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The USA's prospects (split thread)

Possibly, but there is certainly more high profile American Samoans playing NFL than rugby. Guys like Haloti Ngata. If you are American Samoan you are 56 times more likely to play in the NFL than you are as anyone else.

Yeah I get that, but there are only limited spots available in pro teams. It's bound to flow over and then these guys will slowly rather look at Rugby than NFL.

We have seen a lot of rugby players switching over to NFL from rugby, with very few making it, I wonder if the same will happen the other way around.
 
True.

And my guess is that if Rugby gets the exposure in the USA, a lot of the polynesian people might become involved as a form to live out their heritage.

Well, I wouldn't know much about American Samoa and polynesians living in the USA in general but a population of 550 000 which one would assume has gotten some measure of exposure to rugby is double that of Samoa. The thing though is are the coaching and structures in place there for the ~10 to 18 year olds? I mean, why havn't we seen more Samu Manoa's from the USA? Aren't they rather Americanised and rather atraacted to the NFL?

It'll only help you so much in the pro era of rugby having a large population, vast resources and world leading infrastructure if they aren't rugby-specific.
 
Well, I wouldn't know much about American Samoa and polynesians living in the USA in general but a population of 550 000 which one would assume has gotten some measure of exposure to rugby is double that of Samoa. The thing though is are the coaching and structures in place there for the ~10 to 18 year olds? I mean, why havn't we seen more Samu Manoa's from the USA? Aren't they rather Americanised and rather atraacted to the NFL?

It'll only help you so much in the pro era of rugby having a large population, vast resources and world leading infrastructure if they aren't rugby-specific.

I think we won't see the structures that are now in place, take effect on that age group as much as it will in a few year's time.

When I was in Florida in 2006 doing some work in the Boca Raton and Ft. Lauderdale area. They only started with the implementation of a rugby programme at the schools. And at that stage it was in the high schools only. I remember that ESPN 7 even broadcasted the first training session the kids had on the field.
 
Well, I wouldn't know much about American Samoa and polynesians living in the USA in general but a population of 550 000 which one would assume has gotten some measure of exposure to rugby is double that of Samoa. The thing though is are the coaching and structures in place there for the ~10 to 18 year olds? I mean, why havn't we seen more Samu Manoa's from the USA? Aren't they rather Americanised and rather atraacted to the NFL?

It'll only help you so much in the pro era of rugby having a large population, vast resources and world leading infrastructure if they aren't rugby-specific.

Samu is a good case and point of what could be. I think either his old man or uncle was a decent player, and he played at school. Bearing in mind, this was 15 years ago, so its hard to judge what the quality may have been. Decent grounding though.

Either way, he was out of the game, and then playing amateur rugby in San Fran. In his first season in the Premiership, he was named in the Dream Team. Yes, he's an outlier, and yes, there will be the problem of the positions where physical gifts aren't needed (9 & 10, most significantly), but he went from an amateur setup at a time when little development existed to knocking seven bells out of the Prem.
 
To be fair Ireland were ranked 3rd in 2003, and third in 2006, lowest they've ever gone is 9th. I's not a massive leap to think a team that was 3rd 10 years ago would be pushing top 4 a decade on.



To sevens, not 15's you don't develop world class locks, props and hookers playing Sevens.

I didn't say "who would have predicted Ireland would be in the top four, ten years from now, ten years ago" I said ranked number two in the world,: as you've pointed out, they've got as low as ninth, so they could just as well have been there, due to lack of consistency; their ranking on this day in 2005 (ten years ago), was seventh, and they were more than seven ranking points adrift of second placed South Africa. This is comparable with predicting Argentina (in terms of the gap in ranking points between them and Ireland) will be the number two ranked team in ten years time; that's certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. Anyway, the point is, you can't accurately predict what's going to happen ten years from now, and that the relative strengths of teams don't stay constant, so while the States could rise in strength, some of the Celtic teams could also wane.

With regard to the Sevens, I see it as the catalyst for increased interest/participation in rugby in the US; I can see a flow on effect into the fifteens game, with locks possible coming from a basketball background, Props and Hookers from NFL etc.
 
With regard to the Sevens, I see it as the catalyst for increased interest/participation in rugby in the US; I can see a flow on effect into the fifteens game, with locks possible coming from a basketball background, Props and Hookers from NFL etc.

Basketball is a very different game tbh. Its a game that can be played in a court and is still strong in areas that are a little more down and out than those where rugby is getting strong. Massive generalisation on my part, but rugby is strong in affluent areas, especially as they are where junior football is on the wane. Football provides all shapes and sizes over there. 6'6 110kg with good hands? Covered. 6'3 with anger management issues? Check. 6' with a good vertical leap and olympic speed? Got it.

Problem comes when you need a flyhalf. They got nowt.
 
A country like the US shouldn't have a problem in poaching promising young 10s from countries where the sport is a mainstay though. The economic and socio-political situation in SA means people are considering jumping ship even without a life jacket. Offer them a chance to study in the US while playing rugby and you have a very tasty looking carrot. Forgive my mixed metaphors, please.
 
A country like the US shouldn't have a problem in poaching promising young 10s from countries where the sport is a mainstay though. The economic and socio-political situation in SA means people are considering jumping ship even without a life jacket. Offer them a chance to study in the US while playing rugby and you have a very tasty looking carrot. Forgive my mixed metaphors, please.

Yeah, it's inevitable. One of my friends qualified for his green card last month and he used to play for the Blue Bulls Academy. He's going to stay in Texas somewhere, and play some club rugby. He was a pretty decent fly half in his day.
 
Yeah, it's inevitable. One of my friends qualified for his green card last month and he used to play for the Blue Bulls Academy. He's going to stay in Texas somewhere, and play some club rugby. He was a pretty decent fly half in his day.

I guess that'll be the way it goes. If they've managed thus far without any real quality, then a half decent import would certainly be of benefit.

But, for that to happen, I'd argue you'd either need a professional standard 10 - as in a European or RC-nation - to have an American parent knocking around, or a professional league.
 
Personally, I do think you can have a decent stab at predicting where a country will be in 10 years time. Most of the players who'd be involved are a decent way through the system, if not actually playing. I can tell you whispers of who to look out for in England U18, and I bet people here can tell me the same about their countries. You hear whispers of who's got strong age groups coming, who's academy is improving and so on. Maybe not as fine as guessing who'll be number 2, but you know who will be within the ballpark and who won't be. I've seen people using Wales being a third seed for the World Cup being an example that you can't tell; I think everyone at the time knew that was a blip that would look somewhat silly/cool near the time.


Anyway, to turn on my tail for a moment, here's what the US do have going for them -

An increasingly strong pool of European teams desperate for talent.

*** Lamositele is the standard bearer for this. He's a tighthead prop, he's only 20 years old and Saracens have already given him a pro debut. I don't know whether he'll make it there, but he is getting as good a rugby education as he can ask for. His chances of making it somewhere are as good as just about anyone in the rugby world.

Cam Dolan will also do the US good as well I reckon. Got a contract from Northampton at 23, might not have played much for them but he's done well enough to get a contract with Cardiff. Scott LaValla did time in the AIL and with Ulster Ravens and is now doing well with Stade Francais.

And so on. When clubs like Bayonne, Biarritz, Lyon, Perpignan, Bristol, and Yorkshire, have players like Adam Whitelock, Ngwenya, Bonnaire, Nalaga, Porical, Henry Tuilagi, Marty, Evans, Henson, Peel, and Walker, you know there's an incredible squeeze on resources. Pro rugby needs more resources.

Rotherham have six players taken from the Irish academy system. Virtually every French club has a Georgian prop and a Fijian wing. If US colleges can produce a sufficient level of talent, then visa issues aside, they'll be welcomed with open arms - and if they show they're good enough younger, they'll be taken younger. If someone points out the next Samu Manoa out to Saracens aged 16, then Saracens will try and sign him and get him a scholarship at one of England's big rugby schools.

The USA can be the next Argentina; a decent international side that competes well on the back of a decent domestic system feeding players into Europe. Maybe the US could look into entering a team into the Currie Cup, maybe in conjunction with Canada if they had to. Is the tap on full enough blast to really create a team capable of beating Scotland and Italy (assuming they stay stable) in say ten years? I'm not sure on that one, but the flow will only increase.

And, while there are problems with exporting all your best into the maw of European club rugby, the fantastic thing is doesn't cost the US a dollar beyond what they're doing already. And to increase what they're doing, all they need to do is invest in youth rugby, which they're already doing.


I do believe that's their best route to success. 7s will drag away players as well as create them, players qualifying on residency will spend 3 years playing a level of rugby too far below the standard required (assuming they don't increase it) and a pro league capable of producing good enough players will take a lot of time. The colleges will be their actual pro league and it will feed Europe until such time rugby seems a good enough business case for America to sit at the table.

And that is when the world will change. But I give that 15 years or so minimum, probably more like 20, maybe more - and the rest of the world will keep marching forwards to make that harder in the meantime.

p.s. Seriously, I think the 7s thing is overrated. Look at Isles: he took up rugby at 23. He gains a pro contract aged 24, but gets nowhere as he's still learning the game, then returns to 7s to concentrate on the 2016 Olympics, which is why people take up 7s. He might return to pro rugby aged 26/27 - lets say it takes him a year to learn the game to full standard - so from 27/28 he's an option for the US rugby team, only he returns to 7s again for another Olympics post World Cup. The US 15s side get really very little out of that.

Others will do better, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the basic experience of most guys the US attracts to play 7s.
 

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