? Any view that the UK could convert to the Euro in the next five years is both highly optimistic and highly ignorant of the facts on the ground.

    The housing markets of the UK and Eurozone are different. The UK has the highest number of people who buy to let, the biggest number of homeowners and the biggest number of mortgages in the EU by a large margin. Continental Europe is geared towards renting and the UK is geared towards straightforward home ownership.

    The Central Banks do have something to do with the tanking of the morgage market and the banks and building societies are meant to at least take notice of the bank's base rate. Thats why the Government had all the leaders of the City in to ask them politely to pay attention. But naturally they didn't listen because they know that they have dropped a bollock and frankly, with banks across the world suffering from collossal write downs, they're running scared.

    The market is right...until it encounters extraordinary and irrational modifiers such as human fear. Then it suffers from artificial modification.

    I love this Pro-Federalist arguement that the ECB was only ever set up to just monitor and control price stability and that both it and the Euro honestly isn't a staging post towards a Federal Europe, honest guv'!

    What utter ********. It isn't just about price controls, they and the European Commission are meant to monitor and prevent national governments from overspending and going into deficit and much more. Just droning on to yourself "oh, its all about price stability" is just a delusion, because its much much more than that.

    It is also incredibly naive to say that the ECB pays less heed to national governments like France and Germany than it does to bankers.

    They didn't actually go bust, at no point did they actually file for bankrupcy. Hey! If you're going to be incredibly pedantic about franchises (that don't exist because Liverpool FC is not a franchise) then I can be pedantic about Northern Rock 'going bust' :p

    Also, didn't you hear? Because remember that the ECB was pumping money into the markets in partnership with the Fed, the Bank of Japan and..oh hey! The Bank of England as well! Pendantic behaviour over business classifications, naivite over the effects a switch to the Euro would have on the British economy which would make Viceroy of Iraq, Paul Bremner look like a wise old head of the Middle East and now selective editing!
    This started when you became incredibly pendantic and stung because someone pointed out that you incorrectly called Liverpool FC a "franchise" (which it isn't, its a limited company).
     
  9. C A Iversen

    C A Iversen Guest

    Oh god I'm loving this! Please, oh please dish out some more of this grandeur !!! :D

    Rep point to the next person (neither Prestwick nor Shtove) who shares their undying love for this thread, lol!

    I MOCK BECAUSE I CARE.
     
  10. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    I don't think any of us (me included) are taking this thread seriously.

    I'm just cutting and pasting past op-eds from The Economist myself.
     
  11. shtove

    shtove Guest

    Haven't been repped in weeks.

    And Prestwick left out my original post, which is conclusive evidence of his megalomania. If you read that post - and I know you're eager to read every single bit of this thread - you'd see that I'm right and he's just wrong and slightly two-pencils-up-his-nostrils-with-union-jack-underpants-on-his-head insane.

    No offence taken - he's trying to keep his mind of the slaughter of the Fez in Coventry.
     
  12. C A Iversen

    C A Iversen Guest

    I'm just being stupid meself. I love your pseudo-intellectual games of chess. They make my toast pop-up in the morning!
     
  13. Bullitt

    Bullitt Guest

    God dammit, that signature gives me a woodie.

    CA Iversens isn't too bad, either!
     
  14. C A Iversen

    C A Iversen Guest

    Looks like the crowd had a woodie, then let it loose over your saints, in your sig there, Teh Mite!
     
  15. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    On the contary, if people took time to read over every facet of this thread, they'd realise that I am actually right and Shtove is merely trying to get one up over me because he knows that Munster are going to have egg on their face come next Sunday!
     
  16. C A Iversen

    C A Iversen Guest

    Look Westprick, I'm as big a fan of you as the Daily Mail, but when are you going to get to the point and admit your a raging alcoholic with as much grasp on reality as a madman on the control lever of a rollercoaster?

    I'm just wondering about that...........
     
  17. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    Daily Mail?! I'd never sully myself with such right wing, neoconservative, gutter press antics..

    ..now the Daily Telegraph! Now thats a paper!

    EDIT: On a slightly more serious note, you associate Euro-sceptics with right wingers, the BNP, Daily Mail readers, etc.

    Care to name for me the member of the British establishment with the longest running objection to European domination?

    Ardent Trade Unionist, pacifist, maverick Parliamentarian and former Labour Minister under Harold Wilson: Tony Benn.
     
  18. shtove

    shtove Guest

    I KNEW you had daft lefty sympathies! Strewpick, cousin-son of Michael Foot-Stink, late of Hogwarts "I'm British so I shouldn't cry".

    FFS - there's an entire civilisation at stake, under threat from fraud, bullshit and lies. No time to stand on false notions of honour.

    Don't get me started ...
     
  19. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    Don't you mean theres a whole gravytrain at stake, full of fraud bullshit and lies? :D

    And don't knock Tony Benn, I don't agree with some of his views but he did more to defend the independence of Parliament than any other British politician in the last 30 years.
     
  20. C A Iversen

    C A Iversen Guest

    Who's up for sitting beside these two at the pub? Show of hands?
     
  21. Prestwick

    Prestwick Guest

    You wouldn't be able to sit next to us.

    We'd be on stage doing our own comedy set. Haven't you ever seen John Bird and John Fortune on Bremner, Bird & Fortune before?

    Shtove would play George Parr of course...

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