The Ukraine War thread

[Bada-Bing!]

Time for a separate thread suggested by other long time posters on here on 1 year anniversary of the conflict and to stop general Politics thread being clogged up. Until this war some how comes to an end. 🤞

How Russia's 35-mile armoured convoy ended in failure

How Russia's plan to overthrow Ukraine's government ended in embarrassing failure.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Ukraine war: How Putin's fate is tied to Russia's war

Steve Rosenberg looks at why Vladimir Putin set sail in a storm of his own making a year ago.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Fair enough for the standalone thread since this does look like being a multi-year affair.

Ex-President and Putin loyalist (on the moderate wing believe it or not) Medvedev basically alludes to the need to at least partially invade Poland.

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

www.reuters.com

I dont think he believes half the stuff he says about Poland or about Europeans being Satanists. He is probably just posturing to keep himself in the political picture in an increasingly fascistic domestic media environment. Still an ex-President saying this isn't irrelevant and I'm not convinced it's a particularly wise move from Russia to be saying stuff like this. So I'm glad he did. It can't hurt pro-Ukranian solidarity. Decent UN vote with 140+ nations condemning Russia (showing it clearly isnt just NATO).

 

[Bada-Bing!]

For years, Putin didn’t invade Ukraine. What made him finally snap in 2022? | Anatol Lieven

This war is Russia’s fault. But European nations rebuffing Russia during the noughties did not help, says Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

www.theguardian.com

 

[McTallshort]

Fair enough for the standalone thread since this does look like being a multi-year affair.

Ex-President and Putin loyalist (on the moderate wing believe it or not) Medvedev basically alludes to the need to at least partially invade Poland.

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

www.reuters.com

I dont think he believes half the stuff he says about Poland or about Europeans being Satanists. He is probably just posturing to keep himself in the political picture in an increasingly fascistic domestic media environment. Still an ex-President saying this isn't irrelevant and I'm not convinced it's a particularly wise move from Russia to be saying stuff like this. So I'm glad he did. It can't hurt pro-Ukranian solidarity. Decent UN vote with 140+ nations condemning Russia (showing it clearly isnt just NATO).

If Russia tried any funny stuff with Poles they would end up getting chewed up and spat out. Not to mention the fact they would trigger article 5 and get hit with the full weight of NATO. That probably would cause a nuclear exchange given how badly Russia would be mauled

 

[ncurd]

Are we even sure Russias nuclear arsenal would work? Considering how badly their equipment has been in Ukraine.

Not saying it something we want to try.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end?

Five scenarios for the end of the war, from a Russian or Ukrainian breakthrough to a frozen conflict

www.theguardian.com

 

[McTallshort]

For years, Putin didn’t invade Ukraine. What made him finally snap in 2022? | Anatol Lieven

This war is Russia’s fault. But European nations rebuffing Russia during the noughties did not help, says Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

www.theguardian.com

Completely ignores the fact France, Germany, Italy, Austria and Hungary distanced itself from the US and NATO to trade heavily with Russia and in some cases became dependant on its fossil fuels.

Also any move to make Russia central to European "security" would have upset nearly every single former Communist state who viewed Russia as a colonial power who had ruled them for 50 years and why would you have a nation riddled with corruption, had been obstructive in finding peace in the Balkans and had just flattened Grozny as a good and trusted ally?

Crap piece.

 

[McTallshort]

Are we even sure Russias nuclear arsenal would work? Considering how badly their equipment has been in Ukraine.

Not saying it something we want to try.

Probably not. The upkeep of Nuclear weapons is very expensive and very labour intensive. The Russians will be hoping that the budget they spent on their upkeep didn't get blown on coke, hookers and yachts like the rest of its military budget did.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Are we even sure Russias nuclear arsenal would work? Considering how badly their equipment has been in Ukraine.

Not saying it something we want to try.

I think we can very safely say that a large chunk of Russia's nuclear arsenal would not be up to scratch. However we can also say it only needs a tiny portion of it to work to change the world forever. They really are the ultimate double edged sword. on the one hand we haven't had another world war scale conflict, on the other, a mad regime like Putin's or Kim Jong Uns with nukes can just keep pushing and pushing, always threatening nukes if they don't get their way.

Fair enough for the standalone thread since this does look like being a multi-year affair.

Ex-President and Putin loyalist (on the moderate wing believe it or not) Medvedev basically alludes to the need to at least partially invade Poland.

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

www.reuters.com

I dont think he believes half the stuff he says about Poland or about Europeans being Satanists. He is probably just posturing to keep himself in the political picture in an increasingly fascistic domestic media environment. Still an ex-President saying this isn't irrelevant and I'm not convinced it's a particularly wise move from Russia to be saying stuff like this. So I'm glad he did. It can't hurt pro-Ukranian solidarity. Decent UN vote with 140+ nations condemning Russia (showing it clearly isnt just NATO).

Regardless of whether he believes it or not, the way Russian's casually throw around such dangerous rhetoric really shows what a state they are. They are dangerous, irresponsible and pretty ******* deluded if they actually buy any of that. Seems almost like the case of people believing their own propaganda.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Completely ignores the fact France, Germany, Italy, Austria and Hungary distanced itself from the US and NATO to trade heavily with Russia and in some cases became dependant on its fossil fuels.

Because that’s economic and not military defence which is what Nato is for. We know Putin’s Regime are not waging this war for economic reasons, although having China and India to take up slack from cutting off Europe.

Also any move to make Russia central to European "security" would have upset nearly every single former Communist state who viewed Russia as a colonial power who had ruled them for 50 years and why would you have a nation riddled with corruption, had been obstructive in finding peace in the Balkans and had just flattened Grozny as a good and trusted ally?

Crap piece.

He was saying it was an “aspiration” of Putin from the early 90s. Obviously this view became more warped as time went by and helped by the hardline nationalists in his regime.

 

[McTallshort]

Because that’s economic and not military defence which is what Nato is for. We know Putin’s Regime are not waging this war for economic reasons, although having China and India to take up slack from cutting off Europe.

He was saying it was an “aspiration” of Putin from the early 90s. Obviously this view became more warped as time went by and helped by the hardline nationalists in his regime.

How do we know it's not for economic reasons? The areas that Russia is claiming just happen to be the areas where most of Ukraine's heavy industry and fossil fuels are. By controlling the Crimea they control the sea lanes of the black sea, which in turn gives them control of a good portion of the world's wheat and fertilizer production.

Ukraine (like Nigeria) has the potential to be a very rich country: young population, lots of natural resources, good trade links (when the Russians aren't occupying them) and fertile soil. This contrasts greatly with Russia who have natural resources but an aging population and crap soil.

I would suggest that economics are a very real reason for this invasion.

 

[Al Bangor]

Thank you President Biden for going to Kyiv. 👊 Kudos to ALL nations that support Ukraine.

Biden Makes Historic Visit to Wartime Ukraine

Side by side with Zelensky, the U.S. president declares: “We stand here together.”

foreignpolicy.com

 

[McTallshort]

Poland sending 60 of its Twardy variant of the T-72 along with its first batch of Leopard 2s. This is good news for Ukraine. It gives them a battalions worth of tanks on a model the Ukrainians will know how to operate.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

How do we know it's not for economic reasons?

I would suggest that economics are a very real reason for this invasion.

Because Russia’s economy is roughly 14 times smaller than USA. It wants to be in top 3 politically but can't match that even conquering Ukraine.

The economic benefit would be massively outweighed by the political fall out as we have seen.

 

[McTallshort]

Because Russia’s economy is roughly 14 times smaller than USA. It wants to be in top 3 politically but can't match that even conquering Ukraine.

Thats true but having control over the wheat and fertilizer production of Ukraine makes them a very real political player. They did have something similar with gas and oil and look at the impact that's had on global prices.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

That’s the thing we have to remember in Putin’s mind Ukraine as a state shouldn’t exist, it’s people are not Ukrainian but are one people with Russians. That’s how he justifies his “special military” operation. He is Russia and Russia is him. His main motives aren’t economic (although they play a role) but political power and making Russia an Eurasian and in turn Global superpower once again.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The Inquiry - What is Putin’s plan now for Ukraine? - BBC Sounds

Russia is thought to be preparing a new offensive in Ukraine – what could that look like?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[McTallshort]

One of Russia's very expensive AWCS planes was downed over Belarus last night. Apparently it was caused by a drone of operated by a fringe organisation in Belarus who want the current Kremlin toady out.

If this is true it's a serious asset loss to the Russians

 

[McTallshort]