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2024 Guinness Six Nations
Where do teams stand ahead of the WC?
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<blockquote data-quote="Umaga&#039;s Witness" data-source="post: 938949" data-attributes="member: 65365"><p>There some big margins for the bookies in that; adds up to over 150 percent likelihood that someone will win the World Cup. So can divide those odds by 1.5 to see what they really think the probabilities are. Means they are predicting a 61 percent likelihood that the all blacks will win, or about 8/5 in your terminology. </p><p></p><p>I actually imagine their margins are larger this far out because they don't want to get caught out by odds changing too much thus allowing people to hedge themselves. The probabilities will be built on longer term views at this stage , eg results over the last 4 years may all contribute, to account for that variation in form over time.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Umaga's Witness, post: 938949, member: 65365"] There some big margins for the bookies in that; adds up to over 150 percent likelihood that someone will win the World Cup. So can divide those odds by 1.5 to see what they really think the probabilities are. Means they are predicting a 61 percent likelihood that the all blacks will win, or about 8/5 in your terminology. I actually imagine their margins are larger this far out because they don’t want to get caught out by odds changing too much thus allowing people to hedge themselves. The probabilities will be built on longer term views at this stage , eg results over the last 4 years may all contribute, to account for that variation in form over time. [/QUOTE]
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2024 Guinness Six Nations
Where do teams stand ahead of the WC?
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