Top 15 world rankings predictions for 10 years time?

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Have a look at what we were saying about RSA in late 2018, early 2019.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Have a look at what we were saying about RSA in late 2018, early 2019.

Not a whole lot of looking at the previous 10 - 15 years to predict the next. Going forward for the forseeable, I'd guess:

Constantly in the top 4 - France and SA;
Constantly in the top 6 - Ireland and NZ;
Constantly top 8 with trips to the top 3 and possibly higher - England and Argentina
Constantly top 10 with potential to hit the 4-5 spots - Scotland and Oz; and
Wales and Italy should regularly be above Georgia and Fiji, both just have way more opportunities to produce players, attract eligible foreign talent and play enough high quality rugby to keep ahead.

After that I, admittedly, don't know enough, I'd guess that maybe the USA can break in to the top 12 with a world cup buzz. Can't see anyone else doing it in the next 10 years without those sides regressing.

 

[mdaclarke]

Bumping this to see how we are going.


Forgot about this


I forgot that I made a second prediction. Not great!

Hopefully Wales will get better soon :-(

 

[mdaclarke]

I realize I never did a rankings prediction. I'll resist an exact order and go with 'stock up, stock down' after eight years from the initial prediction.

Stock Up:

South Africa - It feels like the game is truly becoming the sport for ALL of SA.
Ireland - They are the industrious, intelligent brother in the dysfunctional Celtic household.
NZ - South Africa's success is driving them insane and leading to drastic moves: i.e., removing residency rules. But unlike most other unions, they genuinely care about winning at all costs.
France - Best Club Game. Biggest Stars. Biggest Rugby Economy. And unlike it's rival nation, it's not actively trying to destroy it's society.
Argentina - Despite all the challenges, they are like Rocky. You can knock them down, but you can't knock them out.
Italy - Same as above.
USA - Every year MLR survives is 1 year closer until RWC 2031.
Fiji - They will make a semi before we die.

To be determined:

Australia - The next 36 months will define the future of Oz rugby for 25 years.
Scotland - Stardust remains, but pathways remain immature and new residency rules means Saffa imports are much rarer.
Japan - Does Eddie have 1 more Ace up his sleeve?
Georgia - Desperately needs more Tier 1 games. Could be become the European version of Argentina.

Stock Down:

England - When Aled Walters and Felix Jones left within a fortnight, you know there is something deeply rotten with English rugby. Plus, the country is determined to follow Canada's path to a collapse in living standards.
Samoa/Tonga - No money. No local clubs. Lots of corruption.
Wales - Samoa and Tonga whisper to each other about how dysfunctional the Welsh are.
Canada - No other country has killed its game more thoroughly than America's little brother.

"Wales - Samoa and Tonga whisper to each other about how dysfunctional the Welsh are."

It is unbelievable how dysfunctional Welsh Rugby is at the moment.

 

[Rugbyfan564]

English and Aussie rugby have the same issue in that the education system that creates the majority of the players is changing fast - in its cost, demographics of students and what sports are played. Dementia crisis will affect all for of the Lions nations going forward as well.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

My prediction in 10 years
1) England
2) New Zealand
3) South Africa
4) Australia
5) Ireland
6) Argentina
7) Wales
8) Scotland
9) France
10) Japan
11) Georgia
12) Fiji
13) Italy
14) Samoa
15) Spain

I don't have much hope for USA rugby currently, I can see Sevens taking off in a big way though.

I feel I am the most accurate so far

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I reckon being a constant in the top 5 with the odd trip to 2 or even 1 is more than attainable for Ireland over the next 10 years at least.

England, New Zealand, South Africa and France are the only countries currently in the top 10 that either are better than us (NZ) - Are at a similar level as us and have been for much of this RWC cycle (Eng, SA) - Or have the resources so that a few drastic changes would quickly have them in a position where they're consistently better than us (France). In reality, those four countries should always and forever be the top 4 (minor hyperbole), currently the IRFU punch smarter than three of them.

Argentina will eventually catch up and get there, I don't know what difficulties they face apart from soccer to really comment but I think, perhaps naively, that they need more than 10 years to be consistently better than us.

Australia have been going backwards and it's snowballing, it's seriously volatile but I think the AFL and NRL are strong enough to keep Aussie Union down, the lustre of international competition is becoming less and less attractive there. But, this is definitely the nation I'm least sure of.

Until Wales get their club game right I don't see them doing as much on the world stage as Ireland, read that as beating NZ and winning games in the SH. I think Leinster, Ulster and Munster consistently playing European knockout games help Ireland elevate their games in big test matches (hopefully it's spills over to a RWC QF this year) more often than the Welsh. I also anticipate a bit of a Gatland hangover. Once they do get their act together, and it's more than possible over ten years, they more or less have the same ceiling we do anyway. I don't think Wales are as far behind Ireland as this post may suggest, I reckon they're slightly ahead of where we were in 2015, currently Ireland has the higher ceiling though.

Scotland are working with less. Italy are more or less a developing nation. Anyone else has a long way to catch up and I don't see a current tier two side cracking the top 7 for at least 15 years.

Brackets are in no particular order
1-3: NZ, SA, Eng
4-7: Ireland, Wales, Argentina, France
8-9: Scotland, Australia
I don't know enough to estimate anything beyond that.

Predicted this in 2019.

Swap England with France and Wales with Scotland or Aus and I like it.

Feel like the current landscape is:

1 - 2: SA and France - both will beat the rest more often than not as a whole and I'd have then fairly even v each other
3: NZ
4: Ireland - very precarious though and without the usual peak in year 3 of a WC cycle, we'll soon join the next bracket.
5-6: Argentina and England - both could make the jump up a tier and Ireland could drop behind them soon, feel like this is more likely with England but also think Borthwick will continue to max out at 85% of the potential there.
7 - 8: Scotland and Australia - quite comfortably
9: Italy - probably Fiji too in this bracket but they need to be given opportunities play more ball at the top level.

I am not prepared to make Welsh predictions right now.