Where do you see rugby in..50 years? 20? 10?"

[jonny24]

I was just thinking about this today. Mostly just daydreaming about if my local club ever got big enough to have our own field and clubhouse. And how absolutely freaking long that will take. Then I started thinking about rugby in general. Will the game itself change as significantly as in the last 50 years? What clubs will still be around, or leagues for that matter? With all the Heineken cup talks going on, who knows what European rugby will look like down the road?

What nations do you see evolving and becoming stronger, who will drop off?

Here's what I think.

1) North American Pro competition. It seems to be just out of reach, hopefully it happens sooner or later. Once it does I think the US might finally outstrip Canada at the national level. Hard to say with the popularity of American football

2) Maybe they'll figure out the damn scrum by then so its not just an elaborate dance before a penalty is awarded. I don't think too many other rule changes are need, we don't want to be watching league or anything.

3) Based of a train of thought I had in the Heineken cup thread. How many leagues are really needed in Europe? I think a British and Irish league could work, and a French/Italian and any other top European teams could make up another. Take the top bunch of each of those and you have your Heineken cup! I realize it's not as simple as that, due to each national union wanting representation.

What do you guys think?

 

[General Tah]

If the ARU are patient this time with the NRC then i can see the game growing massively in Australia. But allot depends on the makeup of the competition and how the ARU handle it.

 

[Big Ewis]

I don't see a single reason why Americans would drop American Football and pick up more on Rugby. Not a reason in sight. It's their number 1 sport and it's too close to Rugby for there to be a separation amongst fans. Unless you're an exotic weirdo of sorts, why would you just start watching Rugby ?...

As for Europe, Rugby will always be there. Always. No matter the crisis, economic or even identity-wise. And money will virtually always be there for major sports that are culturally innate to the different peoples, and no one will take Rugby Union away from the British Isles and France. It's too rooted even in Italy now.
So whatever the format, Rugby will always be there in the 6N countries and most probably other fine European nations like Georgia and Romania.

So I don't think there are big changes about to happen, if not perhaps for format...it may not be called the H Cup anymore, or include less or more countries, who knows...this is money oriented, and nothing else. Nothing new.

 

[Da Grappla]

Spain wins RWC...Sevens at least.

 

[Da Grappla]

I don't see a single reason why Americans would drop American Football and pick up more on Rugby. Not a reason in sight. It's their number 1 sport and it's too close to Rugby for there to be a separation amongst fans. Unless you're an exotic weirdo of sorts, why would you just start watching Rugby ?...

As for Europe, Rugby will always be there. Always. No matter the crisis, economic or even identity-wise. And money will virtually always be there for major sports that are culturally innate to the different peoples, and no one will take Rugby Union away from the British Isles and France. It's too rooted even in Italy now.
So whatever the format, Rugby will always be there in the 6N countries and most probably other fine European nations like Georgia and Romania.

So I don't think there are big changes about to happen, if not perhaps for format...it may not be called the H Cup anymore, or include less or more countries, who knows...this is money oriented, and nothing else. Nothing new.

I do see reasons for Americans dropping AF.

American Football is not a sport "for all shapes, all sizes". Let's be clear, it´s a sport for blacks, pacific islanders and the few white men who can keep up in matters of size and explosivness. East asians, cholos, indians and most whites can't do nothing to rose to professionalism.

Soccer got its spot and keeps getting bigger. Well, soccer is mostly for the contact avoider/cheater type. Or women.

Rugby is tough, but is for everyone.

If you have watched the MMA from its very beginning until now...just the same. Other physical features than the prominent in boxing are needed, so it will never be as black as boxing is.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Americans will never "drop" football...

BUT.... They don't have to in order for Rugby to become popular there.

The NFL would probably jump at the chance to have a viable professional league (domestic to the USA/Canada) to broadcast in the NFL off-season.
The grass roots foundation is not strong enough to support that yet, but it is growing very quickly.
We are still a number of years off, but I believe at some point, said US league will become a viable project for someone (not necessarily the NFL/NFL Network) to pump money into.
Although the USA does already have a contact field sport market that most developing rugby nations don't, they have the advantage of producing huge numbers of high level athletes that is unparallelled by any other country as far as I am aware.

Next season it's likely there will be eight US players in the premiership, 6 of whom for teams currently in the HC.
I could very easily see the entire USA team playing PREM/PRO12/TOP14 rugby in the next 5 years.

 

[Aristodemus]

The US needs success for it to be acknowledged by the masses but they have huge potential to do so. If I can be somewhat stereotypical, the average Joe expects the US to be one of if not the best, if they are not then they won't be interested.
Much like Australia, the dominant sport is similar to rugby and therefore people can translate skills learned elsewhere. I think the US have a good record of producing goalkeepers in wendyball as an example because the sports they play mostly involve handling skills. Rugby doesn't need to compete with American Football to succeed, it is actually a benefit to the growth of rugby.

 

[Larksea]

when I look into the crystal ball... The future is All Black

 

[norcalbuff]

Lots of dumb in this thread.

Americans don't need to be the best to like something. Soccer has grown massively here as a spectator sport and our national team still sucks.

People don't need to drop football to watch rugby. You obviously wouldn't run a pro rugby comp during football season. And football has its own issues, mostly with concussions. It's a problem on a smaller scale for rugby as well, but football has major issues with many predicting that only the poorest in the future will allow their kids to play football due to the brain injuries.

 

[norcalbuff]

Americans will never "drop" football...

BUT.... They don't have to in order for Rugby to become popular there.

The NFL would probably jump at the chance to have a viable professional league (domestic to the USA/Canada) to broadcast in the NFL off-season.
The grass roots foundation is not strong enough to support that yet, but it is growing very quickly.
We are still a number of years off, but I believe at some point, said US league will become a viable project for someone (not necessarily the NFL/NFL Network) to pump money into.
Although the USA does already have a contact field sport market that most developing rugby nations don't, they have the advantage of producing huge numbers of high level athletes that is unparallelled by any other country as far as I am aware.

Next season it's likely there will be eight US players in the premiership, 6 of whom for teams currently in the HC.
I could very easily see the entire USA team playing PREM/PRO12/TOP14 rugby in the next 5 years.

Who are the 8?

Chris Wyles - solid player for Saracens
Samu Manoa - stud for Northampton
Hayden Smith - back to Saracens
Blaine Scully - seems likely to have his contract extended at Leicester
Cam Dolan - sounds like he's close to signing a deal with a Prem club, likely Northampton

Andrew Suniula - I doubt he's back. Short term deal and he's not getting any playing time. Also not young so I think Wasps probably go younger and English. He's more likely a good 2nd division player.
***i Lamositele - academy player at Saracens. Big future but doubt he gets any first team matches next year in the Premiership
Luke Hume - impressed in trial for Gloucester but did not get a contract. Could definitely get a contract somewhere.
John Quill - had a trial with London Irish but now playing for Dolphin in Ireland. Bit of a long shot IMO.
Phil Thiel - signed with an agent and being shopped to English clubs but more of a Championship player IMO.
Nick Wallace - same as Thiel, although he's young for a prop so maybe he gets more of a look.

 

[Aristodemus]

Lots of dumb in this thread.

Americans don't need to be the best to like something. Soccer has grown massively here as a spectator sport and our national team still sucks.

People don't need to drop football to watch rugby. You obviously wouldn't run a pro rugby comp during football season. And football has its own issues, mostly with concussions. It's a problem on a smaller scale for rugby as well, but football has major issues with many predicting that only the poorest in the future will allow their kids to play football due to the brain injuries.

So which global sports are popular in the US without success? I didn't say they needed to be the best but they do need to compete with the best for the "average Joe". It is just an opinion and of course every person is an individual but let me explain why I think this, I would love the US to take rugby seriously.

In football, I tie the very slow growing popularity (as I understand it) to do with immigration from countries where football is huge, such as Mexico and other Americas nations. Money has been thrown at the US football leagues in buckets since the 70s(ish) with players like Pele and Beckenbauer achieving very little success or growth long term. They were given a WC and very nearly given another for 2020. Other sports have also thrown money at it, such as Formula one but without any drivers to compete it doesn't.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Who are the 8?

Chris Wyles - solid player for Saracens
Samu Manoa - stud for Northampton
Hayden Smith - back to Saracens
Blaine Scully - seems likely to have his contract extended at Leicester
Cam Dolan - sounds like he's close to signing a deal with a Prem club, likely Northampton

Andrew Suniula - I doubt he's back. Short term deal and he's not getting any playing time. Also not young so I think Wasps probably go younger and English. He's more likely a good 2nd division player.
***i Lamositele - academy player at Saracens. Big future but doubt he gets any first team matches next year in the Premiership

I included those 2.

Suniula I guess you could leave out.

But the fact that someone so young has been picked up by an academy suggests that we can include him with the others and assume he will have a career at premiership level.
Particularly an academy that produces a lot of very good forwards...


I know what you mean, Aristo... but I don't think they need to win the world cup to garner publicity.
Having a few successful individuals (like Samu) will do wonders for their publicity, especially at a RWC that is continually expanding as a global event.

 

[norcalbuff]

There are really only 2 truly global team sports: basketball and soccer. We dominate basketball and it's extremely popular here and soccer we do not dominate and it is relatively popular here. How well the national team does in a sport really doesn't have a ton of impact on how popular a sport is. National team success certainly doesn't hurt, but ultimately it's much more about grassroots efforts.

And for the immigrant argument, the US has always been a country of immigrants. That has little to do with the growth of soccer here. It's more about a huge increase in youth soccer between, say, 1970 and 2000. Every kid has now grown up playing the game and understands the game. Soccer is really not popular at all amongst the older generation because they didn't grow up playing it and don't understand it. As more of them die and are replaced by kids who play soccer growing up, soccer will continue to grow in the US.

The same thing is being set up to happen with rugby here, albeit to a lesser extent, with the explosion in youth rugby.

 

[Aristodemus]

I am certain that Basketball is not a global sport like football and not even top 5. Football or Wendyball is light years above everything. After that F1 is the most watched(on tv), followed by Cricket (which I completely understand is down to India). Surely RU is above basketball too, I certainly would hope so.

As I said in my original comment I am stereotyping and that is wrong, however from my visits to the US and general interactions with Americans there does seem to be a strong nationalistic tendency. A few years ago for example Indycar was far more popular in the US than F1, which I just can't understand. The only logic I can conclude is it is because no Americans are in F1.

In regards to immigrants, you are completely right that the US is a nation built on immigration. That said, I still believe that recent immigrants and the children of immigrants are also playing a large role in the rise of football.

I also said you have huge potential. USA is the only nation that I believe could be tier one is a very short period of time. Anyway, I have said what I think and just wanted to explain why I think that.

 

[Rhyer]

I think rugby will be a true international sport in 50 years. With countries like Japan, USA, Canada, Georgia, Romania, Germany etc becoming more competitive especially with the inclusion of sevens in the olympics. This will only aid in making the game more developed and hopefully more competitive when it comes to world cup time. I see a country outside the top 8 now winning the RWC within the next 50 years.

 

[ratsapprentice]

On a professional level I don't you could class basketball as a global sport.
It's played by kids and teenagers very widely though, to no-where near the same extent as football though.

 

[Big Ewis]

just can't see it happening for America and the NFL vs Rugby Union thing...at least not in the current world setting as it is now, there may be great cultural/economical/societal changes in the "near" future, but the reality right now is:
America=football, baseball, basketball, hockey, and soccer etc...
and that ain't changin too soon, no it sure ain't.

 

[Aristodemus]

Rugby Union isn't very popular in Australia though is it. The point I am making is that it doesn't necessarily have to be if other popular sports desire the same skills.

 

[ratsapprentice]

I think you're completely underestimating the sheer size of the US sports market Ewis...

If the market can sustain two professional Ultimate Frisbee leagues and a semi-pro Lacrosse league then I have no doubt it can sustain professional Rugby of some sort.

 

[alexrugby]

I don't think there will be numerous changes

Rugby is a very special game, played by very special people and supported by very special people as well

Rugby is a culture by far not for every human on earth

I hope European clubs will find out a way to create more useful tournament networks and bring club rugby onto more competitive, higher levels, improving quality of rugby further

Southerns will be as crazy about rugby as they're now

Hope that East Europeans will be more integrated in high rugby along with USA, Canada, Japanese teams

Chaball will never shave for sure