The relegation run-in

[psychic duck]

The relegation run in for the Aviva Premiership 2012/2013 season with 6 matches remaining. Looks to be very tight. Shame for London Welsh, they look most likely to go down now. Worcester and London Irish look a lot safer than LW or Sale, but still could go down. Bonus Points will be crucial in the matches that LW and Sale lose in these next 6.

Who do you think will go down to the Championship?

9.

Worcester - 27 points (4 wins, 1 draw, Diff -48, For 304)
Remaning fixtures: Wasps (H), London Irish (A), Exeter (H), Saracens (A), Harlequins (H), London Welsh (A)

10.

London Irish - 24 points (5 wins, Diff -122, For 313)
Remaining fixtures: Northampton (A), Worcester (H), Sale (H), Exeter (A), London Welsh (H), Leicester (A)

11.

London Welsh - 22 points (4 wins, Diff - 145, For 284)
Remaining fixtures: Saracens (A), Gloucester (A), Bath (A), Northampton (H), London Irish (A), Worcester (H)

12.

Sale - 19 points (4 wins, Diff -166, For 260)
Remaining fixtures: Leicester (A), Saracens (H), Bath (H), London Irish (A), Gloucester (H), Northampton (A), Wasps (H)


Tie Breakers:
1. Matches Won
2. Points Difference
3. Points Scored
4. Points Scored (in matches between tied teams)
5. Number of matches won excluding the first match, then the second and so on until the tie is settled

 

[LittleGuy]

55% Welsh, 25% Sale, 19 % Irish, 1% Worcester are the odds I'm giving at the moment.

 

[Draggs]

Worcester could beat Wasps and maybe Chiefs.
Not Nots Mk. 1: Worcester, Sale, LW
Not Nots Mk. 2: Maybe Worcester
Sale: Possibly Bath, Wasps

 

[TRF_Olyy]

It's between us and Welsh, I think.
Neither of us have easy run ins, so bonus points will be important - they have a better history of picking these up...
Despite us hitting some decent form, and them free falling, I fear that their 3pt head start could save them.

 

[Teh Mite]

Sale have a horrid run in, even worse then Welsh - Plus Wuss will be away and pretty safe on the last day while Wasps will have eyes on a playoff berth and gunning for it - On a dry pitch with the most effective backline in the league.

Irish will likely be secured in 10th.

Sale still must be the likely contenders with Welsh worth a cheeky fiver for a betting man.

 

[j'nuh]

I don't think Sale play Sarries?

I think Irish are the safest and I reckon they'll finish 9th. They've only lost one of their last 4 and the three they beat were Wasps, Sarries and Gloucester. They have Worcester, Welsh and Sale at home and I think they'll start each as favourites. However, they have a tiny squad so injuries are their biggest concern.

Worcester need to be wary of relegation now. A loss against Welsh on the last day of the season puts them within 1 point of Welsh, and Sale are starting to pick themselves up, having won more points than anyone else in the bottom 4 over the last 6 matches. I think one win or a few bonus points will make them safe though.

Welsh are my picks to go down. They've picked up 3 points in their last 6 matches, compared to Sale's 13, Irish's 12 and Worcester's 7. Out of their 7 away games to date, Welsh have won once (against a poor Sale team) and only picked up two LBPs. They now face 4 away games. I can't see them getting anything out of Sarries or Glos away, and also doubt they'd get anything out of Bath away. LBP against Saints at home, and winning one of Irish away or Worcester at home is realistic.

Sale have a hard run-in, but are a better team than Welsh. I think Sale are likelier to pick up LBPs, but need to whittle down that 3 point gap. The aim is to win one more game than Welsh over the remaining fixtures. If Welsh win a game, then Sale need two wins. If not, Sale need one.

 

[munstermuffin]

Would it cripple Sale if they dropped? A lot of investment went in to them

 

[Teh Mite]

Would it cripple Sale if they dropped? A lot of investment went in to them

Wouldn't cripple them, I'd expect they'd bounce straight back up - Or would have as Bristol will be odds on favourites to come up next yet the way they're recruiting.

 

[Draggs]

This might shake a few things up;
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_8525846,00.html

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Now that is interesting...
I remember a few years back.we got docked points for the same, and missed out on a playoff spot for it.
Could well save us!


Is previously thought that relegation would be the end of us - Blackhurst/Kennedy looked to be looking for a way out, and without them wed go belly up, but they've recently said they'll stick around if we drop, so I'm more optimistic!

Sent from my HTC Incredible S using Tapatalk 2

 

[LittleGuy]

Welsh lose any thing more than one point and my odds change to 90% them going down.

 

[munstermuffin]

How do clubs fail to recognise these thing or try get away with it

 

[McTallshort]

How do clubs fail to recognise these thing or try get away with it

I think Welsh relised that the player was not registered and actually reported it to the RFU, it might go in their favour

 

[Teh Mite]

A slight hint of irony if Welsh's Premiership adventure ended badly in the courtroom when they needed that avenue to come up in the 1st place.

I'll bet if Rob Andrew has a hand in, he'll do everything in his power to screw the team that sent his beloved Newcastle down.

 

[munstermuffin]

I think Welsh relised that the player was not registered and actually reported it to the RFU, it might go in their favour

I understand that and it seems the team manager was at fault but clubs surely must be used to protocol and correct avenues and how can it happen for 9 games without nothing spotted/said

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Apparently they could be docked up to 45(!) points (up to 5pts per appearance, and he played 9 times).

 

[munstermuffin]

Apparently they could be docked up to 45(!) points (up to 5pts per appearance, and he played 9 times).

I think at max though they only take the point earned so like if they got 20 points out of 45 that is what they'd loose.

 

[duncanb]

Think now impossible to predict who will go until result of hearing re Welsh if they lose points they must be odds on to go;

 

[Teh Mite]

The sad part is now that between Sale and Welsh, whoever goes down will kick and scream out to all and sundry in the media (assuming results don't make it a null point) - Either Welsh will claim they're being punished for something that wasn't their fault or Steve Diamond will do one of his famous smear campaigns about the "cheating exiles" (or something along those lines).

This means for the 2nd season running the relegation scenario will become farcical and it'll play into Fran Cottons grand master-plan of ring fencing the top flight (or even lend weight to his argument for union regulated franchises).

Not good news and a real dampener on what was going to be a hugely exciting climax to the year.

 

[j'nuh]

tbh, if Sale go down with the players they have, I'm not sure there's a person in the rugby world that will have time for what Diamond has to say.