Tri Nations: Wallabies - All Blacks @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (27-8-2011, 10:05GMT)

[Rhyer]

The All Blacks XV will be virtually the same as the one that played at Eden Park with the expected inclusion of Woodcock and a slight question mark over the starting wingers and whether Dagg can oust Muliaina (not likely however)

I think Dagg will be the premier left wing come the world cup final as they will be looking for reliable hands and defence for the ping pong rugby, especially against South Africa or England.

 

[Larksea]

Gotta go for the AB's

Strong team, Just missing a few players from what I would consider the strongest 22, bonus point victory on the cards.

Wane Barnes does worry me though. Strange ref, he failed to award the All Blacks a single penalty in the 2nd half of that game in 2007 yet watching the recent cup final he reffed he blew the whistle on everything that looked even remotely like a penalty, his whistle dominated the game. If he had reffed that WC quater final the way the AB;s would have won by 9+ points.

three types of refs:
1, good refs use panalties to establish rules and consistancey so players know where they stand.
2, then there are refs who blow up for everything, refs like this dominate the game - the teams become a sideshow. It becomes a game of playing the ref not the ball.
3, and refs who let the players sort everything out and enforce their own rules, refs like this create games where the result is a lottery.

In the two games I've seen barnes ref in the first game he was type 3 in the 2nd he was type 2. The best refs are obviously type 1.

But I bet barnes knows that the TMO is not allowed to rule on anything before the tryline.

 

[Darwin]

I think Dagg will be the premier left wing come the world cup final as they will be looking for reliable hands and defence for the ping pong rugby, especially against South Africa or England.

Dagg is certainly an option for the left wing, but when the coaches were asked whether they saw Dagg as a potential starting wing they didn't seem that keen. Guildford, Jane, and Toeava all have similar or (or better) handling and defence as Dagg. At this stage I see Guildford and Jane as the starting wings (as they have for this match), but a lot can change in a few weeks!

Anyways... Looking very close to the top AB's team this week - 11 changes from last week. I hope Weepu has a big game and confirms his spot as the starting halfback.

 

[Rhyer]

Dagg is certainly an option for the left wing, but when the coaches were asked whether they saw Dagg as a potential starting wing they didn't seem that keen. Guildford, Jane, and Toeava all have similar or (or better) handling and defence as Dagg. At this stage I see Guildford and Jane as the starting wings (as they have for this match), but a lot can change in a few weeks!

Anyways... Looking very close to the top AB's team this week - 11 changes from last week. I hope Weepu has a big game and confirms his spot as the starting halfback.

I don't know about that though. One thing for sure is you can't drop Mils, he is the best fullback in the world, Beale and Dagg might beat him on attack but in terms of linking with other players, physicality, defence, handling and security Mils is really the complete package. It looks like Toeava is the ultimate bench player for this team but I still get the feeling Dagg should play on the left wing from time to time as he has that real attacking presence in tight games.

 

[The_Wol]

Woldog, you're on... and I reckon Jane's going to monster through Digby on three seperate occassions, then pull off the turtle spin once he scores lol

I bet Quade Cooper does a jinky sidestep at some point during the game!

 

[Darwin]

Quite looking forward to this game. The scrums are going to particularly interesting - it was reasonably evenly matched last time the two sides met, and Woodcock struggled a bit last week against the Boks (admittedly alongside Afoa and with Ali Williams as the tighthead lock). Woodcock certainly has a lot to prove though. I think it will certainly help if Adam Thomson actually pushes this week, rather than just hanging off the scrum doing nothing.....

I'm interested to see how Vickermann goes for Australia - he used to be a world class lock, but hasn't really been playing much top quality rugby for a few years. Likewise I'm interested in how Samo goes - if he plays well he could well secure himself the starting 8 jersey during the RWC (though Palu may have something to say about that if he gets back to full fitness).

Not surprised to see Weepu at halfback - he seems to be the first choice halfback against Australia, but is seen as an impact player against everyone else! Hopefully Colin Slade gets 20 mins of the bench at 10 (assuming the AB's are looking comfortable) to get some more experience at this level. I'm expecting Nonu to have a big game - he's been threatening to break out for the AB's all year, and I just have a feeling this could be the game.

I'm still not convinced Kurtley Beale is fully fit, as he just hasn't been his dynamic self this Tri-nations, but he Ioane, and Quade Cooper will still be a big threat on the counter attack. I expect the AB's to actually kick quite a bit behind the Aussie wings, particularly for Guildford to chase, as he has an obvious speed advantage over Ashley-Cooper. It will be interesting to see how Muliaina plays this match given the pressure Dagg is putting on him - he responded brilliantly last year, and I expect him to have a big match this weekend.

 

[Wally]

Where's V bookie at? Going to win a dump of money on Australia.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Let the choking begin!!

 

[kaftka]

You don't want to wait until the world cup for the choking to begin?

Well, if you're sure...

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

vBookie added

Here's the vBookie... Go nuts!

 

[Darwin]

Here's the vBookie... Go nuts!

I've just gone nuts and put all my money on the AB's winning...

 

[RuckinGoodStats]

Quite looking forward to this game. The scrums are going to particularly interesting -
.

Some scrum stats for you from 2011 games. Aus are conceding an average of 0.8 pens and 0.3 F/K per game. NZ 1.75 pens 0.75 F/K.

For Aus it is 2.3 times more likely a scrum infringements happen on the AUS feed, than on the opp's feed. For NZ it is 2.5 timse more likely a scrum infringement will occur on the opp's feed, rather than NZ's feed. So when Aus have a feed that is where Barnes may play a role.

AUS is averageing 3.0 scrum resets on their feed NZ 3.5 scrum resets on their feed. So your are right scrums will be interesting, hopefullly not a shambles.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

So technically the ABs scrum is worse than the Wallabies?

 

[Gavin]

Genia in doubt after another training collision

 

[RuckinGoodStats]

So technically the ABs scrum is worse than the Wallabies?

Wouldn't say that. Would say the stats suggest where things get messy from a trends perspective. Of course this assume the teams will oblige and play the same way.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

So technically the ABs scrum is worse than the Wallabies?

Remember the stats are a bit skewed in that Aus and NZ have only played each other once this year but each has played SA twice where both had 1 game against our B/C team. The other; full strength Aus had the benefit of John Smit at tighthead for much of the game while NZ's 'B' team/'B' frontrow was up against our top scrum configuration so far this year.

 

[Larksea]

just put pretty much everything on the AB's

 

[Natas]

32 - 18 All Blacks. Wounded Kiwis are never any fun. No $BW for this one, not even on the bench. Will he even get a start at the RWC if the ABs go without injury? And Ellis instead of Cowan?

 

[Darwin]

32 - 18 All Blacks. Wounded Kiwis are never any fun. No $BW for this one, not even on the bench. Will he even get a start at the RWC if the ABs go without injury? And Ellis instead of Cowan?

At this stage it looks like SBW will get a start in 1 or 2 of the minor games (Japan and/or Canada). He is unlikely to be in the 22 in the important matches.

Ellis ahead of Cowan is simply because Cowan need a rest, and Ellis needs gametime. I have no doubt that in the important RWC games Weepu and Cowan will be the two halfbacks in the 22.

 

[RuckinGoodStats]

Remember the stats are a bit skewed in that Aus and NZ have only played each other once this year but each has played SA twice where both had 1 game against our B/C team. The other; full strength Aus had the benefit of John Smit at tighthead for much of the game while NZ's 'B' team/'B' frontrow was up against our top scrum configuration so far this year.

Yup and I've included the warm-up games against Samoa and Fiji. This is what it will be like until the semi in RWC, a lot of cat and mouse