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Where do teams stand ahead of the WC?

The Oggmonster

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I may be an idiot for thinking this, and I’m sure some of the Welsh posters will be very unhappy with me but I still think that England and Ireland fare a better of winning the Cup than Wales.

Of the 3, Wales have clearly been the most consistent in recent times but I’m yet to see them put in a single performance that you can look at and say that they would’ve beaten the All Blacks on that day. Ireland have had a number of those performances, particularly the one in which they actually did beat the ABs, and I believe that the way England played against Ireland, they would’ve beaten anyone in the world. For me, Wales just haven’t had a performance like that; they’ve been consistently very good but never great.

Another thing to keep in mind is that there is no Millenium stadium in Japan. Wales more than any other nation have made their home stadium a fortress and playing at home seems to give them an extra 30%. Wales three away performances in this year's 6N were far from convincing. France's second half capitulation gifted them a win, unconvincing against Italy and very fortunate not to receive multiple yellow cards against Scotland in the second half which could have led to a different result.

For me, the three crucial factors to Wales's success are 1. Gatland (& Edwards), 2. Millenium stadium and 3. AWJ as captain.
 

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I reckon the World Rankings have it about right for the 6n sides going into the RWC, South Africa would probably work their way up to least third if they had a full RC this year. So in order of best positioned for the RWC to worst, in my esteemed and ultimately correct opinion, with more emphasis on Ireland than anyone else:

Wales

Maybe they'd want to add to their attack to beat NZ but after the Kiwis they're setting the standard right now, as long as they don't regress Ireland and England will have to pull out levels of performance that they haven't reached in 12 or 24+ months respectively to have a chance of beating them in a knockout game, SA are a bit of an unknown quantity, nobody else should really beat them. The final is well within their reach given their draw, and NZ are beatable this time around. Very exciting times to be Welsh.

Ireland

Fairly shite six nations for Ireland and almost wholly negative, a lot of players were unfit, and some of the most influential players were out of form dragging everyone else down. Its not all doom and gloom though, we fairly regularly have bad six nations and bounce back:
2011 (3 wins, home loss to France) - depressingly, we had our best RWC ever after that with a great win against Australia.
2016 (2 wins, draw at home) - We had a competitive tour in SA, lost 2-1, with an injury depleted team and players who'd never wear green again involved, beat NZ and Aus in the Autumn too.
2017 (3 wins, none away from home) - Start of the unbeaten streak that would include the grand slam.

That said, and a lot of this has been discussed in the Ireland thread, we need to trust our backs who aren't regular starters. It was clear after Italy that Murray was unfit and void of form, his mechanics were off and he wasn't playing his way back. Meanwhile Sexton wasn't playing great but he was at least having positive influences when not clearly hamstrung by his 9*, another 9 really could have changed our fortunes, Carty was working with far more time than Sexton ever got. Fortunately Murray has 7 months to get himself right, Munster have a good 9 in Mathewson so that means he doesn't have to play if not right and if he gets his mobility and strength back in his arm you'd expect him to come back firing. Sexton will be fine, he'll tear Ulster apart in a fortnight and finish the season strong with Leinster. Problem with this was that even if the half backs were on last year's form they weren't going to be able to show it, the pack looked good in Edinburgh and for 70 minutes against France, clueless for the rest of the competition. Best seesawed between marginally better than what Niall Scannell has shown in his scant opportunities in green and atrocious, if Schmidt values his presence so much bring him to the RWC as third choice hooker but the world cup is going to be all about attrition and Best hasn't proven he can play back to back internationals to a high level since the last 6n.

The few positives were Jordan Larmour, he looked more adept than he had all season with Ster and bolting into the 15 shirt isn't beyond him; Carty is another 10 option behind Sexton and Carbery; Conan finally looked very good at international level; and we have Henshaw, Leavy and Toner to come back who were all fairly vital to success at times last year.

A semi final, final, or even winning the thing hasn't all of a sudden become an unrealistic target though, they'll be going into the competition having won 23 of their previous 26 matches, (Schmidt line from yesterday) Cardiff was the only fixture they played and failed to win in the world cup cycle and the one fixture they didn't play was NZ away and a few of the guys won there with the Lions. That SA or NZ QF is looking far more daunting than it was before though, and it has never been taken for granted.

England

Before the second half yesterday I'd have had them in a comfortably better position than Ireland going into it but I'm not so sure. There's something wrong with their psyche, they were ultra pumped for Ireland and looked like the best team in the world but they looked flat in what was essentially a grand slam decider against Wales when they had worked hard for a lead and their attitude stank in the second half of a home international against their oldest rivals who'd spanked them last year. I think they've got the toughest challenge mentally to overcome (Ireland's challenge is more functional**) and any big successes the squad can draw upon will be more than two years old. There's also Ben Te'o....

I think England are the most well rounded team when it comes to skills but the brains are lacking in more ways than one. They really should be able to beat teams in a number of ways given their big pack and mix of explosive and quick backs but beyond bullying teams into making mistakes and smart kicking they haven't shown much. It's odd.

Scotland

They're not going to win the world cup, they probably won't reach a semi but they'll know that with a fit team they can take Ireland and SA if either fail to properly impose themselves on the game. Yesterday might prove to be huge for them.

France

Brunel isn't smart enough to get France out of that group unless England or, more likely, Argentina gift it to him. Any team capable of playing with a tiny bit of structure with the ability to convert territory and possession into points will beat France comfortably.

Italy

2019 won't reap any positive and groundbreaking final scores for Italy, they'd be best focusing on not ******* up v Namibia and Canada before trying to overturn the two pool b giants.




*I read someone saying yesterday that blaming Sexton's form on Murray was cheap, to blame it totally on Murray is but to suggest Sexton wasn't handicapped at all by slow and erratic service is ludicrous, look at the amount of times yesterday he was forced to rush his kicks despite being deep in the pocket. Coming from a scrum half, the 10 is absolutely entitled to blame you for things when you're providing him with substandard ball and making mistakes elsewhere, it works both ways if the 10 is shirking his responsibilities but that wasn't the case here.

** Some people are going to argue that with things like Sexton swearing and throwing the ball and POM's most memorable line of the 6 nations but I've literally seen both of them do things like that while 20 points up in relatively unimportant Ster and Munster games. The physicality was there yesterday after lacking v England we just never seemed to have any discernible plan the entire tournament, unprecedented from a Schmidt outfit. An eye-test though so anyone is entitled to rebut and disagree with me but to argue it further than that would be pointless.

I think Ireland choked against wales. It doesn’t matter how much they improve their function if they choke like that. Simply, a lot of those mistakes wouldn’t have happened if they weren’t feeling the mental pressure. On the plus side maybe sexton will learn. I don’t know how much he has played behind a pack that isn’t dominating the breakdown, hence on the Backfoot and not receiving good service? Ireland have for a very long time been exceptional at recycling their own ball, not sure about his club sides?
 

Umaga's Witness

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I reckon the World Rankings have it about right for the 6n sides going into the RWC, South Africa would probably work their way up to least third if they had a full RC this year. So in order of best positioned for the RWC to worst, in my esteemed and ultimately correct opinion, with more emphasis on Ireland than anyone else:

Wales

Maybe they'd want to add to their attack to beat NZ but after the Kiwis they're setting the standard right now, as long as they don't regress Ireland and England will have to pull out levels of performance that they haven't reached in 12 or 24+ months respectively to have a chance of beating them in a knockout game, SA are a bit of an unknown quantity, nobody else should really beat them. The final is well within their reach given their draw, and NZ are beatable this time around. Very exciting times to be Welsh.

Ireland

Fairly shite six nations for Ireland and almost wholly negative, a lot of players were unfit, and some of the most influential players were out of form dragging everyone else down. Its not all doom and gloom though, we fairly regularly have bad six nations and bounce back:
2011 (3 wins, home loss to France) - depressingly, we had our best RWC ever after that with a great win against Australia.
2016 (2 wins, draw at home) - We had a competitive tour in SA, lost 2-1, with an injury depleted team and players who'd never wear green again involved, beat NZ and Aus in the Autumn too.
2017 (3 wins, none away from home) - Start of the unbeaten streak that would include the grand slam.

That said, and a lot of this has been discussed in the Ireland thread, we need to trust our backs who aren't regular starters. It was clear after Italy that Murray was unfit and void of form, his mechanics were off and he wasn't playing his way back. Meanwhile Sexton wasn't playing great but he was at least having positive influences when not clearly hamstrung by his 9*, another 9 really could have changed our fortunes, Carty was working with far more time than Sexton ever got. Fortunately Murray has 7 months to get himself right, Munster have a good 9 in Mathewson so that means he doesn't have to play if not right and if he gets his mobility and strength back in his arm you'd expect him to come back firing. Sexton will be fine, he'll tear Ulster apart in a fortnight and finish the season strong with Leinster. Problem with this was that even if the half backs were on last year's form they weren't going to be able to show it, the pack looked good in Edinburgh and for 70 minutes against France, clueless for the rest of the competition. Best seesawed between marginally better than what Niall Scannell has shown in his scant opportunities in green and atrocious, if Schmidt values his presence so much bring him to the RWC as third choice hooker but the world cup is going to be all about attrition and Best hasn't proven he can play back to back internationals to a high level since the last 6n.

The few positives were Jordan Larmour, he looked more adept than he had all season with Ster and bolting into the 15 shirt isn't beyond him; Carty is another 10 option behind Sexton and Carbery; Conan finally looked very good at international level; and we have Henshaw, Leavy and Toner to come back who were all fairly vital to success at times last year.

A semi final, final, or even winning the thing hasn't all of a sudden become an unrealistic target though, they'll be going into the competition having won 23 of their previous 26 matches, (Schmidt line from yesterday) Cardiff was the only fixture they played and failed to win in the world cup cycle and the one fixture they didn't play was NZ away and a few of the guys won there with the Lions. That SA or NZ QF is looking far more daunting than it was before though, and it has never been taken for granted.

England

Before the second half yesterday I'd have had them in a comfortably better position than Ireland going into it but I'm not so sure. There's something wrong with their psyche, they were ultra pumped for Ireland and looked like the best team in the world but they looked flat in what was essentially a grand slam decider against Wales when they had worked hard for a lead and their attitude stank in the second half of a home international against their oldest rivals who'd spanked them last year. I think they've got the toughest challenge mentally to overcome (Ireland's challenge is more functional**) and any big successes the squad can draw upon will be more than two years old. There's also Ben Te'o....

I think England are the most well rounded team when it comes to skills but the brains are lacking in more ways than one. They really should be able to beat teams in a number of ways given their big pack and mix of explosive and quick backs but beyond bullying teams into making mistakes and smart kicking they haven't shown much. It's odd.

Scotland

They're not going to win the world cup, they probably won't reach a semi but they'll know that with a fit team they can take Ireland and SA if either fail to properly impose themselves on the game. Yesterday might prove to be huge for them.

France

Brunel isn't smart enough to get France out of that group unless England or, more likely, Argentina gift it to him. Any team capable of playing with a tiny bit of structure with the ability to convert territory and possession into points will beat France comfortably.

Italy

2019 won't reap any positive and groundbreaking final scores for Italy, they'd be best focusing on not ******* up v Namibia and Canada before trying to overturn the two pool b giants.




*I read someone saying yesterday that blaming Sexton's form on Murray was cheap, to blame it totally on Murray is but to suggest Sexton wasn't handicapped at all by slow and erratic service is ludicrous, look at the amount of times yesterday he was forced to rush his kicks despite being deep in the pocket. Coming from a scrum half, the 10 is absolutely entitled to blame you for things when you're providing him with substandard ball and making mistakes elsewhere, it works both ways if the 10 is shirking his responsibilities but that wasn't the case here.

** Some people are going to argue that with things like Sexton swearing and throwing the ball and POM's most memorable line of the 6 nations but I've literally seen both of them do things like that while 20 points up in relatively unimportant Ster and Munster games. The physicality was there yesterday after lacking v England we just never seemed to have any discernible plan the entire tournament, unprecedented from a Schmidt outfit. An eye-test though so anyone is entitled to rebut and disagree with me but to argue it further than that would be pointless.

I think Ireland choked against wales. It doesn’t matter how much they improve their function if they choke like that. Simply, a lot of those mistakes wouldn’t have happened if they weren’t feeling the mental pressure. On the plus side maybe sexton will learn. I don’t know how much he has played behind a pack that isn’t dominating the breakdown, hence on the Backfoot and not receiving good service? Ireland have for a very long time been exceptional at recycling their own ball, not sure about his club sides?
I wouldn't like to call it. I think NZ are the clear favourites, but Ireland, England and South Africa have all made them look vulnerable. This is Wales' best chance for a long time, but I'm still not convinced by their attack. If England can get their heads on straight I'd put them as second favourites, but that's by no means a given. We seem... brittle. Ireland need some functioning half-backs and they're good to go.

I'd expect Scotland, England, Ireland, Wales, France to all make the quarters. I don't think Scotland will get any further than that due to the draw, and France will probably implode at that point. But any of the other three could go all the way. Going by the 6N I wouldn't expect England to get past the NZ semi, though.

But it can be really hard to predict. Wouldn't want to write off Japan at home. Wales should beat Australia, Georgia and Fiji, but it's not a given by a long shot. England have to play some very unpredictable teams and have shown limited adaptability. France are France.
There is a lot of randomness in rugby:, referee calls, bounce of the ball, injuries, choice of referee for certain teams, it’s 80 minutes not infinite time...
I don’t think nz have a more than 79 percent chance of beating a given top 8 side, hence they are less than 50 percent chance of winning the whole thing. In other words they prob won’t win. Going into other world cups their odds were better.
My probability breakdown would be
Nz 29
Wales 18
Ireland 16
Sa 16
England 13
Other 8

But congrats to wales on the 6n!!!!!!
 

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Another thing to keep in mind is that there is no Millenium stadium in Japan. Wales more than any other nation have made their home stadium a fortress and playing at home seems to give them an extra 30%. Wales three away performances in this year's 6N were far from convincing. France's second half capitulation gifted them a win, unconvincing against Italy and very fortunate not to receive multiple yellow cards against Scotland in the second half which could have led to a different result.

For me, the three crucial factors to Wales's success are 1. Gatland (& Edwards), 2. Millenium stadium and 3. AWJ as captain.

whilst I agree with much of what you say
gats and edwards massive mill stad/arms park massive factor, officially the loudest stadium in the world and awj simply awesome
2 out of these 3 will be present for the world cup
plus the welsh fans will still travel enmasse

Also wales whilst weaker away, they have beaten in the last year south africa in the usa, argentina they hammered away twice, won in paris (won 3 of the last 4 games in Paris) , won in rome (gats has won every match in rome) and edinburgh....(gatland has won every single match in edinburgh too) and won 3 lost 3 drawn 1 in dublin. Twickenham wales under gats have won 3 lost 4 in six nations / world cup plus lost 2 more friendlies...Theyve lost all 4 in new zeland by margins varyng from 14 to 40 point hammering..lost all 3 in australia by margins of less than 8 points each....These results suggests wales are competitive away from home but clearly over the years their away record in the tri nations has been very poor. Though as I say the last year has seen much improvement. Rugby is about the here and now not ancient history and the recent results are more important.

Dont forget 10 of these welsh players played in the winning lions tour of australia and the draw in new zealand...this is what gats has given them, theyve actually played and won tests in new zealand and australia. that has to help their confidence.

Wales will need to deal with the heat and the extra pressure from being grand slam champions.
 
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If we assume saturdays 15 was their current first team

L Williams; North, J Davies, Parkes, Adams; Anscombe, G Davies; Evans, Owens, Francis, Beard, Jones (capt), Navidi, Tipuric, Moriarty.

when all fit

Wales 2nd team

Halfpenny steff evans scott williams owen watkin hal amos patchell rhys webb faletau ellis jenkins shingler cory hill jake ball samson lee dee nicky smith

Wales 3rd team

Jonah holmes owen lane tyler morgan cory allen luke morgan jarod evans tom williams wainwright dan lydiate jamie davies seb davies brad davies dillon lewis ryan elias wyn jones

That 2nd team has 3 or 4 british lions and seasoned test stars , 4 with over 50 caps, steff evans scores tries for fun, hapenny one of the top few kickers in the world, scott williams hell of a player, watkin looks class, amos class, scored 32 tries in 97 for dragons (a dreadful team) and 5 tries in 18 for wales , plays 15 centre and wing, patchell is more talented than anscombe , biggar and any other fly half in the uk, im ure his time will come..rhys webb world class 9 at toulon.. , , shingler scarlets legend, massive pace probably the fastest flanker in world rugby., used to hurdle and sprint also played cricket for glamorgan,, the front row is immensly powerful had loads of caps...I would expect that 15 to challenge or beat any side outside the top 5 of world rugby

The 3rd team is obviously weaker but gatland has bled the likes of jonah holmes who looked classy, tyler morgan is classy has 4 caps , cory allen has had a hat trick in one of his 6 caps, both mid 20s...luke morgan has had a few caps and looked good...tom williams looks good, lydiate has done it all , 2 grand slams , lions tours, 50 odd caps, jamie davies olympic silver medaliist and scarlets legend , seb davies again gats has given him several caps he looks born for test rugby, brad davies has 30 odd caps, again that front row is immesnely strong.
I think the front is suddenly the strongest area in welsh rugby, weird

Overall theres a lot of quality in these 3 teams, maybe not the superstar shane williams or gareth edwards but everyone is quality, everyone has a degree of experience and there are loads of experienced leaders, AWJ immense leader, ken owens scarlets leader, jon foxy has done captaincy a fair bit, as has parkes, biggar too, webb, lydiate all have been captains.
 
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Umaga's Witness

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Current bookies odds:
NZ - 11/10
England - 5/1
Ireland - 6/1
Wales - 7/1
South Africa - 7/1
Australia - 14/1
France & Scotland - 33/1
Argentina - 40/1

I don't know what Wales were prior to the tournament but they've cut their odds considerably, Ireland and England have swapped from pre tournament odds. Interesting that the math nerds haven't put as much weight on the tournament than us self identified experts are though! :p

There some big margins for the bookies in that; adds up to over 150 percent likelihood that someone will win the World Cup. So can divide those odds by 1.5 to see what they really think the probabilities are. Means they are predicting a 61 percent likelihood that the all blacks will win, or about 8/5 in your terminology.

I actually imagine their margins are larger this far out because they don’t want to get caught out by odds changing too much thus allowing people to hedge themselves. The probabilities will be built on longer term views at this stage , eg results over the last 4 years may all contribute, to account for that variation in form over time.
 

RedruthRFC

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There some big margins for the bookies in that; adds up to over 150 percent likelihood that someone will win the World Cup. So can divide those odds by 1.5 to see what they really think the probabilities are. Means they are predicting a 61 percent likelihood that the all blacks will win, or about 8/5 in your terminology.

I actually imagine their margins are larger this far out because they don’t want to get caught out by odds changing too much thus allowing people to hedge themselves. The probabilities will be built on longer term views at this stage , eg results over the last 4 years may all contribute, to account for that variation in form over time.


Take a look at Betfair. Enough has been traded that the market is pretty well formed and is bettig to 103%.
 

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If eveyone’s fit, I’d be thinking along the following lines. Compromises to be made in terms of captaincy and defensive shape in the backs and I also want a bench to seriously up the ante.

1. Mako
2. Hartley (c)
3. Sinckler
4. Lawes. Or Itoje, don’t mind which
5. Kruis
6. Underhill
7. Curry
8. Wilson
9. Youngs. I suppose
10. Ford
11. May
12. Faz
13. Slade. Just wish he could play 12 as well on grass as on paper.
14. Coka
15. Watson

16. George
17. Genge
18. Williams
19. Itoje
20. Binny
21. Care
22. Tuilagi
23. Daly

Coka’s the only real gamble. In fact the back 3 feels like the hardest area to choose. In my world Brown travels.
 

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If eveyone’s fit, I’d be thinking along the following lines. Compromises to be made in terms of captaincy and defensive shape in the backs and I also want a bench to seriously up the ante.

1. Mako
2. Hartley (c)
3. Sinckler
4. Lawes. Or Itoje, don’t mind which
5. Kruis
6. Underhill
7. Curry
8. Wilson
9. Youngs. I suppose
10. Ford
11. May
12. Faz
13. Slade. Just wish he could play 12 as well on grass as on paper.
14. Coka
15. Watson

16. George
17. Genge
18. Williams
19. Itoje
20. Binny
21. Care
22. Tuilagi
23. Daly

Coka’s the only real gamble. In fact the back 3 feels like the hardest area to choose. In my world Brown travels.

On the Slade at 12 point, he does ‘seem’ a better fit for inside centre... has it not worked out for him there? I know he had one or two of his early England games there but in fairness it can take a few games for a player to acclimate to test match rugby. Now he has found his feet at the level, maybe he should be given another try there.
 

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along with josh adams, slade was the find of the championship...He was superb. few other new stars on the scene with ntamack and penaud too.
 

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On the Slade at 12 point, he does ‘seem’ a better fit for inside centre... has it not worked out for him there? I know he had one or two of his early England games there but in fairness it can take a few games for a player to acclimate to test match rugby. Now he has found his feet at the level, maybe he should be given another try there.
Yeah, he's only had a few games there for Exeter and England, and never looked comfortable. But he's never been given a decent shot at it, just the odd 60 minutes here and there, usually whilst swapping with his OC as often as not.
I don't think he's been tried at IC at all since giving up on being a FH either. I also know he's expressed that henlrefers OC and FH to IC - but then every players prefers the position they've played most which bares no particular relation to where they play best.

Mind you, Rob Baxter does seem to like playing people away from their position-of-best-fit.
Slade is an IC all day long. Plays OC.
Nowell is an OC all day long (or FB). Plays wing.
Campagnaro is a world class player. Struggled to make the bench.
Kvesic and SSimmonds are OSFs all day long. Plays #8.
Ewers is a #8 all day long. Plays BSF.
Armand is a BSF all day long. Plays OSF.

It's one of the reasons I don't want Baxter lined up for England. I think he's excellent at a simple game plan, executed well, and getting the best out of reasonable players. But he's yet to get a single top-quality player and really get the best out of him (Slade may yet get there. But Nowell, LCD, Devoto should all be much further along now, Cordero was this good before arriving), his game plan is too set in stone, and he has this blind spot about player positions.
 

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Yeah, he's only had a few games there for Exeter and England, and never looked comfortable. But he's never been given a decent shot at it, just the odd 60 minutes here and there, usually whilst swapping with his OC as often as not.
I don't think he's been tried at IC at all since giving up on being a FH either. I also know he's expressed that henlrefers OC and FH to IC - but then every players prefers the position they've played most which bares no particular relation to where they play best.

Mind you, Rob Baxter does seem to like playing people away from their position-of-best-fit.
Slade is an IC all day long. Plays OC.
Nowell is an OC all day long (or FB). Plays wing.
Campagnaro is a world class player. Struggled to make the bench.
Kvesic and SSimmonds are OSFs all day long. Plays #8.
Ewers is a #8 all day long. Plays BSF.
Armand is a BSF all day long. Plays OSF.

It's one of the reasons I don't want Baxter lined up for England. I think he's excellent at a simple game plan, executed well, and getting the best out of reasonable players. But he's yet to get a single top-quality player and really get the best out of him (Slade may yet get there. But Nowell, LCD, Devoto should all be much further along now, Cordero was this good before arriving), his game plan is too set in stone, and he has this blind spot about player positions.

As I don’t watch much Prem I wasn’t aware of this Baxter idiosyncrasy. Considering how well Exeter have done, if he actually played his players in the correct positions they would probably win everything! :p
 

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As I don’t watch much Prem I wasn’t aware of this Baxter idiosyncrasy. Considering how well Exeter have done, if he actually played his players in the correct positions they would probably win everything! :p
Just remember, the above is an "unpopular opinion" For many, the emperor is fully clothed. :)
 

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Just remember, the above is an "unpopular opinion" For many, the emperor is fully clothed. :)

Funnily enough, I just peddled another unpopular opinion on the Nations Cup thread... jinx!
 

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Just remember, the above is an "unpopular opinion" For many, the emperor is fully clothed. :)

I’m not sure. Baxter is rightly lauded for doing a great job at Exeter. It’s a club that players clearly enjoy playing at and they’ve been very successful domestically, but they’ve been nowhere near as effective in Europe and tactically, they are a very one-dimensional side (albeit hard to stop).

IMO, until Baxter shows that he can develop a more varied game plan, I don’t see Exeter improving. If anything, they may go backwards as other coaches find better ways of stopping them. He’s done brilliantly to get them to this point, but I’m not wholly convinced he can take them further. I hope he proves me wrong as he’s a likeable guy and we need more top English coaches.

Hogg might make a difference, but he’s effectively replacing Cordero, so I’m half expecting it to be a similar scenario to the current one, where plan B is to hope Cordero can create something out of nothing (which he quite often does).

Joe Simmonds may be the key. Steenson is very good for executing plan A, but if Simmonds is given more license/opportunity to run the game, I think he has the talent to have them playing a far more varied/less predictable style.
 

Umaga's Witness

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Take a look at Betfair. Enough has been traded that the market is pretty well formed and is bettig to 103%.
Thanks for that. Interesting site, didn’t know it existed. I’m thinking I just misinterpreted how to read fractional odds as I’m used to decimal odds so actually the odds posted by alpha bro didn’t have a big margin. Multiplying by 1.5 is still the right thing to do to get the probabilities though.

I thought fractional odds were payback/ down payment, not profit/ down payment
 
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