Who will Qualify for the Champions Cup last 8

[valley commando]

It looks like the 5 group winners will be -:

Toulon
Munster
Clermont
Leinster
La Rochelle

with 3 best runners up coming from -:

Scarlets
Exeter
Ospreys
Ulster
Montpellier

Not quite the glory for the English clubs and the doom and gloom for the Welsh regions so many on here were predicting.

Looks like Munster will be the only opposition to a French side winning the trophy.

 

[Which Tyler]

Interested to see that you favour Scarlets to Bath, despite being behind them in the table, and Bath having the easier remaining schedule.
Has anyone ever progressed having lost both their opening fixtures?

Not that either would get beyond the QFs of course.

Much the same questions could be asked of you place Ospreys ahead of Saracens of course.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Interested to see that you favour Scarlets to Bath, despite being behind them in the table, and Bath having the easier remaining schedule.
Has anyone ever progressed having lost both their opening fixtures?

Not that either would get beyond the QFs of course

There's also Ospreys ahead of Sarries and Munster as the only non-French contenders despite Paddy Power having Leinster as tournament favourites!

 

[Which Tyler]

From what (little) I've seen this year I'd put Munster ahead of Leinster, albeit not by much.
Both are better than some of the French teams likely to progress. I also don't feel strongly enough about which is ahead of the other to hold my opinion ahead of someone who watches the Pro14 every week.

Ospreys ahead of Sarries is really weird though at least with Scarlets he can point to Pro14 form, but has to ignore Pro14 AND Champ AND AWC to put them ahead.

 

[valley commando]

Saracens are in a pretty poor run of form and Ospreys will only get better, they beat Northampton with a number of 1st choice players missing and can turn Saracens over in the return having only got beat by 2 points when playing with a depleted team at Saracens, for me it is was an easier choice predicting the Ospreys than the Scarlets progressing.

 

[Which Tyler]

That is some really twisted logic. Actually, it's not really logic, it's wishful thinking to claim that Os and Scarlets are currently looking like qualifying. They may, but they're far from favourites to be group runners up.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

From what (little) I've seen this year I'd put Munster ahead of Leinster, albeit not by much.
Both are better than some of the French teams likely to progress. I also don't feel strongly enough about which is ahead of the other to hold my opinion ahead of someone who watches the Pro14 every week.

Ospreys ahead of Sarries is really weird though at least with Scarlets he can point to Pro14 form, but has to ignore Pro14 AND Champ AND AWC to put them ahead.

That's fair. I'm not sure a whole lot would agree though, with extreme bias I have Leinster comfortably better than Munster and would point to beating them in a game that never felt like it could have a different result and Leinster having, in my opinion, improved more of the two sides since then. If I had enough money to be a betting man I'd be betting on Leinster for this competition too after Sunday's and Monday's games.

Rating the O's as highly as that would make me believe that VC rates English sides more than he'd like to admit their form chart read LLLLWLLWLL so if beating an English side 10th in the prem is enough to result in them being in a position where they'll back up the result this weekend and improve to beat Sarries and Clermont your clubs would have to be perceived as being **** hot!

I reckon it'll be
Clermont
Leinster
La Rochelle
Toulon
Munster

Sarries
Ulster
Exe

 

[valley commando]

That's fair. I'm not sure a whole lot would agree though, with extreme bias I have Leinster comfortably better than Munster and would point to beating them in a game that never felt like it could have a different result and Leinster having, in my opinion, improved more of the two sides since then. If I had enough money to be a betting man I'd be betting on Leinster for this competition too after Sunday's and Monday's games.

Rating the O's as highly as that would make me believe that VC rates English sides more than he'd like to admit their form chart read LLLLWLLWLL so if beating an English side 10th in the prem is enough to result in them being in a position where they'll back up the result this weekend and improve to beat Sarries and Clermont your clubs would have to be perceived as being **** hot!

I reckon it'll be
Clermont
Leinster
La Rochelle
Toulon
Munster

Sarries
Ulster
Exe

 

[valley commando]

In reply to Alpha -:
As explained already Ospreys had a severally depleted team when gaining a bonus point and loosing by just 2 points at Saracens, with a full side to pick from they are well capable of winning the return at home and effectively knocking the Tommy Cooper fan club out of the comp.

 

[Groundhog]

I think if we can grind out a tough away win in England next weekend like Leinster did ill consider us worth a shout but how Leinster adapted their game to Exeter really impressed me. Not sure we can do the same to Leicester. Clermont look insanely strong this year though hard to look past them, but Leinster could do a job if they met in the final I feel.
La Rochelle are looking way stronger than I'd anticipated. Would be my pick for a total wildcard.

 

[Big_Grumper]

I can't see beyond one of the French teams right now and think it'll be an all-French final.

Sarries are in a poor vein of form and look increasingly beatable. I'd back Exeter to scrape through, though the Welsh clubs could pull off a surprise. The Irish duo remain strong - particularly at home.

 

[FrenchFan]

Shud be at least 1 Irish in the last 4. Possibly 2. Munster and Leinster look strong. Leinster are my favourite to lift the Cup. Clermont shud make the last 4 too. They've fallen behind in Top 14 - hard to catch up now in 9th position. Might focus on Champs Cup instead.

Tall order for La Rochelle to chase both comps esp. as this is their 1st time in Champs Cup. They don't have the depth of the bigger squads. They will have to make a choice at some stage if they want survive the last race in Top 14.

If they get a home 1/4 for their first participation it'll be amazing for them.

Can't see an all French final.

 

[munstermuffin]

On winners. Take a note of Munster from last year. We were best team in europe from Dec to April but unfortunately that means nada. No trophy is won then

 

[FrenchFan]

On winners. Take a note of Munster from last year. We were best team in europe from Dec to April but unfortunately that means nada. No trophy is won then

there shud be a trophy for that

 

[munstermuffin]

there shud be a trophy for that

No. Because it all about peaking. Clermont probably the greatest example.

 

[FrenchFan]

Clermont are the prem ejac of rugby. It's glandular.

 

[Leinster Fan]

Leinster and La Rochelle are probably nailed on for the QFs at this point. Clermont and Munster really shouldn't let it slip through their fingers at this point either. Pool 5 is wide open and any if the three could conceivably win it.

The presence of Treviso (much improved but still the worst team in the competition) should mean that two teams get out of the group. Ospreys have raised their game in Europe this year but Saracens have the pedigree and time to get out of their current hole and grab a runners up place.

Ulster and Wasps have a chance but it looks unlikely that either could get out given the thrashings they're all taking from the French. Exeter or Montpellier could squeeze in as well.

I'd say:

• Leinster
• La Rochelle
• Clermont
• Munster
• 2 of Bath/Scarlets/Toulon
• Exeter/Montpellier
• Probably Saracens

 

[corny]

The top 4 seeds will be Leinster, Clermont, La Rochelle and Munster. All 4 of them are strong at home and will win their QF's.

Semi final
Leinster V Munster
Clermont V La Rochelle

Final
Leinster V Clermont

 

[valley commando]

I'm having a lady godiva on a Munster Clermont final.
Having checked the betting on oddschecker how the hell are the Tommy Cooper boys the same price as Clermont or shorter with some bookies ? Its bizarre that Saracens are as low as 7/2 (paddy power, bet fair) to win outright with the Ospreys as long as 250/1 with boyle sports and 300/1 with black type. I'd have thought 7/2 was more like the odds for Saracens to get out of the group.