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Top 15 world rankings predictions for 10 years time?
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<blockquote data-quote="Brigantine" data-source="post: 892094" data-attributes="member: 73940"><p>10 years is a long time. I really don't think any of those things you mentioned really change anything much. The selection of 2023 hosts might, but otherwise the things I'd be looking at for clues are:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">How popular is rugby at the youth level? Is it growing?<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">For the countries currently held back by economic issues, does the economy look like improving?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">In the more populous countries, <span style="font-size: 10px">(USA, Brazil, Japan, Russia, Germany to a degree)</span> doing well means sustained exponential growth.</li> </ul><p>On the first one, I need to check the latest numbers but my guess is that they say tier 2 countries are growing, especially the American ones. (USA, Canada, Brazil). The islands are excluded here because they're already saturated. Hopefully the next RWC will add Japan to the 'especially' list. Honourable mention to England maybe? <span style="font-size: 10px">(high player base but not growing especially?)</span>. Save a seat here for South Africa in case SARU plays their cards right these next few years re expanding the grass roots.</p><p></p><p>On the second one, I'd grade the islands poorly, and give the top grades to Eastern Europe <span style="font-size: 10px">(but not Russia)</span>, South America, and Africa <span style="font-size: 10px">(but South Africa and Namibia not quite as much)</span>. China too, but rugby there is starting at such a low base it won't matter in time.</p><p></p><p>So the ones to watch out for:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">3/3: Brazil</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2/3: Uruguay, Japan, USA, Georgia, Romania <span style="font-size: 12px">- and to a lesser extent (i.e. not in the top 15) Russia, Germany, Kenya and Zimbabwe</span></li> </ul><p>At the expense of Italy, Samoa, Tonga and maybe Fiji. Not because those countries go backwards at all, they just get overtaken.</p><p></p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">England</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">New Zealand</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">South Africa <span style="font-size: 10px">(Anywhere from 1st to 5th depending on building broad demographic appeal)</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">France</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Australia <span style="font-size: 10px">(Anywhere from 3rd to 11th depending on popularity vs other codes)</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Brazil<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Argentina</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Japan <span style="font-size: 10px">(Anywhere from 5th to 11th depending on popularity increasing from the RWC)</span><br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Ireland</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Wales</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Scotland<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Georgia</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Uruguay<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Romania<br /> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">USA</li> </ol><p><span style="font-size: 12px">16. Fiji</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">17. Italy</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">18. Russia</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">19. Germany</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">20. Kenya</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>21. Samoa</strong></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 12px">22. Canada</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 12px">23. Tonga</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 12px">Nowhere in sight: Namibia</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px">[All of that done by guessing without actually looking at the data, so take the details with a pinch of salt]</span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brigantine, post: 892094, member: 73940"] 10 years is a long time. I really don't think any of those things you mentioned really change anything much. The selection of 2023 hosts might, but otherwise the things I'd be looking at for clues are: [LIST] [*]How popular is rugby at the youth level? Is it growing? [*]For the countries currently held back by economic issues, does the economy look like improving? [*]In the more populous countries, [SIZE=2](USA, Brazil, Japan, Russia, Germany to a degree)[/SIZE] doing well means sustained exponential growth. [/LIST] On the first one, I need to check the latest numbers but my guess is that they say tier 2 countries are growing, especially the American ones. (USA, Canada, Brazil). The islands are excluded here because they're already saturated. Hopefully the next RWC will add Japan to the 'especially' list. Honourable mention to England maybe? [SIZE=2](high player base but not growing especially?)[/SIZE]. Save a seat here for South Africa in case SARU plays their cards right these next few years re expanding the grass roots. On the second one, I'd grade the islands poorly, and give the top grades to Eastern Europe [SIZE=2](but not Russia)[/SIZE], South America, and Africa [SIZE=2](but South Africa and Namibia not quite as much)[/SIZE]. China too, but rugby there is starting at such a low base it won't matter in time. So the ones to watch out for: [LIST] [*]3/3: Brazil [*]2/3: Uruguay, Japan, USA, Georgia, Romania [SIZE=3]- and to a lesser extent (i.e. not in the top 15) Russia, Germany, Kenya and Zimbabwe[/SIZE] [/LIST] At the expense of Italy, Samoa, Tonga and maybe Fiji. Not because those countries go backwards at all, they just get overtaken. [LIST=1] [*]England [*]New Zealand [*]South Africa [SIZE=2](Anywhere from 1st to 5th depending on building broad demographic appeal)[/SIZE] [*]France [*]Australia [SIZE=2](Anywhere from 3rd to 11th depending on popularity vs other codes)[/SIZE] [*]Brazil [*]Argentina [*]Japan [SIZE=2](Anywhere from 5th to 11th depending on popularity increasing from the RWC)[/SIZE] [*]Ireland [*]Wales [*]Scotland [*]Georgia [*]Uruguay [*]Romania [*]USA [/LIST] [SIZE=3]16. Fiji 17. Italy 18. Russia 19. Germany 20. Kenya [B]21. Samoa[/B][/SIZE] [B][SIZE=3]22. Canada 23. Tonga Nowhere in sight: Namibia[/SIZE][/B] [SIZE=3] [All of that done by guessing without actually looking at the data, so take the details with a pinch of salt][/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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