• Help Support The Rugby Forum :

The Playoffs - Who will top the logs and who will lose out!

SomeOke

First XV
TRF Legend
Joined
Jan 17, 2012
Messages
1,630
Country Flag
South Africa
Club or Nation
Stormers
So I know there are still four weeks of Super Rugby to go and it's still very hard to predict how things are going to pan out.
That said if you can't make barely rational, statistically implausible predictions about rugby on this forum, you can't make them anywhere.

Before I get started its a dead certainty at this stage the South African teams will have three play-offs spots, with a minimum of two teams with home quarter finals. This system is generally agreed upon to be unfair and in need of reform and has been made worse by the poor performance of the Jaguares (who pre-season everyone thought would challenge for the top spot of their conference denying SA the extra quarter). I understand this will be part of the discussion but since it has been discussed at length in other topics perhaps this is an opportunity to talk about the situation we are faced with and not the situation that we wish we had.

I'll leave most of the discussion of Aus and NZ to those fans who probably have better insight than I do, but on current form I'd say it's safe to say the Crusaders are the favorites for the New Zealand conference and the number 1 position overall.
After that, it becomes very complicated with a lot of derbies coming up which could potential mix up positions drastically, the absolute worst case for New Zealand is that due to the high amount of derbies, one of the teams gets forced below the 2nd best Australian team and only three Kiwi teams go through. Since the Warratahs play over the next four matches; The Chiefs, Sunwolves, Hurricanes and Blues it is still somewhat in Kiwi hands and considering the relative strength of the Kiwi teams and the inconsistency of the Tahs this year I would guess it would be unlikely they will crack a play-off sport. Conversely the Brumbies seem to have a relatively easy run-in and should secure the top Australian spot in my opinion.

Therefore I think we'll see:
Crusaders
Chiefs
Highlanders
Hurricanes

Go through in that order,with the Brumbies bagging the top Aussie spot and the Tahs losing out. The Blues have a mathematical chance but it would take some run. The Rebels also have a mathematial chance but it would require an even more miraculus run than the Blues would need.



The South African conference will be all about who loses out. Between the Bulls, the Sharks, the Stormers and the Lions one team will drop out and the other three will go through.
For me the Lions are the most likely to top both SA conferences, but it is interesting to note that they have a relatively hard run (Bulls, Sharks, Kings, Jags(A)) and it is still mathematically possible that they miss out on the play-offs altogether. Not my opinion but possible.

The Sharks are on rollicking form but have played one extra game than the Stormers and the Bulls while being 3 points ahead, they have 1 tough fixtures (the lions) and two relatively easy fixtures (Cheetahs and Kings), unfortunately due to their slow start their play-off chances may be determined by the Lions fixture.

The Bulls have one hard fixture (Lions), one potentially tough fixture (Jags away) and 2 easyish fixtures (Cheetahs and Sunwolves), if they win all of their games I think it's safe to say that they will secure their play-off spot, but lose one and it becomes dicey and reliant on other teams and if they lose 2 it might be all over.

Stormers are essentially in exactly the same position as the Bulls, they may have the easiest fixtures on paper (Cheetahs, Rebels, Force and Kings) but that does include a tour of Australasia, not to mention we are in dismal form with zero wins in the last 3 games. If we can man up and win our next four it's hard to imagine us not making the play-offs but if we trip up it might be late.

Overall I'd say we'll get going through:
1. The Lions
2. Stormers
3. Bulls

With an overall log looking something like:
1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Brumbies
4. Stormers
5. Chiefs
6. Highlanders
7. Bulls
8. Hurricanes

Anyway that's my best guess for the final overall log based on fixtures and the system we're operating under (not a power ranking). Thoughts?
 
Crusaders actually have the toughest end to the season so I wouldn't necessarily say that they'll finish first....
 
The problem in making predictions is that one point could be the difference between winning your group and not, which has consequence far beyond just one place.

Look at what happened last week. The Crusaders were in top spot on both the NZ table and the overall log, on the same number of points as the Chiefs who were in fifth.

The Crusaders win without a bonus point, the Chiefs win with a bonus point so they zoom up to first, while the Crusaders slide back four places back to fifth, past three teams.... two of which lost, and one of which was the team they beat!!!!!

This is just one illustration of how ludicrous the current set up is, and how difficult it is going to be to make predictions.
 
There are actually a number of teams that might make it or not. I think its safe to say that NZ will have 4 teams go through. I can't see both 'Tahs and Brumbies getting past the bottom NZ team on the log. The placement of the NZ I'm not going to touch on though its so close.

In the Oz conference its just as close betwee the Waratahs and Brumbies. I don't think both will go through but I can't split the two. I don't think either has a particularly more daunting fixture list, maybe the 'Tahs' are slightly more difficult but both play the Blues and Sunwolves, the Brumbies have the Force and Hurricanes, the 'Tahs the Reds and Chiefs both possibly slightly tougher opposition bu they have 1 point in hand over the Brumbies. Probably I'll give it to the Brumbies simply because they have 1 more win as is and that is the first tie breaker ahead of points difference is it not?

The SA conference is also difficult to predict. I see the Lions as going through by topping the Sharks who are down 1 game and 2 points to the Lions. Its impossible to say who of the Stormers or Bulls might top our log its that close and we might both go through ahead of the Sharks if we win our games but the Bulls have a tough game or two still and the Stormers have been in terrible form since we've lost Etzebth, Vermaak and Du Preez and gained De Allende who is struggling for form but at least he has been slowly improving and Etzebeth is back even if not in pre-injury form yet. Vermaak is out for the entire season but we could see Du Preez back. I'd actualy prefer to see Kolbe at 9 and one of Du Preez or Du Plessis at 15. We need to make changes or find another two gears but Fleck doesn't seem willing to adapt.
 
i wouldnt be surprised if there was quite a shake up in the nz conference with the amount of local derbies.
probably i bit biased because i'm a staunch highlanders supporter but i wouldnt be surprised at all if they end up on top. they have the canes this weekend which will be a tough match but if they come out on top they have two matches you would expect them to win quite comfortably, against the kings and jaguares (both away) and then they have the chiefs in dunedin, if the landers play like they did a few weeks back i dont see why the result would change-especially with the local support.

the crusaders have a very tough run in with the blues, chiefs, rebels and canes. the chiefs and canes offering plenty and could easily go either way. the blues, while inconsistent are not easy beats, know they have to win to have a shot at the playoffs and could be giant killers. Similar situation with the rebels.

the chiefs have the tah's in sydney, you would expect the chiefs to win but they are injury stricken. followed up by the crusaders-a 50/50 match, the reds which should be easy beats and the landers in dunedin.

while the blues are still a theoretical chance, i dont see them making it with a tough run in and their inconsistency.

the canes should make it in considering they are 7 points in front of the brumbies and 6 in front of the tah's. but both the canes and tah's have tough runs in and play each other in a couple weeks. wouldnt be surprised if the winner of that game gets through while the loser misses out. while the brumbies have a relatively easy run in and imo should end up top of the aussie conference

so in short, the landers, chiefs and crusaders are already pretty much through. if the landers continue to play the way they have been they WILL end up top of the table. it hurts to say but i think the waratahs will end up in the playoffs over the canes. their match in syndey will be crucial
 
The SA conferences can still change with regard to who goes through.

The best bet is the Lions, and this coming weekend's jukskei derby will be a good indication of which SA team will top either conference. If the Bulls slip up against the Lions, then the Stormers have a chance to pass them and after the June tests keep the momentum ahead of the Bulls (who could lose against the Jaguares in Argentina).

The Sharks are getting better and better as the season unfolds, and seem to have found that recipe which the old Crusaders teams had, of finishing the season better than when they started. And now with Pat Lambie back and showing some form, could just be the boost they needed.

As for the Australia conference, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Waratahs will end up on top, as they too are starting to play better and better.

In NZ, it's pretty much a toss up atm, and I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to what the pool would look like the end of the regular season, especially with some more derbies coming up. I have been a fan of the Highlanders this season, so I hope they come out on top.
 
If the Bulls can manage to get past the Lions on the weekend things will get interesting in SA.
 
I'm just going to make a prediction:
1 Crusaders
2 Lions
3 Stormers
4 Brumbies
5 Highlanders
6 Chiefs
7 Hurricanes
8 Sharks
 
Yeah it's just so hard to call.

A lot depends on a lot. Like in the NZ conference, Canes v Landers this Friday will have a massive effect. Chiefs v Saders as well etc. Any of the teams (minus the Blues) could top the conference tbf.
 

Latest posts

Top