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Tri Nations 2009-2011
Tri Nations: Springboks - Wallabies @ Kings Park, Durban (13-08-2011, 16:00 GMT)
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<blockquote data-quote="Darwin" data-source="post: 430369" data-attributes="member: 24910"><p>Good suggestion, I think I shall - I really enjoyed it the first time! Elsom hit a more rucks than usual during the NZ game, though he didn't really hit that many (apparently he was one of the <a href="http://www.ruggastats.com/games.aspx?G=322" target="_blank">1st 3 at the breakdown 28 times</a>). Elsom in general does not hit many breakdowns; collated stats (from <a href="http://www.ruggastats.com/" target="_blank">http://www.ruggastats.com/</a>), show that over last years tri-nations, and the two games this year, Elsom was amongst the 1st 3 at the breakdown 23.9 times / 80 mins. This is poor compared to other loose-forwards e.g. Pocock (56.8 times), Brown (39.9), McCalman (30.5) and he is even shaded by most of the tight-forwards e.g Alexander (30.0), Simmons (37.9), Benn Robinson (26.9), Moore (25.1), and Horwill (24.5). Indeed the only forward who he is hitting more breakdowns than is Nathan Sharpe (22.4), who unfourtuantely for the Wallabies is also playing this game!</p><p></p><p>With Higginbotham and Elsom in the loose-forwards and Sharpe at lock the rest of the forwards are going to be very busy at the breakdown while these three stand out in the midfield (Sharpe) or on the wing (Higginbotham, Elsom). Luckily for Australia, I don't think South Africa has the loose-forward trio to exploit this - Brossuw will be at every breakdown (battling with Pocock), but Spies doesn't really hit many breakdowns, and while Rossouw does hit plenty of breakdowns he is so slow around he field that the breakdown is almost over by the time he arrives....</p><p></p><p>Anyways onto the game. Looks like it should be a good game with South Africa naming basically their first-choice lineup. It will be an interesting battle at scrum time - the Australia scrum held up well against the AB's; it wouldn't actually surprise me if they put a bit of pressure on South Africa's scrum at times. The loose-forward battle should be interesting, but as I've mentioned I don't like the balance of either trio. It will definately be a battle of contrasting styles in the backs. I'm sure South Africa will look to put a lot of pressure on Quade Cooper (as the AB's successfully did). If they can do this South Africa could get a couple of intercepts during the game, with Habana and de Villiers experts in that department. South Africa look to have the edge in the midfield, but Australia does have a big edge out wide. I expect South Africa to kick a lot, but they will have to make sure they kick accurately and chase well, or kick the ball out (and well out to avoid a quick lineout), as Australia are deadly on the counter-attack. I expect Genia may cause South Africa quite a few troubles darting around the base of the rucks, as the lateral defense of a number of the South African forwards (Rossouw and Smit in particular) is very poor.</p><p></p><p>Overall it thinnk it is a very hard game to pick. I'm picking Australia to win it (largley due to South Africa's 'rustiness') by about 10 points, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it went the other way.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Darwin, post: 430369, member: 24910"] Good suggestion, I think I shall - I really enjoyed it the first time! Elsom hit a more rucks than usual during the NZ game, though he didn't really hit that many (apparently he was one of the [URL="http://www.ruggastats.com/games.aspx?G=322"]1st 3 at the breakdown 28 times[/URL]). Elsom in general does not hit many breakdowns; collated stats (from [URL]http://www.ruggastats.com/[/URL]), show that over last years tri-nations, and the two games this year, Elsom was amongst the 1st 3 at the breakdown 23.9 times / 80 mins. This is poor compared to other loose-forwards e.g. Pocock (56.8 times), Brown (39.9), McCalman (30.5) and he is even shaded by most of the tight-forwards e.g Alexander (30.0), Simmons (37.9), Benn Robinson (26.9), Moore (25.1), and Horwill (24.5). Indeed the only forward who he is hitting more breakdowns than is Nathan Sharpe (22.4), who unfourtuantely for the Wallabies is also playing this game! With Higginbotham and Elsom in the loose-forwards and Sharpe at lock the rest of the forwards are going to be very busy at the breakdown while these three stand out in the midfield (Sharpe) or on the wing (Higginbotham, Elsom). Luckily for Australia, I don't think South Africa has the loose-forward trio to exploit this - Brossuw will be at every breakdown (battling with Pocock), but Spies doesn't really hit many breakdowns, and while Rossouw does hit plenty of breakdowns he is so slow around he field that the breakdown is almost over by the time he arrives.... Anyways onto the game. Looks like it should be a good game with South Africa naming basically their first-choice lineup. It will be an interesting battle at scrum time - the Australia scrum held up well against the AB's; it wouldn't actually surprise me if they put a bit of pressure on South Africa's scrum at times. The loose-forward battle should be interesting, but as I've mentioned I don't like the balance of either trio. It will definately be a battle of contrasting styles in the backs. I'm sure South Africa will look to put a lot of pressure on Quade Cooper (as the AB's successfully did). If they can do this South Africa could get a couple of intercepts during the game, with Habana and de Villiers experts in that department. South Africa look to have the edge in the midfield, but Australia does have a big edge out wide. I expect South Africa to kick a lot, but they will have to make sure they kick accurately and chase well, or kick the ball out (and well out to avoid a quick lineout), as Australia are deadly on the counter-attack. I expect Genia may cause South Africa quite a few troubles darting around the base of the rucks, as the lateral defense of a number of the South African forwards (Rossouw and Smit in particular) is very poor. Overall it thinnk it is a very hard game to pick. I'm picking Australia to win it (largley due to South Africa's 'rustiness') by about 10 points, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it went the other way. [/QUOTE]
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Tri Nations 2009-2011
Tri Nations: Springboks - Wallabies @ Kings Park, Durban (13-08-2011, 16:00 GMT)
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