Tri Nations: Springboks - All Blacks @ Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium (20-8-2011, 15:05)

[Darwin]

Go back and watch the game, he didn't actually do anything. Like i said Nonu pretty much played first receiver the whole time Slade was on. Please don't lump Cruden in with Donald, Cruden has never played in a losing AB team.

I'm a bit worried he won't threaten the line on attack. I'm sure his kicking round the park will be good, not sure on the goal kicking. I'm just not sure I've ever seen him dominate a game and really stand out at any level. We shall see though i hope he is awesome as I want us to win.

I don't need to watch the game again, I remember quite well what happened. Nonu was at first receiver a couple of times (as he had been used several times during the game when Cruden was on), but Slade did a brilliant job controlling the game once he came on. You could visibly see him communicating with the rest of the backline, in contrast to Cruden who had been quiet all game. The facts remains that he came on with the AB's behind 9-22, but 19 mins later the AB's had won 23-22... he obviously didn't do a bad job for someone on debut!

Cruden is lumped in the same category as Donald, as neither looked comfortable at test level... I don't think Donald was ever good enough, and I think Cruden just wasn't ready (and is not quite ready yet). You say Cruden has never lost a test, but all but one of his tests have been brief cameo's off the bench after the games have been all but secured. Indeed the only test start he has had the AB's were behind 9-22 when he left the field! I'm not saying Slade has been a superstar so far with the AB's, just that he has looked composed in his limited time.

Slade, when fully fit, is very good at taking on the line, as he is very fast. We haven't really seen that a lot since he has returned from injury; hopefully we see this a bit against South Africa. It will certainly be interesting to see how he goes this weekend.

I think the fact that Slade has never really been put under pressure before is a worry. I remember his first couple of Super rugby games at 1st five he was absolutely awful before switching to wing for the rest of the year, i just hope that was a freak occurance and not a susceptibility to pressure.. Also the situation where the less rugby he played, the more he was hyped up was very worrying. Honestly being injured so much has been his best career move yet, all he needs to do is sit in the stands, watch his competitors be average and his stocks soar..

That said he is very talented and appears to be the best option. I'm still unconviced at this stage however.

I don't think Slade was that bad for a 21 year old his debut season. He may have struggled a bit with the step up initially to Super Rugby, but he certainly hasn't looked out of place thus far at test level. I'm sure coming on behind by 13 points again Australia would have been a fair bit of pressure! I do take your point though he hasn't really been tested that much; I'm confident based on what I've seen so far that he has the goods to step up.... we will see on Sunday morning...

It does appear people seem to be rating Slade higher the more he has been out injured. I'm not really in the category though: I've always rated Slade - indeed before last years Tri-nations I suggested he should be the backup for Carter rather than Cruden. If I had been selecting the AB's Slade would probably have a dozen AB's caps to his name. I just think he possess the right skill-set for test rugby; a calm head, good tactical kicker, and very solid defense. I think his fullback skills really suit the current AB's gameplan as well.

 

[Darwin]

All Blacks side named:

1. Tony Woodcock (74)
2. Keven Mealamu - captain (84)
3. John Afoa (32)
4. Samuel Whitelock (16)
5. Ali Williams (64)
6. Jerome Kaino (40)
7. Adam Thomson (20)
8. Liam Messam (8)
9. Jimmy Cowan (46)
10. Colin Slade (4)
11. Hosea Gear (7)
12. Sonny Bill Williams (6)
13. Richard Kahui (11)
14. Isaia Toeava (30)
15. Israel Dagg (6)

Reserves:
16. Andrew Hore (53)
17. Ben Franks (10)
18. Jarrad Hoeata (2)
19. Victor Vito (6)
20. Andy Ellis (19)
21. Piri Weepu (47)
22. Cory Jane (23)

 

[TRF_heineken]

Not a bad B-team...

just think the Boks loose forwards with FDP and Steyn will have the upper hand to the untested combinations Graham Henry picked. Why 2 scrumhalves on the bench? Will Weepu be used as a fly half? didn't he try that previously?

if the Boks apply as much pressure as they did against the aussies, they'll win the breakdown... Don't rate Messam at test rugby level at all, but Thompson will play a monster of a game and will have a big task to keep Brussouw in tact.

 

[Darwin]

Not a bad B-team...

just think the Boks loose forwards with FDP and Steyn will have the upper hand to the untested combinations Graham Henry picked. Why 2 scrumhalves on the bench? Will Weepu be used as a fly half? didn't he try that previously?

if the Boks apply as much pressure as they did against the aussies, they'll win the breakdown... Don't rate Messam at test rugby level at all, but Thompson will play a monster of a game and will have a big task to keep Brussouw in tact.

Weepu is the backup 10. He will be the third choice 10 in the RWC squad, so it makes sense that he gets some game time there. Weepu is a very capable 10 so I don't think their will be an issue with him playing there. The AB's coaches only believe that their scrumhalves are capable of playing 60 mins, so feel they need another backup halfback as well.

I agree that the All Blacks loose-forward trio is a bit untested; Messem has yet to establish himself at test level, and I'm still not convinced about Thomson at 7. However I don't think the Boks have the trio to exploit this; Spies looked great with ball in hand last week and Alberts is a powerful ball runner, but I don't rate either's work at he breakdown. Brussow could cause the AB's some issues, but his lack of recent gametime means he is not yet back at his best in my opinion. I think the AB's will actually have the upper hand at the breakdown, as not only are all their loose-forwards proficient in this area, but their tight-forwards and many of the backs (e.g. SBW) are actually pretty handy the breakdown too.

 

[Rhyer]

That team is going to get bullied. Tight-five looks solid but the loose trio is shocking. The most experienced backs are Toeava and Cowan. It will be interesting as the Boks side that toured was based on Super 15 form and so is this team pretty much, it'll be an interesting one to say the least, look at how much their form counted for at test-level.

 

[Sneaki]

Pretty decent team, mostly as I expected although I thought Dagg might play 14 with Toeava at the back, also thought they might consider having just Weepu on the bench with Jane and Guildford both there as well, but that would be a bit unusual I suppose. Could be Gear's last chance to impress as they've left Guildford out this time, I really hope he has a better game this time. Couple of other interesting things to watch too, looking forward to seeing how Woodcock goes, and whether Slade can push on after a fairly promising start. Also the Williams-Kahui combo should be fun to watch, I reckon they'll be playing together next year at the Chiefs, even if the Hurricanes could do with another 12...

This is a really big match for the Springboks particularly, given that if they lose they'll have lost every game in the tri-nations, and lost with their A team to an AB's team without DC or Richie (I don't really want to call it a B-team because there's still a lot of class there). Bearing in mind that the 'Boks have Wales in their first game of the WC, which could be an early slip up point, they'll want to build some confidence here.

 

[Darwin]

That team is going to get bullied. Tight-five looks solid but the loose trio is shocking. The most experienced backs are Toeava and Cowan. It will be interesting as the Boks side that toured was based on Super 15 form and so is this team pretty much, it'll be an interesting one to say the least, look at how much their form counted for at test-level.

The loose-forward trio lacks experience, but it is far from shocking... infact the NZ loose-forward trio is actually more experienced than the South African trio! The New Zealand loose-trio contains one of the top blindside flanks in world rugby in Kaino....I don't think anyone has ever bullied Kaino! Though Messem has yet to establish himself at test level, he was undoubtedly one of the top loose-forwards in Super Rugby - he certainly has all the tools to be a quality test number 8. My only area of concern in the loose-forwards is Thomson at 7, but he has so-far performed well in Black this season. New Zealand has an abundance of quality loose-forwards - just because they lack experience at test level doesn't mean they are bad players....

 

[ranger]

That team is going to get bullied. Tight-five looks solid but the loose trio is shocking. The most experienced backs are Toeava and Cowan. It will be interesting as the Boks side that toured was based on Super 15 form and so is this team pretty much, it'll be an interesting one to say the least, look at how much their form counted for at test-level.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Smith ruled out of World Cup

 

[smartcooky]

I believe this team would trouble most sides in the world, but I'm not sure if they can win on the weekend.

This is The Wall for the Bokke, and their backs are firmly up against it. Essentially, they must win, and win well, or their credibility goes out the window

I see this as a master stroke by Graham Henry

1. He has created a situation where some of his marginal selections (Dagg, Kahui,Toeava, Messam & Vito) will be under the pump.

2. He has given Colin Slade the chance to show why he was picked to fill the role or Dan Carter's backup.

3. If the All Blacks win, the Boks will be utterly demoralized.

4. If they lose, he will always be able to downplay it, and say that it was very much a weakened team.

Henry is going to learn a lot about his dirt-trackers this weekend, but the only danger is that he might not like what he finds out!!!


Last season, Graham Henry said that the public may have to get used to the idea that we may have to lose some tests in the short term for the long term benefit of the AB's RWC campaign.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

If South Africa manages to win this weekend, that will mean that the Springboks will have the TRF shield back! And since there are no more matches to be played by South Africa until the World Cup, they would be the holders at the end

 

[Shaggy]

If South Africa manages to win this weekend, that will mean that the Springboks will have the TRF shield back! And since there are no more matches to be played by South Africa until the World Cup, they would be the holders at the end

... and they were the holders at the start too ... don't want to let the players from either side know that they playing for the TRF shield, they are under enough pressure as it is!

 

[abczyx]

All Blacks to win, despite the weakened team. The Springboks have looked off this year, as if they'd poisoned their own food by mistake. They will be motivated but I still think NZ have too much.

 

[SavageLez]

I believe this team would trouble most sides in the world, but I'm not sure if they can win on the weekend.

This is The Wall for the Bokke, and their backs are firmly up against it. Essentially, they must win, and win well, or their credibility goes out the window

I see this as a master stroke by Graham Henry

1. He has created a situation where some of his marginal selections (Dagg, Kahui,Toeava, Messam & Vito) will be under the pump.

2. He has given Colin Slade the chance to show why he was picked to fill the role or Dan Carter's backup.

3. If the All Blacks win, the Boks will be utterly demoralized.

4. If they lose, he will always be able to downplay it, and say that it was very much a weakened team.

Henry is going to learn a lot about his dirt-trackers this weekend, but the only danger is that he might not like what he finds out!!!


Last season, Graham Henry said that the public may have to get used to the idea that we may have to lose some tests in the short term for the long term benefit of the AB's RWC campaign.

I agree with all statements except point no.4 -

The Springboks are also not at full strength with two key players Schalk Burger and Frans Steyn out injured. PdV is also playing fringe players in the starting line up to give them game time come RWC. Gio Aplon would normally start after Steyn at FB but Lambie has been given a go to prove himself and Guthro Steenkamp has hardly played since breaking his arm in 2010. Beast should start ahead of him come RWC.

Both teams are experimenting and neither team wants to lose. It won't be the be all and end all if either team loses but I do feel that Richie McCaw has hardly played any rugby this year and he is not gonna face any competition in the pool stages so I am surpised that he is not playing against the BOKS as they are "potential semi finalists" and one of his toughest opponents come the knockout stages. I mentioned this earlier but McCaw has been wrapped in cotton wool but this strategy may back fire come the knockout stages of the RWC!

 

[smartcooky]

TAll Blacks to win, despite the weakened team. The Springboks have looked off this year, as if they'd poisoned their own food by mistake. They will be motivated but I still think NZ have too much.

 

[SavageLez]

It will be interesting if South Africa put a 15 pointer plus on the All Blacks considering they are also not at full strength!
That would really get the NZ confidence down and get the coaches selections rattled.
Anyway, I will be at the game in Port Elizabeth, can't wait to see the HAKA Live!

 

[Larksea]

I agree with all statements except point no.4 -

I agree, sure the NZ public will be realistic about it but the AB's coaches and players won't use that as an excuse. The AB's under henry have never lost a game when they have rested players as far as I can remember and they won't want to start now.

All Blacks have the tallent to win, it comes down to the combinations fireing and players proving their potential.

The loose forwards need to fire, Thompson and Messam in particular but also Kaino who is a great player but sometimes lacks consistancy. I'm hoping for a massive game from Messam, he has all the skills, he's very physical, he can smash forwards on defence and he can run backs over or swat them off if they get in his way. He's strong at the breakdown pushing over the ball, creates havoc when he has space and players running off him out wide and his workrate is 2nd to none - he's a rare type of player that can do what's needed. If a team needs to defend he will top the tackle count or in open games he will be the top ball carrier and line breaker in the forwards all that and he's never injured no matter what happens he gets straight back up. But it's really important he puts a performance in on the park to prove that and give him confidence going into what will be the most important period of his professional life. I have a good feeling about messam I think he's looking very fit after spending a lot of time getting into shape since the super15 finished - I have a hunch he's been targeting this game for a big performance.

IMO Other players who are under a bit of pressure.

Hosea Gear - is the only one of the wing options not to impress so far, he can't afford a quiet game. When a game isn't going the way of players like Zac, Jane, Toeava, Sivivatu they go and find it Gear doesn't, he seems to wait for it to come even if he waits the whole 80.

Sam Whitelock - he was a big find last year but so far this year since his injury he hasn't been himself. I think in his last start he carried the ball 3 times for 3 meters, he's not winning a hell of a lot of lineout ball and he's been beaten in the tackle count and breakdown work by the likes of Crockett and the Franks brothers. So far the best way I can describe his game is he runs around being average or below in all areas. He needs to step up becuase I dont believe Boric or Donnelly would be that quiet.

Tony Woodcock - he's been out for months, he says he's now pain free but to me he looked well down on condition as good and experienced as he is the AB's shouldn't carry him through the WC if he can't do the job and to me he didn't look good enough in his ITM cup comeback.

SBW - this is his chance to silence his critics (again) his combination with Kahui has pretty awesome potential. Kahui is just the kind of player that will thrive outside SBW if he gets the offloads working (another is israel dagg - look for that during the game).

Toeava - has looked strong in ITM without burning the house down. Needs to lift his game to the next level - he's been groomed for years and now is his time to repay the faith.

 

[Rhyer]

It will be interesting if South Africa put a 15 pointer plus on the All Blacks considering they are also not at full strength!
That would really get the NZ confidence down and get the coaches selections rattled.
Anyway, I will be at the game in Port Elizabeth, can't wait to see the HAKA Live!

You're kidding right? Boks bar two positions are a full strength side which are Lambie and Alberts. Both are on extremely good form and have looked good for the Boks thus far.

 

[lance2010]

I agree, sure the NZ public will be realistic about it but the AB's coaches and players won't use that as an excuse. The AB's under henry have never lost a game when they have rested players as far as I can remember and they won't want to start now.

All Blacks have the tallent to win, it comes down to the combinations fireing and players proving their potential.

The loose forwards need to fire, Thompson and Messam in particular but also Kaino who is a great player but sometimes lacks consistancy. I'm hoping for a massive game from Messam, he has all the skills, he's very physical, he can smash forwards on defence and he can run backs over or swat them off if they get in his way. He's strong at the breakdown pushing over the ball, creates havoc when he has space and players running off him out wide and his workrate is 2nd to none - he's a rare type of player that can do what's needed. If a team needs to defend he will top the tackle count or in open games he will be the top ball carrier and line breaker in the forwards all that and he's never injured no matter what happens he gets straight back up. But it's really important he puts a performance in on the park to prove that and give him confidence going into what will be the most important period of his professional life. I have a good feeling about messam I think he's looking very fit after spending a lot of time getting into shape since the super15 finished - I have a hunch he's been targeting this game for a big performance.

IMO Other players who are under a bit of pressure.

Hosea Gear - is the only one of the wing options not to impress so far, he can't afford a quiet game. When a game isn't going the way of players like Zac, Jane, Toeava, Sivivatu they go and find it Gear doesn't, he seems to wait for it to come even if he waits the whole 80.

Sam Whitelock - he was a big find last year but so far this year since his injury he hasn't been himself. I think in his last start he carried the ball 3 times for 3 meters, he's not winning a hell of a lot of lineout ball and he's been beaten in the tackle count and breakdown work by the likes of Crockett and the Franks brothers. So far the best way I can describe his game is he runs around being average or below in all areas. He needs to step up becuase I dont believe Boric or Donnelly would be that quiet.

Tony Woodcock - he's been out for months, he says he's now pain free but to me he looked well down on condition as good and experienced as he is the AB's shouldn't carry him through the WC if he can't do the job and to me he didn't look good enough in his ITM cup comeback.

SBW - this is his chance to silence his critics (again) his combination with Kahui has pretty awesome potential. Kahui is just the kind of player that will thrive outside SBW if he gets the offloads working

Toeava - has looked strong in ITM without burning the house down. Needs to lift his game to the next level - he's been groomed for years and now is his time to repay the faith.

SBW needs to do more then just silence the critics he needs to silence Ma'a Nonu's form cause we all know SBW is great with the off load but can he control JDV and Fourie on the defense side.I'm not worried about SBW attacking abilities but where he is on defense can he be that rock in the AB's backline which Nonu is....well see this week.

 

[Darwin]

Really looking forward to this game. A very exciting looking All Blacks backline - if they gel together they could rip any team apart, but I just wonder how they will go if the Boks put them under pressure.

It looks reasonable evenly matched up front to me. Woodcock is obviously under a lot of pressure after returning from injury. If he was fully fit and firing I would say he had the edge on Jannie du Plessis, but as it is I think it will be pretty evenly matched. On the other side of the scrum, it is Steenkamp returning from injury after being out for most of the year. Again at full fitness I'd give him the edge over Afoa (though Afoa has started to look more comfortable at test level over the last year or so), but as Steenkamp is only just returning I'd say it will be pretty even. Mealamu vs Bismark is a great matchup, as they are definately two of the best hookers in world rugby. The scrum battle will be pretty even in my opinion, especially considering New Zealand don't really have a genuine 'tighthead lock' playing, with both Ali Williams and Sam Whitelock more comfortable in the 'loosehead lock' role.

I think South Afica have an advantage in the locks. Though both Botha and Matfield are probably past their best they are still high quality players. Ali Williams has been pretty disappointing since his return to test rugby - the best part of his recent matches is that he hasn't has the ball in hand so much so he hasn't kept dropping it! As Larksea points out, Sam Whitelock has been very quiet. He certainly has the talent to match any lock in the world; hopefully he starts to show this talent at test level again.

As I've mentioned above, the loose-forward battle looks evenly matched to me. Spies and Alberts are good with the ball in hand, but I don't really rate their work at the breakdown - I'd expect Brussow will be often fighting a solo battle there. It will be a huge test for both Thomson and Messem, but if either is able to replicate their Super rugby form they will have no issues at all.

South Africa may have a slight edge in the halves, if only because of their greater experience. du Preez showed flashes of his talent last week, and I'd expect him to be even more impressive this week. Cowan actually had a very strong game vs the Boks in Wellington, and will need another big game as he is by far the most experienced All Blacks back. Goal-kicking aside I actually think Slade is a better player than Morne Steyn, but as others have pointed out he hasn't been tested much at test level. I actually think a lot of people are going to be surprised at how good he is.

I give the Boks the edge in the midfield, due to the greater experience of their combination. SBW and Kahui could potentially cause all sorts of problems, but I don't recall them ever playing together, so it will be interesting to see how they go. I'm actually a bit worried about the AB's midfield defence; Slade, SBW, and Kahui are all good one-on-one defenders, but defence, even more so than attack, is based on combinations. You need to know exactly what the man inside and outside you are capable of, and trust them them to do their job. Luckily for the AB's I don't think the midfield defence will be tested too much, as the ball has to get past both Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn first.....

The outside back matchups are interesting. Toeava and Hosea Gear were picked as NZ's premier wings on last years EOYT, but both are just back from injury and are under huge pressure to perform. I'd imagine both will be tested under the high ball; Toeava was exceptional under the high ball during the Super Rugby season, and Gear appears to have improved this area of his game looking comfortable vs Australia (though I'm sure he will be put under more pressure this week). Pietersen vs Habana were solid vs Australia, but I'd imagine their role on attack this game may be restricted to chasing the ball. It will be interesting to see how Dagg goes; he is incredibly dangerous with ball in hand, but is prone to making silly errors.

It is a really hard game to pick for me. I actually think South Africa have the edge in more areas than the AB's, but due to their likely style of play they may not really exploit this advantage. I'm picking the AB's to take it by 5, though I'm not sure whether this pick is with my head or my heart....